Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[riverman77] 05/6/2024 16:26

I'm out now too as feels like this will go nowhere for at least another year, and I suspect the Argentina case will drag on for the rest of the decade (no doubt there will be a huge case win in the next few days and I'll have to eat my words). I much prefer LIT in this space, which has much better growth prospects and generates better returns in my opinion.

[time_traveller] 05/6/2024 16:14

That could be said of the last 5 years here!

[premium beeks] 05/6/2024 14:45

I was expecting the breakout but it seems to be struggling. Have sold mine today and will await events.Too much opportunity elsewhere to be stuck drifting.

[time_traveller] 05/6/2024 14:44

Interesting the UK market weren't much bothered (rightly IMO), and the US heavily punishes it.

[djderry] 05/6/2024 11:50

Hi reddirish,the former,I'm afraid.

[reddirish] 05/6/2024 10:12

Hi DJ, is this a rejection of the appeal on the original refusal, or are you referring to that initial (strange) finding?

[djderry] 04/6/2024 19:52

The Sysco case is getting messy.A judge in Minnesota has denied Bur and Sysco's attempt to substitute Bur as plaintiff in the pork and beef element of the price- fixing lawsuit,upholding an earlier decision,which contradicts the chicken case.
Reading the court document,I don't understand why there seems to be no reference to how we got here.The only reason Bur sought control is because Sysco,in complete contravention of the original contract,assigned parts of the claim to their suppliers which then meant their economic interest was changed/ compromised.I'm seeing no reference to this aspect of the case.
I can only hope there will be a further appeal.

[time_traveller] 04/6/2024 14:36

Couldn't resist when it touched 1116.9. Expect/hope that the Russell listing will generate some buying.

[premium beeks] 04/6/2024 13:35

Nice intraday turn.Looks to be heading Northwards from here.

[lomax99] 04/6/2024 12:40

AI is increasingly being used in sifting:



'Legalist, which runs a $1bn hedge fund focused on litigation finance, uses a proprietary AI search tool called “Truffle Sniffer” to find attractive investment targets among a sea of civil suits.

The “sniffer” scans court records for signs of favourable outcomes, such as friendly judges and litigation classes as well as pre-trial rulings that indicate particularly strong cases.

“We look for cases that have clear signs that they are winning but have not collected the money yet,” Legalist co-founder Eva Shang told the FT.'

Hopefully BUR's AI is more advanced, and it's significant proprietary data set can should set help them apart.

[futurekid] 03/6/2024 19:50

It’s lumpy .. but the directors keep buying and the party has not really started yet… patience

[chester9] 03/6/2024 13:23

It's lumpy but they are making good progress in my opinion. On 20th June there is a global shareholder call. I would expect news on that date RNSd on April 10th.

[rar100] 03/6/2024 13:20

To all posters, your brief comments to the last year end accounts would be appreciated - something like good/bad/middling/awful-considering.

And a date for the next trading statement or similar. I wonder how other cases are doing as the Argentina thing will probably outlive me! Hopefully other cases are doing better, but until they close and Bur gets paid there won't be much share price action I guess.

[extrader] 02/6/2024 13:02

Seb's latest tweet : a link to an editorial by La Nacion (Argentina's leading conservative newspaper 'of record')

hxxps://www.lanacion.com.ar/editoriales/la-seguridad-juridica-y-la-credibilidad-de-nuestra-palabra-nid02062024/

Article leads with a photo of Milei meeting Zuckerberg.

Legal certainty and the credibility of our word

In today's world, a country's main comparative advantage is its institutions, whose solidity will be the first condition that any potential investor will analyze....

In his recent visit to Spain, President Javier Milei received not only applause, but also complaints. Not for matters of his administration, but for representing the Argentine Republic, recognized as the nation most in default of its international commitments.
It is a heavy inheritance that generates caution about any new Argentinian president until the facts prove otherwise. In this case, the protagonist was the construction company Abertis, which has just filed a claim before the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) for US$ 300 million related to the access highways to the city of Buenos Aires....

Article continues in this vein, reminding readers of Argentina's apalling default record, both large (mentions Seb's compiled data) and small.

And concludes

.."When there is a democratic base that sustains a structure of stable rules, independent justice and fiscal balance, capital and investments flow. In Argentina, when there is legal certainty based on solid collective consensus, there will be employment and investments. This is what is still missing if we are to succeed as a country."

Hearts and minds.

GLA

[375uv] 31/5/2024 14:06

Here is Seb’s presentation.

[bradvert] 30/5/2024 09:36

Good summary 1aconic, as you say the salient bit was at the end when he contrasted the ease of a solution from a technical versus political perspective. There was also a long and involved analysis at the start going through the pre 2012 chronology; how the YPF shares had ended up at Peterson and Eton, and who might have benefited along the way. That might yet affect the politics of a solution...A slide was used showing how much each party would benefit if there was a $10b settlement. I think that figure was used to make the maths easier.It was well attended, just under 100 people for most of the session.As mentioned elsewhere, the meeting will be published somewhere today. If it's on youtube, you can auto generate English subtitles easily.  

[1aconic] 30/5/2024 09:00

There wasn't much new ground covered. A good factual summary that wouldn't be new to the vast majority on here. The latter stage gave a bit more colour to his personal opinions/insights. In summary:

He stressed that ARG has to negotiate now - waiting passively for the appeal ruling will just increase the amount they have to pay and diminish their negotiating position.

He thinks economically there is no issue whatsoever paying the judgement. He was quite unequivocal about that - a bond issue and done.

He said the issue is quite simply political - he thinks Milei wants to negotiate and get a resolution. However, any settlement would have to be approved in congress and that's a big hurdle to overcome as things stand.

[jockthescot75] 30/5/2024 06:58

Thanks Extrader.

[extrader] 30/5/2024 00:42

I saw the first hour of the presentation.
A great summary of the case, covering some nuanced legal aspects of a very complex situation.

The over-riding message - to the legal community it addressed, and perhaps a wider audience - was 'It's good to talk'..

Well done, Seb!
IMO.

[375uv] 30/5/2024 00:05

I will send the group a link to his presentation (in Spanish) on Thursday.

[jockthescot75] 29/5/2024 21:17

If anyone is viewing Seb’s presentation that’s on this evening about YPF, it would be great to get a brief summary on his views. He seems so well connected.

Thanks!

[stentorian] 29/5/2024 16:12

"Furthermore, the vice-president also took several flights in state aircraft using Río Gallegos as a stopover, as well as flying aboard on planes belonging to state energy firm YPF, which took refuge in company anonymity not to reveal further information when consulted by NA."

[stentorian] 29/5/2024 15:36

"Argentinian state-owned oil & gas outfit Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales, also known as YPF, is selling two business jets, one Learjet 60XR and one Embraer Praetor 500, on the orders of the country's president, Javier Milei.

According to local reports, the cash-strapped country’s new administration believes the two jets were “used almost exclusively by privileged politicians” such as former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and views them as an unnecessary expense. Fernández de Kirchner's administration left an outstanding debt of over USD200,000 with YPF for the use of these planes, digital newspaper Todo Noticias (TN) reported.

However, the sale of these planes, which was first announced in December 2023 and for which the Argentinian government sought to obtain USD20-30 million, has yet to take place.

According to Flightradar24 ADS-B data, the Learjet 60XR, LV-BTA (msn 60-353), was last used on March 19, 2024, flying from Rosario Islas Malvinas to Buenos Aires Jorge Newbery, while the Praetor 500, LV-KGJ (msn 55010043), flew on April 8 on the same route.

ch-aviation has reached out to YPF for comment.

A source told TN that YPF must hire a third-party entity to price the aircraft, “and once all that documentation is ready, with the final consent of the board of directors, these assets will put be up for sale through a public tender.” No tender with these characteristics was found by ch-aviation on the country’s official tender website."

EMBRAER PRAETOR 500
LEARJET (BOMBARDIER) LEARJET
BUENOS AIRES

[rar100] 28/5/2024 21:16

As my girlfriend says, shares go up and down. A profound lass she is.

With BUR & Argentina, She says It's a never ending soap opera with lots of boring bits and not much action (shares going North she means)

Warpaint - W7L is exciting to her as it's make up and also the shares are rocketing North, probably the best run co. on AIM, expanding world wide and no debt at all.

Damn glad I've got those, BUR used to have a chart like theirs a few years ago....I tell her, yes she says but that's ancient history - boring. Let me know when they go North.

Got to laugh....