Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[donald pond] 22/3/2024 20:41

Sysco complex to predict because many parties are involved and RICO means any one can be held liable for the whole which makes settling tricky

[three black crows] 22/3/2024 16:56

Sysco CaseAnyone have an understanding of this case in terms of timescale with a settlement ?

[scepticalinvestor] 22/3/2024 15:11

Looking very good now

[extrader] 22/3/2024 10:31

Hi Tomtrudgian
If you didn't think Preska's 'retirement' was relevant, why refer inaccurately to it?
Similarly, why refer to the 'defects' in BUR's accounting methodology referred to by the auditors, when we're explicitly told that the defects are 'non- material'?
These FUD-like questions are then typically followed by a Brutus- like conclusion - "Yet Burford is a wonderful company"!
I am not understanding....

[chester9] 22/3/2024 08:34

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and-practice/burford-notches-win-in-quest-to-take-over-sysco-chicken-lawsuitsWith thanks to time.will.tell

[djderry] 22/3/2024 07:52

Positive ruling in the next phase of the Broiler anti-trust litigation re Sysco and Burford on Bloomberg Law.

[anon14] 21/3/2024 21:56

Tom (25980), You are making two mistakes here. One, the post-judgement interest rate of 5.42% is fixed at the time of judgement and does not change with changing interest rates. Two, unlike the pre-judgement interest rate which is simple interest, the post-judgement interest is compounded.

[375uv] 21/3/2024 18:16

The YPF appeal takes place in the building across the street of Judge Preska's court in downtown Manhattan. Judge Preska is a Federal Judge at New York's Southern District Court. All appeals go to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. She has nothing to do with this appeal. All she is handling right now is the enforcement.

In the Second Circuit, three judges will hear and decide the YPF case. During the first appeal in 2017/18, the Second Circuit ruled 3-0 in favor of plaintiffs in one issue and 2-1 in a second issue. Argentina has already filed its appeal. Petersen/Eton will do so this coming Monday and YPF will file its defense to plaintiffs' cross appeal on or about April 8.

Hope this helps.

[luweiluwei] 21/3/2024 16:48

5.25% on $6b (their part of Petersen & Eton Park) is $315M.
At full recovery BUR is 10 p/e on just the annual interest on the YPF case.

[laughton] 21/3/2024 16:07

She could hardly be expected to adjudicate on her own judgement though - could she??

[time_traveller] 21/3/2024 15:57

Someone else, or not assigned yet?

[tomtrudgian] 21/3/2024 15:49

Correction: Judge Preska is not listed to adjudicate on the appeal. Does it matter?

[tomtrudgian] 21/3/2024 15:48

Correction: Her Hon L. Preska is NOT currently listed to adjudicate on the appeal. Does this matter either way?

[tomtrudgian] 21/3/2024 14:55

The LSE board. I do not use it, and know of none other.
US district judges must retire at age 65, but they may become lifetime senior district judges. If so they can to continue to finish existing cases only, but it is largely an administrative honorary position. Judge Preska is 76. She will be able to adjudicate on the appeal.

[kirkie001] 21/3/2024 13:48

Tom (25979) - what other Board? And what makes you think Judge Preska has retired - according to post 25964 she had a hearing with YPF on Monday this week?

[tomtrudgian] 21/3/2024 12:30

I agree, TBC, that BUR are fully aware of the points I raised. I was concerned that I may have incorrectly given shareholders the impression that the post judgement interest was still 5.25%.

I said BUR is an excellent share, even if the YPF 1.4 billion US dollar value is wholly ignored. I did not say that it should be ignored, or that it has no or little value. It has very great value, but the very high YPF post judgement collection enforcement costs just announced in the results, is steadily reducing the net YPF value.

They will conceivably be ineffective in achieving realisations anyway. These costs should therefore now cease in my view. Everytime BUR negotiates it inevitably shows some of the cards it holds.

So how do BUR collect value best? By not negotiating, and focusing on non YPF litigation and realisations. Why? Because at some time Argentina will simply HAVE to settle to achieve its dollarisation aims, global trade of its extensive wine, grain, oil, lithium etc products, and IMF credibility.

[three black crows] 21/3/2024 11:00

I'm sure that Burford are aware of the points you raise. Burford, in their negotiations with a settlement, will of course cover all their expenses and losses.

[tomtrudgian] 21/3/2024 09:30

Is 5.25% post judgement interest on COMMERCIAL debts low? No, but my point below was that the BUR interest rate on its bonds is approaching double that rate. Further it is simple interest, not compound, and now reduced and reducing as US inflation falls. It is variable, calculated on the average rate of US federal treasury bills in the time since judgement.

In short, even if eventually paid in full, the post judgement interest will represent a real loss to BUR, and also there is little incentive for Argentina to pay quickly.

Confused? The US consumer post judgement rate for individual debtors is different. It is set by state law, not federal law, and is fixed. For New York it was massively reduced on 30 April 2022 from 9% to 2%.

My point below remains that the real value of the YPF judgement, after litigation and collection enforcement costs may already be lower than the fair valued asset value in the FY 2023 results. That is doubtless why BUR have confirmed that the auditors will qualify their audit report in this respect.

I remain of the view that BUR is an excellent share to hold, even if YPF is wholly ignored.

[tomtrudgian] 20/3/2024 12:13

Excellent contributions from BlueWiley and RIDER75 on the other board, and thanks. I am not too worried about the appeal even though Preska will not be involved as she has now finally retired.

I am concerned more about the sheer legal cost (and time) of collecting on YPF. These costs cannot be added to the judgement of course, and the post judgement interest is only 5.25%, if ever paid. The idea that BUR can sell the judgement for up to 33% of the judgement plus accrued interest seems, RIDER75, unlikely to me. The non YPF litigation seems however to amply justify well over the current share price

I still wonder if BUR should not consider bundling the YPF judgement into a separate listed company. That would probably be worth more long term than accepting an Argentinian Bond. Who knows anyway how long Milei will remain in office?

[extrader] 18/3/2024 22:34

Ashmore's latest thoughts

.."Argentina: CPI inflation slowed to 13.2% mom in February, 180bps lower than consensus, from 20.6% mom in January. Inflation rose to 276% in yoy terms, up from 254% in January, but better than consensus at 282%..."

In the right direction...

GLA

[djderry] 18/3/2024 21:15

Burford-only operating expenses are 3.7% of the group- wide portfolio.

[kaos3] 18/3/2024 18:38

as costs are huge in numbers /not percentage/ ... it would be interesting to see who gets that huge and sweet business.... are there any questions to be asked.... because there is where the money goes in large quantities .... and we are supposed not to ask and know ... contractual confidentiality....

KPIs of regular partners

yes - i do not trust blindly

[kaos3] 18/3/2024 18:36

big cases will have big employee performance rewards - which is ilogical to me

because a smaller case could be more difficult to solve. just numbers are larger.

it smacks of greed culture.

greed is stimulating but should be framed correctly - for the corporate culture and shareholders benefit, not employees only