Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[bestace] 11/5/2019 11:06

Mr foetus,

We do know something about how Burford have executed on IP investments, from the detailed investment data they released after the last finals:



Looking just at the IP cases which had concluded by the end of 2018, the results are a bit meh:

19 investments including 2 portfolios
Average duration: 2.1 years
12 investments resulting in a profit, 7 resulting in a loss of which 4 were 100% losses
Total capital deployed: $64.7m
Total recoveries: $67.9m
Therefore ROCE of just under 5%

Focusing on just the investments in the partners funds (again, this is just the concluded IP investments):

12 investments, 7 wins, 5 losses including 3 100% losses
Average duration: 2.4 years
Total capital deployed: $43.9m
Total recoveries: $40.3m
So they've actually made a net loss in the funds, not helped by one loss which resulted in a total write off of a $10.1m investment.

Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting that the ongoing and partially realised IP investments won't generate outsized returns in future, just that the track record based on their own data isn't that great.

There are still 28 IP investments which are ongoing or partially realised (18 in the funds, 10 on the balance sheet) amounting to $295.9m of committed funds of which $96.7m had been deployed and $36.8m had been recovered.

[ali47fish] 11/5/2019 08:04

has anybody got an update from IC's simon thompson please?

[mad foetus] 10/5/2019 09:46

I don't think we know but the returns can be huge: if we are suing someone in US for infringing a patent the returns could be massively disproportionate to our exposure. Also, as litigation funding is still relatively new, we probably had the pick of individuals with claims against big corporations. The corporates had probably assumed for decades that you could steal IP and then stall any legal action so again, there is huge scope, but we know nothing about how BUR has executed

[lomax99] 10/5/2019 09:41

MF - Should we expect IP cases necessarily to have a shorter turnaround time? Thanks

[mad foetus] 10/5/2019 09:20

I think Bogart is particularly excited about fund 2, which is focussed on IP cases and could bring outsized returns, but we have to be patient as returns will come suddenly during the harvest period

[mad foetus] 10/5/2019 09:15

We do know that they have hardly ever written down any case that they have previously increased the value of. We also know that the funds have a waterfall fee structure so BUR only get paid when they wind down and investors are repaid, meaning there. Is a clear source of future profit (as those performance fees will be all profit) that is currently not accounted for at all

[trident5] 10/5/2019 09:08

Arregius - with all respect you don't really know that Bur has been very conservative with their accounting - they say they have, we accept it; but it's the big risk here.

[arregius] 10/5/2019 07:58

Lines does not tell ME anything. Business does and from that perspective I am very relaxed here. Support is for those who want a positive portfolio, i can postpone gratification and increase my stake when people dont just get it. Opportunity does not come up when people buy in, just the opposite. Apart from a note which someone has pointed out (opinion) what have changed? The industry here is just starting and from the accounting perspective, BUr has always been very conservative so I am not worries about the reporting.

[arregius] 10/5/2019 07:50

Can you send it to my email? [e-mail] Thanks

[bigbigdave] 10/5/2019 07:42

Historical good support line here

[lomax99] 10/5/2019 07:07

Sorry, link not working

[alpha inu] 10/5/2019 06:56

Here's the link with a deck that Bogart presented at the Shares event.https://media.an ADVFN competitor.com/a/2019/05/1-Burford-Capital-Christopher-Bogart.pdfI thought an interesting fact was that BUR instead of applying more leverage to its balance sheet has built in leverage with its SWF deal whereby BUR puts up 1/3 of the capital but gets 60% of the return.Other than that I don't think there was any new info. Q&A also just addressed his take on Cannacord (same as BUR Statement on Website) and about the AIM listing (similar take as on latest earnings call)

[jonwig] 10/5/2019 05:58

IC is working its way through the top 100 AIM shares, and has reached No1. Conclusion:

Despite the rate of share price growth slowing since the final quarter of last year, we remain encouraged by the large amount of capital ready for deployment and the group’s track record of doing so profitably, with the portfolio generating a 31 per cent internal rate of return since its inception a decade ago. We remain buyers.

[jonwig] 10/5/2019 05:31

Jock - you should be able to see it online in a week or so.

[jockthescot] 09/5/2019 22:21

Did anyone go to the Shares investor evening yesterday where BUR were presenting?

I meant to, but couldn’t make it....

[winsome] 09/5/2019 16:54

Yes Madf, this is the certainly the essence of the stock market. Was set to bounce between 1600 and 1850 again last week but was tripped up on the way down to 1600 by CG. No one makes money when stocks stay still.

[mad foetus] 09/5/2019 16:42

It's the first vaguely decent candle we've posted this month at least

[mad foetus] 09/5/2019 14:50

It started falling before then, and everyone agrees the CG note makes no sense. No doubt will go back to £18, rinse and repeat

[trident5] 09/5/2019 14:48

Jonwig - no it's falling because of the worries raised last week.

[jonwig] 09/5/2019 14:46

In the nov-dec correction, the bonds went down with the ords (see charts in header). Now the bonds are firm.

My take on this is that the former was a general market correction which took down high performers disproportionately, and carried sell-offs in CBs.
This time it looks more like an attempt to manipulate the order book (look at the AT trades) in the face of a possible early-future market fall.
So it's the nearest you can get to a short-selling attack without actually borrowing stock. Note - there are no declarable short positions!

[minerve 2] 09/5/2019 14:36

Minerve WILL SAY WHEN!

ROFLMAO!

What a basket full of buffoons we have here, eh?

[minerve 2] 09/5/2019 14:36

Not far off 1400 now.

Puddings R us!

LOL