Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[extrader] 27/6/2024 14:36

Ashmore's latest :

.."Argentina:
Under International Monetary Fund (IMF) guidance, Argentina is pursuing measures to stabilise its economy and bolster foreign exchange (FX) reserves. This includes raising real interest rates to positive levels and eliminating currency controls.
As part of these reforms, the government plans to phase out a mechanism allowing exporters to sell 20% of their dollars at higher exchange rates by the end of the month.
However, inflation remains a significant challenge, projected to stay high at 69% over the next 12 months. This situation may require interest rate hikes from the current 40% levels.
President Milei's fiscal austerity measures have shown promising results, with monthly inflation reduced for five consecutive months to 4.2% in May, down from a peak above 25%.
President Milei is seeking additional IMF funding to facilitate the removal of currency controls and capital restrictions. This move aims to reintegrate Argentina into international debt markets following its recent debt restructuring in 2020.

[extrader] 27/6/2024 13:27

Sebastian Maril
@SebastianMaril
15 hours ago.

🔴Judge Preska has permitted Argentina and the judgment creditors to file additional briefs regarding the creditors’ attempt to take possession of YPF shares owned by the Republic. Argentina will submit its brief on June 28, while the creditors will file theirs on July 8. In my opinion, this move by the judge suggests that there may not be any oral arguments and that she will rule on the turnover motion based on the written submissions.

GLA

[time_traveller] 26/6/2024 14:40

Generally seems to make better gains in the approach to results, then drop or spend a couple of days thinking about slightly better ones. This is most odd- short interest seems steady and not huge. At least Labour won't have any capital gains to liberate me of! (my biggest investments were north of £16 and only piling in during covid saves me complete embarrassment).

[riverman77] 25/6/2024 09:27

Might be worth buying back just before next update if it continues to drift lower. I've been out for a while as expected to it to remain weak for time being, and suspect the YPF thing will drag on for years so can't get excited there.

[chester9] 25/6/2024 09:14

It's currently bouncing above 10 support. If it breaches that next level 9.12. Still 6 weeks to interims. Q2 23 revenue was only $44m so should smash that number, but to bring half in needs $381m in Q2 24. The hints are at a strong H2 but nothing guaranteed. I should have sold more after 12th April when £13. .It may take rest of this year to get back there if no YPF payout. Still record deployments will bring it back eventually unless you believe they have a darker plan, which I don't.

[kaos3] 25/6/2024 08:46

1st circle - gap
2nd circle 50mda and 200 mda



AND

[chester9] 24/6/2024 21:29

From Seb YPF submits its initial defense in the expropriation appeal. The oil and gas company aims to convince the Second Circuit that Judge Preska's March 2023 ruling in its favor was correct. The Republic is set to file its own brief later today.

[time_traveller] 24/6/2024 14:53

It kinda doesn't wash for management to keep this such a black box, with terrible returns for investors, while they have total insight of what's inside, and could take it private prior to large realisations.

[chester9] 20/6/2024 15:11

I took as a positive call but nothing that will drive the share price until the revenue shows up in the earnings.

[chester9] 20/6/2024 15:09

World call - Nothing new specifically.At 34 mins the message from Andrew was the portfolio is very active. He later described as supernormal level of activity.A lot of covid delayed work is still being worked through.Sundance is arbitration which will not be discussed unless agreed with Client. Do not get hooked up on 8 billion it's not like YPF..Sysco progressing but defendants putting up a fight as would be expected.He was very clear that he understands the frustration with lack of visibility of income but nothing he can do about it..No interest in buy backs as they want shares to be liquid. .No interest in increasing dividend as tax heavy in states..More than 50% owned now state side.. Portfolio current 7 Billion

[extrader] 17/6/2024 19:50

And, from Ashmore :

.."Argentina: The Senate approved President Javier Milei's first set of austerity measures with a narrow vote of 37 to 36. The measures still require approval from the Lower House before becoming law. Since taking power, Milei’s government's weakness in Congress and opposition to pension reform has hindered the implementation of his market-friendly reform agenda. The omnibus bill approval will be an important milestone, proving the government can negotiate despite its relative weak position in the legislature. The government remains committed to its fiscal consolidation agenda, targeting a zero fiscal balance for 2024. The recent plunge in inflation should help support Milei’s popularity for longer. Milei needs investments to boost GDP growth and employment before mid-term elections in mid-2025.."

GLA

[chester9] 17/6/2024 18:37

From SebThe IMF suggests that Argentina should "resolve over time" its ongoing legal proceedings to regain access to international capital markets and to ensure that the current optimism about the country's future, as reflected in sovereign bond prices, does not suffer a setback.

[375uv] 13/6/2024 09:06

Kuk1doh, that Executive Power didn't make the final version of the bill.

[kuk1doh] 13/6/2024 08:45

I read on the LSE board that there was an article in the bill empowering the president to enter into and agree settlements with international judgment creditors. I wonder if it made it through the final stages of negotiation on the bill. Anyone know?

[alter ego] 13/6/2024 07:22

reaction reported here

[hohum1] 13/6/2024 06:59

FT.com: Javier Milei’s government wins senate approval for slate of economic reforms
Can only be helpful to BUR

[375uv] 12/6/2024 16:52

I'm waiting for Judge Preska to hold her ruling and offer Argentina a Special Master (mediator). I also see Burford agreeing to stay all proceedings if Argentina agrees to sit down with the mediator.

I also could be crazy expecting all this to happen.

[lazg] 12/6/2024 15:43

@ Chester: If Preska rules in favor of Argentina on the YPF shares I expect this share to tank for some time before rebounding. Therefore, I have bought some puts to hedge that risk. I think it is unlikely though.

[chester9] 12/6/2024 14:49

From SebArgentina deposited USD 320 million as collateral to be able to appeal the PBI Coupon ruling in London. You just lost that appeal.Argentina has lost the Warrants appeal in London. Another defeat for our CV.I have been insisting that the legal strategy of the Argentine Republic does not work.It's time to take off this backpack of stones that we've been wearing for decades.

[chester9] 11/6/2024 16:42

From Zack'sInvestors in Burford Capital Limited BUR need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the Sep 20, 2024 $2.50 Call had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.What is Implied Volatility?Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It could also mean there is an event coming up soon that may cause a big rally or a huge sell-off. However, implied volatility is only one piece of the puzzle when putting together an options trading strategy.What do the Analysts Think?Clearly, options traders are pricing in a big move for Burford Capital shares, but what is the fundamental picture for the company? Currently, Burford Capital is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) in the Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry that ranks in the Top 37% of our Zacks Industry Rank. Over the last 60 days, no analysts have increased their earnings estimates for the current quarter, while one analyst has revised the estimate downward. The net effect has taken our Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter from earnings of 46 cents per share to 39 cents in that period.Given the way analysts feel about Burford Capital right now, this huge implied volatility could mean there's a trade developing. Oftentimes, options traders look for options with high levels of implied volatility to sell premium. This is a strategy many seasoned traders use because it captures decay. At expiration, the hope for these traders is that the underlying stock does not move as much as originally expected.

[375uv] 11/6/2024 09:55

Seb this morning on his daily Argentina report:

ARGENTINA DEFENDS AGAINST JUDGMENT CREDITORS’ ATTEMPT TO TURN OVER YPF SHARES

The Republic of Argentina will file its memorandum of law today in opposition to Bainbridge Fund’s motion for an injunction and turnover of the YPF shares it owns. Bainbridge, a judgment creditor, seeks to collect $95 million plus an undisclosed amount of interest in connection to a defaulted debt case filed in 2016. Bainbridge is considered a “me too” as it follows a similar injunction and turnover motion filed by YPF judgment creditors in March. These creditors, beneficiaries of a $16.1 billion award, have already completed their filings and are now waiting for Judge Loretta Preska to either rule on their merits or wait until Argentina and Bainbridge complete their submissions later this month.

Although the YPF Expropriation Case and the Bainbridge Fund Case are fundamentally different, and the latter may have less of a claim to YPF shares than YPF judgment creditors, we believe the New York magistrate will wait until the hedge fund and the Republic have presented their arguments before either ruling or calling for hearings. There is a possibility that Judge Preska might suggest all parties accept her likely offer to appoint a Special Master to mediate settlement talks. However, the Milei administration has more urgent matters at hand and may decline the judge’s offer, forcing her to rule, likely in favor of the plaintiffs. The Republic has consistently delayed resolving its international legal proceedings, a strategy that has not bode well for the sovereign.

We view President Milei’s current strategy as misguided, as he is adopting the same failed approach as his predecessors. Argentina needs to address these issues, including the GDP-Linked Warrants litigations in London and New York, more efficiently and differently, without necessarily reaching a settlement agreement in the short term. Engaging in talks with judgment creditors is far better than simply ignoring them.

[chester9] 10/6/2024 06:42

It's because Burford is so lumpyRevenues FY23 millionsQ1 380Q2 44Q3 368Q4 292FY 1086Q1 44 -88%The rest TBC so no upward pressure as yet but Burford keep putting money in to cases. It's about patience assuming you trust the thesis. It may be good for LIT when labour win as they will love exposing those dodgy covid loans.

[time_traveller] 07/6/2024 13:40

The fact that LIT has outperformed BUR by 52% in the last year speaks for itself.

[riverman77] 05/6/2024 20:32

Don't quite understand your thinking as LIT is the one that is now actually generating meaningful cashflows, something BUR hasn't done for years. It has also generated higher IRRs on its cases and seems to have costs under much better control. Also cheaper across most metrics. Lots of other reasons but this is not the LIT thread so will leave it at that.

[kirkie001] 05/6/2024 19:59

Hi riverman - I've looked at LIT probably 5 times in the last 3 or 4 years and failed to find a persuasive investment case - too much "hope value" (which I know could exactly be said for BUR too - but I knew this share better and it has a much bigger advantage in terms of scale than LIT has).

So - why should I put this year's dividend income to LIT? ;)