Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[galatea99] 07/8/2019 20:01

Yes, Burford will be on the defensive, whatever they say. MW will always be able to be more aggressive and provocative than a listed company can ever be. The more Burford claims good faith and good practice in its responses, the more MW will be able to make fresh statements aimed at picking more holes and destroying Burford's arguments and responses, until as much money as possible has been extracted from the situation. No doubt, MW will have this already gamed out. And that presupposes that there are not even more revelations to come from others apart from MW. It also presupposes that the SWF, the bondholders and the institutions that took up the placings can all still be kept on board.

Burford really cannot expect to recover the situation with words alone. I'd expect all those third-party stakeholders to be setting out their own wishlists as well.
Imo, Burford will have to bite the bullet and go full out with a whole panoply of measures, including very strong director share purchases, the recruitment of a different CFO,an accelerated placing to cover their financial needs for a year at least, a commitment to quarterly reporting, a further sale of Petersen, a commitment to list in the US by the end of the year, new strong independent directors on a standing "revenue determination" committee.

Perhaps even an independent special audit as well.

Even with all that, it will take a while, a long while, to recover the market's trust. Unless radical changes are made, Burford will, imo, never get out of this situation. The very same charges will inevitably come back time and time again.

[hindsight] 07/8/2019 19:59

Personally think Graheam Neary sums it up to a tie for me. Back to reality on price. Think as we all do when having a super run, book next weeks profits today, think we are invincible, then the bad trade comes again.

[chimers] 07/8/2019 19:54

Nahhh Bill I will give this one a pass ;)

[tracy_moore] 07/8/2019 19:52

Who gives a toss about what Chimers does or says she does , good luck in finding anyone. Sideline Troll always has been .

[billthebank] 07/8/2019 19:38

Not gonna buy then Chimers

[purplepelmets] 07/8/2019 19:37

If they had any serious rebuttal they would have trotted it out by now. Woody is looking like a roight plonker. Talk about the reverse Midas touch, everything he touched turns to sh1t.

[ronin92] 07/8/2019 19:37

@iLeeman Regrettably, Invesco uses "refute" in the weaker sense of the word (as in "deny") rather than its stronger sense of "disprove". I think they will need something better than mere denials to deal with the situation.

[edmondj] 07/8/2019 19:33

Muddy didn't publish until 08:30!

Better to see considered substance from Burford, if they have it.

;-)

[chimers] 07/8/2019 19:31

Muddy dont need to say anything more and wont for ages.

Their work is done.

They will allow the market to chew over it for as long as suits them which could be weeks.

MUDDY hold all the cards.

BUFFOONFORDS have to try and put the fire out but they are now being watched BY EVERYONE.

The tide has gone out we can now see who was swimming with no shorts on!!

[mister md] 07/8/2019 19:24

25th July:
Christopher Bogart, Chief Executive Officer of Burford, said:

"Burford has had a momentous first half, with profits exceeding $200 million and assets surpassing $2 billion for the first time. Income from our core litigation investment portfolio was driven by a blend of attractive cash realisations across multiple vintages. Growth in demand for our capital and our capacity to respond with innovative new solutions are the hallmark of our outright industry leadership and reflected in record new investment commitments of $751 million. We are excited about the outlook for the legal finance market and our unique ability to capture the opportunities we observe."

[tracy_moore] 07/8/2019 18:45

//www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/900291/burford-capital-s-mojo-not-working-after-muddy-waters-short-attack-900291.html


Worth reading the full article, as opposed to the fired up panicked shorters rent boys.

[sogoesit] 07/8/2019 18:41

An apt blog post for the day from BUR:



;-)

[sammyshares] 07/8/2019 18:37

After hours sells at 544

[62rick] 07/8/2019 18:25

Can someone explain, from their 2019 interims, page 9, 'Total ongoing investments' $654.1 million. Page 20, Balance sheet, 'Investments' $1,768.4 million.

So does that mean $1,114 million of unrealised fair value gains?

[nigwit] 07/8/2019 18:21

Just published by Investor's Chronicle.

Full story for subscribers here



But here's the synopsis

"IC View

Until recently, Burford was the largest stock on Aim by market capitalisation. There are two important reasons why we, along with Invesco and many other investors have found ourselves bullish. First, because we accepted the litigation finance model requires an above-average trust in management judgement and accounting opacity. Second, because there were plenty of external sources of validation, including the group’s ease in raising fresh equity from multiple sources, clean audits from EY, and a team composed of top-flight litigators. The Muddy Waters report suggests both positions may have been naive. It is also categorically bad news, made worse by Burford’s initial reaction, though we are struggling to square it with a share price reaction that looks almost terminal. The CEO and CIO intend have announced their plans to buy shares, but we downgrade our speculative call (415p, 6 October 2016) as we await a full and proper response from the company. Hold.

Last IC View: Buy, 1,552p, 25 Jul 2019"


(I've held Burford since £3.50 and intend to stay in for the long term. I expect them to come out fighting alongside Invesco but, IMV, MW will not have issued today's report against famous lawyers without due diligence involving equally expert legal advice so I think Burford may need to swallow some pride and make some strategic changes to assuage the market.)

[bbmsionlypostafter] 07/8/2019 18:15

Makes sense. Hopeful mugs, day traders & risk lovers will be buying in in the meantime.

[ileeman] 07/8/2019 18:12

Gap up tomorrow?



UPDATE: Invesco has refuted Muddy Waters' accusation that their fund manager Mark Barnett "bailed out" one of Burford's investments.