Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[1aconic] 19/11/2019 09:11

DJ is spot on again. Questions about where the share price will go or finger in the air answers are equally pointless. Nobody knows... if they did, they'd be busy on their carribean island rather than posting here.

Short term, irrational price movements (in both directions) are largely inconsequential to the long term picture if that's what you're interested in. There are far too many shysters around willing to exploit people's fear short term. As getting rich said, even the biggest of the lot only thought he'd be able to shake the price down to around £11. However, institutions are generally too scared of headlines and bad publicity (GAM dumped it's entire bond holding at a huge loss following the MW attack - was that done in investor's interests or in the interests of protecting their own reputation?). Many are still staying away... for the moment at least. To me, that shouts as the type of buying opportunity that doesn't come around too often in this lifetime. I don't have as many shares as DJ, but since the short attack I've been added a few thousand to my existing holding. A few short term ups and downs of 10 or 15% don't bother me and I'll ride those out with the hope that long term BURF will continue to deliver value and rely on the market switching to its long term weighing machine capacity. Ultimately though, we can't predict what will happen to any company and everyone should do their own research and come to their own conclusions based on their own situation. That should hopefully also allow you to keep firm through the occasional short term up/down that will hopefully prove inconsequential in the big scheme of things.

The nature of BURF's business and the relative shortage of information means it's harder to value than more traditional companies. But there are some good discussions around - check out the one on cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca from before the MW attach. That gave a reasonably balanced overview of the bull and bear cases (relative to a share price of £18).

[gettingrichslow] 19/11/2019 00:00

I think Djderry has it about right. And consider this - the fiercest critic of all, Carson Block, was himself BUYING at between £11 and £12! So if he thinks it’s worth in excess of £12 what is it actually worth??! My view is this will be above £15 by March 2020 and above £18 by August 2020. I could be wrong but I’m confident I’m not.

[meanwhile] 18/11/2019 23:23

djderry says :-
"T34,I have absolutely no idea.No one has.One needs to be comfortable with uncertainty."

We can all guess though. My guess is below £2.

[djderry] 18/11/2019 22:57

T34,I have absolutely no idea.No one has.One needs to be comfortable with uncertainty.Don't look to the financial press for any direction either.Consider this:IC had Burford as a 'buy'at £16 and £19.76.Now they have them as a 'hold' at £8.50!And remember,nothing has changed.The company is doing exactly the same business it was before the shorter attack.A billion quid knocked off the valuation because so called investors bailed out.They had no belief,conviction or research done.They were mostly invested because the shareprice was going up.When it started going down,they fled for the hills.All the company needs to do is focus on executing their due diligence capacity,continuing their selectivity and maintaining a judicious balance sheet.I continue to add to the tens of thousands of shares I own.None of the above means I'm right.

[gettingrichslow] 18/11/2019 20:19

Meanwhile is more than skittish! He has a nervous breakdown every time Melrose falls a few percent and takes months to regain his composure!! He is best sticking to his pipe and slippers.

[lazg] 18/11/2019 20:19

It is very hard to predict the profitability of any single case. The advantage is the portfolio idea. If the case habe been vetted correctly, on average this should work out. I have no idea what the correct price for BUR is, but its certainly a profitable deal.

[t 34] 18/11/2019 20:07

dj
Where do you see the share price in 3 years ????

[djderry] 18/11/2019 19:47

O ye of little faith.As usual,most on here are short-termers looking for reassuring.I seem to remember a commentary in the results,perhaps 2016,when it was suggested that those of a skittish nature should invest elsewhere.Do you understand the asset class and how it performs? Six month and twelve month figures are quite useless.Litigation matters can take years to mature.And the cases that take longest are (often) the most lucrative.I couldn't care less about updates .Just do proper due diligence and the rest will take care of itself.

[rar100] 18/11/2019 18:42

Time for a hearing test then

[george stobbart] 18/11/2019 16:37

Corbyn will nationalise Burford Im hearing and BUR price is heading to zero.

He wants to take litigation finance back in public control and McDonnell will be the judge for all cases.

[rar100] 18/11/2019 15:32

Meanwhile,

I don't know why you bother to post here unless you are are short on BUR and trying to convince others to sell up so you don't lose.

[lazg] 18/11/2019 14:15

nothing much going on today, why?

[meanwhile] 17/11/2019 22:40

"BUR believe quarterly reporting is a bad idea as it encourages too much focus on the short term."

Take out 'on the short term', and I can believe it.

[mad foetus] 17/11/2019 18:48

Burford have never updated the market on trading, yet at every single set of results smashed analyst expectations. And in the US listing they have said in investor meetings that under SEC rules they are expressly forbidden from providing updates once the process has begun.Personally, I think we need a trading update and now is about the right time. We need a quarterly update to fill the gap between results, but BUR believe quarterly reporting is a bad idea as it encourages too much focus on the short term.

[meanwhile] 17/11/2019 18:42

winsome, rar100,

Ask yourselves why there are no updates on trading, or on any of these more specific items of their business that you mention.

When you've answered your question correctly, you'll know it's time to bail out.

[winsome] 16/11/2019 13:27

A trading update even just to let investors know how much cash they've pulled in since July and how many investments they made since then would be good. And respectful to investors considering the rough ride they've had lately. The share price won't go anywhere far until there is more news from the company.

[wildchild] 15/11/2019 19:15

Yep. Seemed pretty quiet volume all day, but just fell away near the end. No big trades. Still, lets hope for a better week next week.

[scubadiverr] 15/11/2019 17:35

I was expecting an up day despite it being Friday. I certainly can't forcast price movements. Still believe it should and will be more than 1500 by early next year. I won't be selling that's for sure

[t 34] 15/11/2019 16:49

Quite a fall today .

[pal44] 15/11/2019 15:21

low volumes mm shaking a few GLA ..

[stockvalue] 14/11/2019 23:15

Don't get me wrong. I am just saying the likelihood is steadily increasing from now on.

[dgdg1] 14/11/2019 23:04

Maybe. I would certainly be happy if you prove to be right.

[stockvalue] 14/11/2019 21:22

@dgdg1. From my experience companies in general set a longer timetable because they don't like to disappoint the market. From my perspective it's noteable that a NY hedgefund positioned itself via CFD's. I mean there is always asymetric information.

[dgdg1] 14/11/2019 20:43

It would be nice if it could be that fast but I must point out what Burford said on 15.8.2019 in the RNS: "We are in fact already engaged in the early stages of the process to seek a US listing, and have been since well before recent events. There are some preliminary legal matters to resolve, given that there has never been a litigation finance provider listed in the US, and that process may take several months. Thereafter, the usual SEC registration statement process will need to be completed. Our hope would be that we could complete the process by the end of the first quarter of 2020 or as soon as reasonably practicable thereafter, although that timetable cannot be assured."