Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[tnt99] 16/3/2022 13:07

In my view mms are pushing it down to catch stop losses because they know they will do well when this goes up to the moon??!!

[loglorry1] 16/3/2022 12:58

Feels like news leaking from somewhere though. It's been drip drip down all day.

[williamcooper104] 16/3/2022 12:55

Yep; in addition to being a long long term hold it's also been a long term in and out trading play Reasonable liquidity and no stamp duty

[nigelmoat] 16/3/2022 12:52

Mr market regularly walks this down and up on no news and thin trade. Watch for the large buys reported at end of day!

[williamcooper104] 16/3/2022 12:51

Time for a trading position

[lomax99] 16/3/2022 12:51

Adding more

[lomax99] 16/3/2022 12:49

mm's with an order to fill?

[divmad] 16/3/2022 12:36

What happened?

[williamcooper104] 16/3/2022 12:34

Wonder why the drop given markets up

[donald pond] 16/3/2022 12:14

Well I'm adding here

[loglorry1] 16/3/2022 12:03

@Flare1 you can assume YPF and the state are one and the same.

[donald pond] 16/3/2022 10:30

This was from the recent Numis note:

● Given the extensive period for expert discovery and the open and shut nature of the
case, in our opinion we expect a Summary Judgement
● Should this not occur we would expect a brief trial and do not expect Judge Preska to
accept any time wasting
● Upon losing the case we would expect Argentina to appeal and the Judge to ask for
a bond of the amount of the initial award
● If this is paid the award is secured by the court
● If not, it is likely Burford will be able to start collecting its award while the appeal is
heard

[flare1] 16/3/2022 10:22

9 hrs ago Sebastian Maril (Twitter) posted:

The Maxus case is against YPF and YPF pays.

The case for the expropriation of YPF is against the State and YPF and the State pays.

[loglorry1] 16/3/2022 10:13

@donald do you have a link to this. It is as William says very interesting. I remember in the UK fighting Lloyds over their ECN case where they called 16% bonds cheaply. Lloyds lost the case but then won on appeal. As bondholders nothing happened between winning and the appeal. This is slightly different obviously. I don't know how it works in the US.

I was also involved with Leaf Green Energy in the US. They lost originally but then won on appeal. Again different as they only received compensatoin when they won on appeal.

[flare1] 16/3/2022 10:02

So, let the people take out their wrath out on the elected Politicians who put Argentina in this financial position. It's quite simple really, these people allowed the expropriation of YPF to go ahead (for their own personal gain) during their time in post. It's now time for the Sheriff to collect, the politicians always knew that this would happen but chose to ignore it - a bankrupt country or not.

[williamcooper104] 16/3/2022 09:53

Thanks; interesting

[donald pond] 16/3/2022 09:18

Not for an appeal William, you have to give the court something acceptable as security for the entirety of the judgment

[loglorry1] 16/3/2022 08:25

"There is also, the following week, judgment expected by the same judge against Argentina in the Maxus case, for $14bn"

Add that to the bill then !!!!

[williamcooper104] 16/3/2022 07:09

Do you not need to just post security for the other sides legal costs?

[donald pond] 16/3/2022 06:43

Because the judge has allowed both sides to apply for summary judgment, the facts themselves are not in dispute, and the judge's ruling is expected as early as 24 June. If Burford win there can be no appeal without the defendants posting security at court in the sum of the judgment.There is also, the following week, judgment expected by the same judge against Argentina in the Maxus case, for $14bn.

[loglorry1] 15/3/2022 22:10

How do you know it will be over by the end of summer? I think it will slip but maybe not.

[donald pond] 15/3/2022 22:09

Well, it won't take a long time to win, it will be over by end of summer at the latest. Enforcement is a longer process but BUR know all the levers to pull

[loglorry1] 15/3/2022 22:06

But what you are effectively saying is that the IMF will be happy to lend Argintina the money to pay a settlement (over and above what they have recently agreed). The reason being that the IMF want to see Argintia attract foreign investment. I think that is a bit naieve - but it's possible.

You don't seem to acknowledge that Argintina needs oil to run its economy. If YPF exports its production then they will have to import from somewhere else and pay international prices. It would be rather perverse todo that but in so doing the petrol pump prices go up and the government would be voted out. It simply isn't pragmatic to say this.

"Choosing not to pay a US judgment that has been to the Supreme Court is not without implications" Very true but putting up taxes, petrol prices, not paying pensions, cutting pay for public sector workers is also not without implications. That's the choice an Argintine gov face which is why I think they will do everything they can to delay a judgment and cling to any hope they have of delaying it. Furthermore, if they did pay and then cut public services how do you think that plays in the polls?

My position is that BUR have a strong case but it will take a long time to win and even then a longer time to collect on.

[donald pond] 15/3/2022 21:23

One of the aims of the IMF is to make countries self-funding and in particular to create the circumstances that can attract foreign investors. It's pretty obvious that key to that is acknowledging the rights of foreign investors. Which is why I think politically there will be pressure on Argentina to pay any judgment in full. But I think a settlement more likely tbh

[donald pond] 15/3/2022 21:12

YPF is state controlled because it was stolen. That's rather the point. It is quite open to Argentina to allow it to export oil. They choose to do otherwise. Choosing not to pay a US judgment that has been to the Supreme Court is not without implications