Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 24/3/2022 17:35

The question is if you separated out the balance sheet litigation assets into a separate listed vehicle and then retained BUR as a fund management vehicle with say 10 percent of the equity in the listed fund You would then be able to buy into the pure litigation returns (but subject to performance fees) Or you would be able to buy the turbo charged but more volatile returns of the fund management/legacy BUR Not sure one way or other of the answer; it could release value but could be just a huge legal and banker fee party

[this tea tastes of chicken] 24/3/2022 17:17

Thanks for reverting

[riverman77] 24/3/2022 16:45

BUR already do a lot of third party funding through a number of external funds (as well as the sovereign wealth fund). There is always a trade off here - less risk as they are not investing their own capital, but less upside as they take a fee rather than a direct share of any wins. Third party funding can also be lumpy as performance fees are dependent on when the wins come through.

I read that the big private litigation funders mainly work on a third party funding model. However, this is much lower margin as they still have the substantial fixed costs of running the business, but with a more limited upside. Overall, I think BUR have about the right balance.

[rar100] 24/3/2022 16:16

Hi Scuba,

Yes, I invested in this a long time ago as opposed to day trading (which I haven't really done - but may well do now) So I put in a fairly big chunk of cash as I was sold on BUR being a new asset class etc etc and this was when Inv Chronicle were singing their praises (and it was a much better publication then imho)I was very impressed. So then whenever I had some spare cash I would buy more shares and the price was going up and up each time. Then came the MW attack when the share price sank like a stone and never recovered to remotely where it was, I held on and on since then, read this board which often goes into minutiae that is beyond my understanding. I'm not an accountant and too busy to try and be one - but I get the jist.
I know I'm viewed as Mr Negative to BUR, I can understand that but I've always just told the truth when I do write here. I was unlucky, it happens, and I'm not alone in this history. I wish you luck

[scubadiverr] 24/3/2022 15:15

Predictable as clockwork, and yet you just sold out at the bottom?

[this tea tastes of chicken] 24/3/2022 15:05

The Peel Hunt piece mentions third party funding model. This would theoretically reduce BURs cost of capital and move the co to a less lumpy revenue model. Obviously the SWF arrangement is in place but could anyone see the co moving to this overall (the move to Saas from lumpy revs was very beneficial to software/cloud once $CRM first introduced it)?

[rar100] 24/3/2022 14:41

Bur have already said earnings/profits will be lower than last year.
So many 'ifs' in the Peel Hunt blurb. Yes maybe Bur is cheap - but for a good reason, waiting for 7 years in some cases to reach conclusion - and not knowing whether they win or lose. Well the old adage of gamble only what you are prepared to lose is more apt to Bur than any other Co. that I can think of. It's always jam tomorrow but that day - a bit like IQE never comes along.
Like always the share price goes up prior to results and then goes very quickly down after.
That's been my experience since holding after the MW attack and took approx 50% loss after 2+ years.
Consistent good earnings from a Co. is a much better prospect than 'lumpy' unless of course money is no object and you have many years where you can afford to wait.
Mind you like most on this board it is a good trading share, predictable as clockwork, short runups in share price followed by the longer downturns when lth's get fed up and move on.

[donald pond] 24/3/2022 10:24

Rather unusual to publish a note a week before results. Yes, headline figures have been flagged but it takes some confidence.

[loglorry1] 24/3/2022 09:31

(Bloomberg) -- Peel Hunt analyst Andrew Shepherd-Barron raised the recommendation on Burford Capital Ltd. to buy from add.
• PT set to 1,000 pence, implies a 37% increase from last price. Burford Capital average PT is 1,088.50 pence.

[houseofpain1] 24/3/2022 08:07

Compelling note from Peel Hunt this morning, upgrading Bur to a buy. Summary:


Burford is a unique play with many attractive aspects, and the
value is too good to ignore. True, investors only give full value to
a devco/opco/propco mix like this when they see cash flowing in
and consistent returns. For Burford, therefore, either case wins
need to accelerate, or it moves to a capital-light model, or it goes
private. But with the shares at close to the embedded value of
757p (PHe), the only downside we see is if Petersen fails. This is
possible, and we should know more within a few months, but a
risk-weighted approach sees upside to 1,515p, with our increased
TP of 1,000p allowing for risk. We upgrade to Buy.


And on valuation:


The challenge is that public market investors typically do not like
asset developers, finding their earnings too unpredictable, giving little credit to
value creation to those using proprietary capital and/or investing in assets that are
difficult to appraise. On the other hand, this is a unique asset, and we believe the
value is simply too good. We calculate full fair value at 1,515p. Our 1,000p TP is
a weighted average of 1/3 our full fair value and 2/3 the embedded value of 757p
to allow for risk, up from 750p. Our top-end value would be even higher if
Burford moved to a third-party funding model paying management fees, similar
to its SWF deal. Or if Petersen and Eton Park win big this year.

[catsick] 24/3/2022 08:05

You may not have heard of him but he has a very large following in deep value circles, especially in Germany where he is from, 37 page report is not a small project

[nw99] 23/3/2022 21:06

Never heard of it

[catsick] 23/3/2022 12:52

Very nice report out written by undervalued-shares , I would highly recommend subscription to his service for 49 usd a year you get very in depth reports and he is highly followed so this should move higher

[williamcooper104] 18/3/2022 22:04

Litigation Finance: The VCs Of The Justice System https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496435-litigation-finance-vcs-justice-system-burford-manolete?source=copyToPasteboard

[divmad] 18/3/2022 17:44

The intra day fluctuations of Bur are quite whimsical. I'm learning how to benefit from them, though.

[williamcooper104] 18/3/2022 17:38

It's often tanked for no real reason in the morning and then recovered in the afternoon - though yesterday was more extreme

[three black crows] 18/3/2022 17:07

In at 637 out at 703 yesterday.
Should have kept a little longer and sold today.
Was surprised it returned back to this low level. Some one once said to me, never fall in love with a stock, everyday potentially is a trading day

[williamcooper104] 18/3/2022 16:56

Well done for holding it a bit - I got in at 640 but was out about 40 mins later at c670 Added to the long t hold a little at 640

[donald pond] 18/3/2022 16:20

Closed my spreadbet 650 to 715 in 2 days. Will do it again on the next shakedown

[lomax99] 18/3/2022 12:43

Burford Capital are appearing on Shares Magazines Investor evening on Wednesday 6th April.

[donald pond] 17/3/2022 21:44

They are "plains" because they are featureless, not because they exist in 2 dimensions only, as a plane does.

[riverman77] 17/3/2022 17:21

We already know this year's results will be nothing to shout about. The best hope is that they confirm some big new case wins since the start of the year. Otherwise we'll have to wait until late summer for the next update (unless something happens in Peterson before then).

[williamcooper104] 17/3/2022 17:07

Lawyer math is legendary - number of defective RPI rent review clauses I've come across over the years

[planit2] 17/3/2022 16:59

That's a harsh post.

Lawyers are normally good with English, it's their maths I have always had trouble with.

There are 2 downtrends to break through - shorter term at 730 and then 790 for the one since April 21.

Earnings last year seem to set off a rally or was there some news?
Hopefully get a good rise this year.