Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[loglorry1] 15/3/2022 20:51

YPF are state controlled. They are forced by the Gov to sell to the public at lower prices. They have no choice.
Actually, its worse they import some oil and refine it. Recently they were allowed to put up local prices up a bit cos import prices were so high.

YPF cant put up pump prices because there would be riots. Argentina isnt what you think it is it seems.

[donald pond] 15/3/2022 20:36

LogBut YPF and Argentina could sell oil and gas on the international market. You cannot ignore a judgment debt because you sell all your produce at a discount to your pals. I seem to recall an Argentine naval boat was seized not long ago by a creditor. It's very hard to avoid a US court judgment debt and remain part of the global economy

[loglorry1] 15/3/2022 20:12

Donald for an ex-lawyer you do very little research. YPF sell their oil and refined products in the local market at atate controlled discounted prices.

They are just as skint as the gov and are struggling to pay their large debt burden. I hold YPF bonds in size so I should know.

You also need to understand what the IMF "loans" are. They are actually a mechanism for Argentina to have access to hard currency in return for domestic pesos and adherence to economic reforms. They are not loans per se. Google "how does the imf work". Indont believe IMF $ could be used as you say.

[donald pond] 15/3/2022 19:09

You also have to remember that we are also suing YPF, who are making a ton of money with oil at current prices. And also the IMF payments are staged over years. If they ignore a judgment that went as far as the US Supreme Court I imagine there will be pressure on the IMF to withhold payments. Lots of options, a much better position than Teinver

[bestace] 15/3/2022 18:59

There is of course precedent with the Teinver case. If Burford get a favourable judgement in Petersen I think it is highly probable they will offload their interest to a 3rd party and let them do the chasing. Perhaps that will happen after all avenues of appeal have been exhausted. Yes there will be a discount applied relative to the headline judgement amount but so there was with Teinver. They have to give a 3rd party an incentive to take on the debt chasing and the benefit from taking the money and reinvesting it into new cases will more than offset that discount.

Long way to go still, I'm not expecting a settlement any time soon.

[loglorry1] 15/3/2022 16:03

Argintina can't pay they are skint. They will drag this out in court for as long as possible which is what they have been doing todate. The longer the liability is avoided the longer they can avoid having to worry about how not to pay it. Why settle quickly when you can't pay a reduced amount. Further, if you go to court you might win against BUR and that solves the problem anyway. I see a settlement as very very unlikely but each to their own.

[xarios] 15/3/2022 15:30

you just stated the Argies are unlikly to pay, so what would you prefer; chase this around a court room for years, or take some cash now which will still be a huge win, looking how much they paid for this case.

Court win / no settlement could be 4-9B / 1.5B to Burford cash / Hedge chases for the rest and freezes assets and collects over many years.

BUR can them invest the 1B cash and get many times this money in new cases over the years.

This 'stratergy' is the opioin of many. My Maril being one of them.

[scubadiverr] 15/3/2022 15:27

The IMF have recently provided Argentina with ample liquidity. Argentina are also net exporters of wheat and oil. Both will be commanding premium prices and should encourage Argentina to attract foreign investment so that they can make the .IST of these opportunities. Recent developments imo make a willingness to settle very much more likely

[loglorry1] 15/3/2022 15:22

LOL, the old get the hedge fund to pay strategy. How much of a discount do you think they would want to take on the Argie sov risk? Probably more of a discount than the current Argie sov debt?

hxxp://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/argentina/

Furthermore, BUR are meant to be experts in collecting problematic debt from court cases. Why do you think they would want to hand that over to a hedge fund?

[xarios] 15/3/2022 15:14

If we win, then we (BUR) could sell the case to a hedge fund. Is a strong option, for a faster pay back.

So we don't technically need to wait to collect, the hedge fund of financier could pay us, then chase ARG years after via courts.

[loglorry1] 15/3/2022 14:17

I don't think any part of this case has avoided a delay. Knowing you are a ex-lawyer does explain a lot. The merits of the case are strong for BUR. You are probably attracted to this.

Getting paid however is an entirely different matter. Unless there is a settlement on offer with a very low value (to what we are expecting) the other side will use every possible means to kick the can down the road. We are just seeing another example here.

I hope you are right and they have agreed a settlement with a bit price ticket but they still have to collect.

[scubadiverr] 15/3/2022 14:13

MoneyWeek has just given BUR a buy recommendation.https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604549/a-selection-of-attractive-stocks-for-troubled-times

[donald pond] 15/3/2022 10:36

Because I'm an ex lawyer log. When a timescale for trial is set delays are usually the result of negotiations (or the judge being double booked)

[scubadiverr] 15/3/2022 10:33

He's not the only one. Surely now is the time if they are to minimise thier liability.

[loglorry1] 15/3/2022 10:20

Only you donald would see a delay as possibly meaning a settlement.

[donald pond] 15/3/2022 09:58

https://twitter.com/sebastianmaril/status/1503665956836585481?s=212 week delay. I wonder why? There's always a chance parties have agreed because settlement is close and they want to focus on that

[williamcooper104] 14/3/2022 19:42

Interesting Always thought Argentina was a basket case economy; but of course there's a lot of wheat in that basket + other commodities Latin America: region benefits from new commodity supercycle https://on.ft.com/3i76Dz3

[papy02] 14/3/2022 17:51

They’ve explained in the past that the nominal dividend is to avoid being automatically excluded from some fund mandates?

[tnt99] 14/3/2022 17:26

All the Russian shenanigans should make for a lot of large cases to be provided for burford to conclude might even be able to get a few large yatchs out of it ? Payouts

[williamcooper104] 13/3/2022 23:49

$24m is more than the initial investment in Peterson (IIRC) It is inconsequential in terms of anyones BUR shareholder return Thus no point paying it

[maddox] 13/3/2022 21:21

Hi planit,

BUR had $300m cash in-hand at the year-end, plus additional capacity in their managed funds. They also have access to the US debt market - they raised $400 last March. Hopefully, we'll see an acceleration in realisations, as the Covid impact wanes, but they managed $236m in the year.

So, their cash position is strong and the dividend pay-out of c. $24m is inconsequential in the overall picture.

[williamcooper104] 11/3/2022 12:43

Yep; that's always a risk Hence why always thought it was silly for Bur to ever pay a dividend

[planit2] 11/3/2022 11:58

We are at the beginning of this cycle so expect all this craziness to continue. There are stresses in the system all over the place and individual actors will be making decisions that will cause litigation.

I just feel this general environment is going to bring up all sorts of opportunities for Burford. The only downside might be the capital requirements of expanding operations.

Anyone got any views on this, could we end up in a situation where business is good but the markets are worried about Burford's ability to generate cash?

[divmad] 11/3/2022 09:12

What on earth was the UK business department thinking when it allowed a Chinese Communist Party-controlled entity to take over the LME?

[donald pond] 11/3/2022 08:22

At the risk of boring people, the short was taken out by a Chinese company that is the worlds biggest nickel producer. The counterpart is believed to be a western commodity dealer, with some naming GLEN. If the deal had been upheld it would have bankrupted 1 or 2 medium sized Chinese banks and the counterparty had allegedly offered to accept the mine as well in part settlement. So it is going to be a huge case. And there will be hundreds of other claimants. Feels like it has BURs name all over it to me