Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 02/5/2019 09:38

There are no Burford short positions in excess of 0.5% according to shortracker.

There’s no need for Burford to make a public statement re the Cannacord note.The competing brokers (and sizeable institutional shareholders)might well ring the company and ask for their view about the publication and request clarification about some of the points ie about the return on capital computations in particular I imagine.By all accounts,the company’s responses have stopped the rot.

[winsome] 02/5/2019 09:30

Cheers for the above, jonwig.

Anyone following the chartists would see that the share price today is around the level predicted. Its been in a trading range between 1600 and 1850 since start of the year. So the CC report has not really had an effect and is old news now. Unless it takes a further drop today then we'll be stuck in that range until the next meaningful company update.

[williamcooper104] 02/5/2019 09:13

Mano was indeed up - benefits of diversification in the sector (through Mano is more debt collector than litigation funder)

Mano cannot be described as cheap

[czeck] 02/5/2019 08:50

Mano was up 10% in early trade so this story played well in some courts.

[lucicavi] 02/5/2019 08:46

Can see 1650p today

LIT also firmer and ready to POP

[galatea99] 02/5/2019 08:36

Post from "gus 1065" on Stocko.

"Interesting discussion around Burford Capital (LON:BUR) . We’ve seen analysts making a name for themselves by offering a controversial bearish point of view on a stock before. I recall Glencore (LON:GLEN) getting a bashing a few years back when a previously credible analyst put out an extensive research piece demonstrating the equity was “worthlessR21; which knocked about 40% off an already deflated share price (down to about 70p per share as I recall). Like journalists, there’s little copy value for analysts singing from the same hymn sheet as everyone else so it’s no surprise that once they have a bear hypothesis they’ll tend to go with it rather than try and rationalise it directly with the company. Good to have a contrarian view aired but doesn’t seem to have been proven at the moment.

One possible reference point might be the extent of any “smart money” market short interest. According to my main source, there are no disclosable (more than 0.5%) short interests in Burford Capital (LON:BUR) at the moment suggesting the professional bears are absent (notwithstanding yesterday’s share price fall) . If anyone has a different source saying anything different to that please could they post."

About reflects my way of seeing this. An analyst grabbing headlines with some controversial and provocative screed, despite its very obvious shortcomings. Btw, Glencore is mentioned, its share price has actually quadrupled since it was, supposedly, about to go bust!

[lucicavi] 02/5/2019 08:19

BUR absolutely flying

[keyno] 02/5/2019 08:17

OK, Luc.... Ta.

[lucicavi] 02/5/2019 08:11

cos he has been buying mano and maybe contra pair trade nd he connected into canna

[keyno] 02/5/2019 08:04

Why Soros?

[lucicavi] 02/5/2019 07:59

BUR should get evidence that Canacord have breached chinese walls to their MM department or to their hedge fund clients and litigate against Cannacord
Now i wonder if Soros fund is a client of cannacoird

[lomax99] 02/5/2019 07:59

And that comment for PTP was for 2019.

[winsome] 02/5/2019 07:51

yes, they also said they still expect PTP to more than double next year. So at their target price they are suggesting a forward PE of around 5 or 6.

Clearly they are paid to do such reports. They don't do them for free. Who paid them to do this one, I wonder? Ultimately it could make them look rather stupid.

[stentorian] 02/5/2019 07:49

If I were BUR. I wouldn't comment on CG. I would issue an RNS saying that I would be opening up a division specialising in insolvent company litigation - the area in which CG's shareholding in MANO specialise. Watch MANO's sp/CG's equity stake plummet. Call it a form of equitable remedy.

[lucicavi] 02/5/2019 07:42

from cannacord note

For the avoidance of doubt, we see real opportunity for investors in the growth of the litigation funding market."

"Equally, we also believe BUR has built an impressive, market-leading position and is generating attractive returns."

[ayl30] 02/5/2019 07:18

CC must be embarrassed by her report as it throws doubt on their credibility as a analytical body. Was her report signed off by directors I wonder?

[winsome] 02/5/2019 07:16

The nice lady at CC seems to want BUR to fiddle the accounts. She wants ROIC to be declared for a partial return on a full investment. So come the following year when the rest of the return is made then BUR either have to claim ROIC again on the same investment (which would be flagged as suspect) or declare a ROIC of infinity (a return on an investment of zero!). Or thirdly, having to restate/correct previous year's ROIC.

Anyone else agree with that?

[jonwig] 02/5/2019 07:02

miti - why do you say the last capital raise was out of necessity? The one in October 2018?

This link suggests Merian is at 4.99%:

[miti 1000] 02/5/2019 06:57

I've read the full note and its a real vindictive hatchet job. The corporate governance concerns strike me as laughable and just indicate how the analyst seems desperate to make her mark.

The accounting issues strike me as nonsensical and I would be surprised if any other brokers agree with Canaccord. It will be interesting to read their views as no doubt they will soon be issuing responses . Although the need for future capital raises based on the previous one being out of necessity rather than for future growth require further thought.

All in all , this will be a huge buying opportunity once the sellers have had their fill. I shall fill my boots.

No need for Burford to respond publicly to Canaccord at all.

Clearly Merian have sold well below 5% and no doubt Invesco have as well as per normal.

DYOR.

[winsome] 01/5/2019 21:10

time_traveller, share prices are driven by confidence as well as performance. When confidence is knocked (and it has been a little by CC for those investors who read the headlines rather than dig into the facts) then the share price will take a hit no matter the justification.

So the share price could drop further if the market makers want to take advantage over next few days and they do love a good tree shake. And there's nothing you can do about it. Either panic and sell or ride it out.

I've read CC report and Elizabeth O'Connell's explanation, and BUR's published figures, if correct, don't lie IMO. CC's rationale is completely nonsensical. So I've not changed my view of BUR. They don't need to issue any rebuttal RNS. They are not desperate.

[time_traveller] 01/5/2019 20:45

Indeed. But what puzzles me is the not insignificant -12% off the back of a patently silly write up.

[discodave4] 01/5/2019 19:58

Not certain now or if 5% is the minimum threshold for certain voting rights.

[qruz] 01/5/2019 19:56

Surely they need to continue to state their exact holding unless it's below 3%?

Chart looks a mess, probably going to hit 1300 now