Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[rar100] 03/5/2019 09:38

skater

short sellers don't need to 'work with' Cannacord.

doesn't matter where the bad news comes from, it's out there

damage done, shorts move in

the 'truth' is the last thing to materialise

witness what is now happening.

In a way BUR is now on the defensive, defensive is not as strong offensive, the seeds of doubt grow quickly, (healthy veg slowly)and they are hard to get rid of

[alpha inu] 03/5/2019 09:38

Don't see BUR short interest here. Can't be significant

hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/

[minerve 2] 03/5/2019 09:35

Lessons need to be learned. Arrogance needs to be reigned in.

[minerve 2] 03/5/2019 09:27

Ooooh, short attack. Lovely jubbly.

Let's watch some squirm. Some had personal pleasure watching me deal with shorters in Kier, now it's my turn. He he.

Short this share. Come on. Let's see massive paper losses by the chimp fan boys.

[skatersav] 03/5/2019 09:26

“Co-ordinated short attack”? What evidence do you have for this? Canaccord working with short-sellers?!?! Nope! They are bag holders of the highest order. Their skin shrivels when short sellers enter the building. Their release of a note like this is highly unusual. Disclosure: no position.

[williamcooper104] 03/5/2019 09:11

Agree with the new note

But remember - analyst recommendaituins are a very poor guide

[jonwig] 03/5/2019 09:07

lomax - I think you'll find the videos of the event will be uploaded free-to-view a few days after the event.

[mad foetus] 03/5/2019 09:06

Well, BUR is now the subject of a clear Co-ordinated short attack. Bogart must see that this is now going to be the sole focus of the Shares evening. It would imo make sense for him to be prepared.

[rar100] 03/5/2019 09:01

My thanks too lomax,

I had forgotten BUR's statement that they don't comment on brokers valuations, and so I guess the adage of 'any publicity is good publicity' rings true here, I hope there will be a lot more publicity rubbishing CG's damaging comments.

A lot of damage has been done, and it's hard to repair - takes a long time imv.

[lomax99] 03/5/2019 08:54

BUR are presenting at Shares event in London on 8 May, Chistopher Bogart will be there - is anyone attending?/can they report back please. Thanks.

[lomax99] 03/5/2019 08:51

It's all noise, holding and will add, progressively, on decent dips.

[steeplejack] 03/5/2019 08:49

If 9 research notes hit a fund managers desk and only one of the nine are bearish,it's that note that will be read first.Mud sticks.If you're confident,all you can do,is ignore or use the opportunity to buy in at lower levels.

[steptoes yard] 03/5/2019 08:45

Good to hear both sides tbh.

[jonwig] 03/5/2019 08:33

Thanks for the detail, lomax.

So the issue will be fought over between broker analysts, which seem to have an 8 v 1 numerical advantage. Hence CG can argue and prove its case, revise its judgment, or just keep quiet. (the last one, I guess.)

[alter ego] 03/5/2019 08:30

thx lomax99 for posting that. Pretty clear that Cannacord are out of step.

[monions01] 03/5/2019 08:27

Arden Assoc have issued a new note this morning rebuffing the CG note.

The synopsis is:
We believe recent share price weakness presents an opportunity
to enter the market leading litigation funder at an attractive
valuation. Current market concerns surrounding an overstated
ROIC and aggressive fair value accounting are unfounded, in our
view. We reiterate our Buy rating and 2,300p price target

[lomax99] 03/5/2019 08:27

Arden PartnersWe believe recent share price weakness presents an opportunity to enter the market leading litigation funder at an attractive valuation. Current market concerns surrounding an overstated ROIC and aggressive fair value accounting are unfounded, in our view. We reiterate our Buy rating and 2,300p price target.ROIC concerns: Questions over the calculation of ROIC, particularly surrounding portfolio funding, have been brought to our attention by investors. The concern appears to be that ROIC is overstated on partially concluded portfolios. Well-publicised criticisms would seem to suggest that, on an illustrative portfolio of two cases of $10m each, conclusion of one case for $20m whilst the remaining case awaits conclusion should equate to a ROIC of nil. We disagree with this view and believe the intuitive calculation of ROIC should be 100% in this case ($20m received on $10m invested in a concluded case), as Burford currently do. The implied conclusion from the former method would be that each portfolio is immediately written off at a loss when one case concludes– incorrect, in our view.Aggressive fair value accounting: We are aware of the varying fair value accounting policies of the litigation funders and provided detailed analysis in our March note, 'Litigation, litigation, litigation'. We remind investors that a) should litigation funders have the appropriate inputs to fair value a case then they must under IFRS9 and b) Burford have historically been conservative in their valuation. To reflect the lack of a liquid secondary market Burford have historically only recognised 33% of total income one year prior to conclusion and only 0.2% of write-ups have ever turned into a loss.Valuation: We value Burford on a P/NAV basis using fair value NAV, as opposed to cash NAV which would imply that investments are only worth the capital deployed, despite working on a case for several years. The FV figure better reflects the underlying value change, in our view. Our TP of 2,300p implies a 4.0x P/NAV on forecast ROE of 22.1% (reduced in FY19 due to significant funds deployed and capital raised).

[lomax99] 03/5/2019 08:08

Since corporate governance is being aired, note that the CEO and CFO are not actually main board Directors at the Plc, so their remuneration packages are not disclosed in the AR.

[brexitplus] 03/5/2019 07:55

Mad - I’ve seen her on video at the presentations. Agree about very thorough and prompt. That’s my experience.

[mad foetus] 03/5/2019 07:53

Although I've never had dealing with her, I note she is also very prompt and thorough in responding to emails from investors.

[brexitplus] 03/5/2019 07:52

The marriage has been in the public domain for ages. On the Burford website

“Ms. O’Connell ..... is married to Christopher Bogart, Burford’s Chief Executive Officer, and has fulfilled the CFO role in their various business ventures since 2003.”

She is certainly very impressive with an excellent CV.

[williamcooper104] 03/5/2019 01:16

Yes and Enron had all the good corporate governance that you could ask you - but that said still doesn’t look goood

[trident5] 02/5/2019 22:37

Greenbury and Cadbury codes were made up by people with nothing else better to do.

[minerve 2] 02/5/2019 22:06

"When did they marry each other should be the question, although I don’t think it particularly relevant anyway."

Of course it is relevant! Whichever way you put it there is a conflict of interest! Why do we have codes like Greenbury and Cadbury and why are they recommended? Do you think people just make these things up because they have nothing else better to do? Now you can band on about professionalism and all that but it is still not really satisfactory. Today investors allow companies to get away with many things and decent governance gets thrown in the waste paper basket and the modern investor - full of ignorance and apathy - doesn't know what he is missing and what he risks.

Hey, ho.