Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[mighunter] 22/4/2024 19:29

From Bloomberg: "Burford had sought to keep its filings secret, saying that news of its collection effort could impede efforts to resolve the issue."

[extrader] 22/4/2024 19:04

Ashmore's latest, for additional macro-economic context :

Argentina: President Javier Milei requested Argentina join NATO as a global partner. It is unclear if that would have any relevant implications beyond bringing Argentina closer to the US. Congress started debating a new fiscal reform bill that lowers the income tax threshold, establishes a tax amnesty that creates a scheme to regularise undeclared assets and cuts personal asset tax, amongst other changes.

In the meantime, Finance Minister Luis Caputo pledged to keep achieving a budget surplus, which kept Argentinian bonds well supported again last week. The trade balance was USD 2.1bn in March, above estimates of USD 1.2bn and USD 1.4bn prior. Exports rose to USD 6.4bn from USD 5.5bn. Imports rose to USD 4.3bn from USD 4.1bn.

'Steady as she goes...'
GLA

[extrader] 22/4/2024 18:39

I'd refer you back to the recent YPF results presentation and the rationale behind its 4 x 4 programme - the argument is that there's a roadmap for 4x growth in MCap over the next 4 years...

Key point : because of historic political mismanagement (and 'misalignment' of incentives), the planned disposal of 60 to 80% of its oil assets makes a 1 or 2% difference to their historic contribution to bottom line.

The old 80/20 rule in (graphic) action...

AIUI

[nigelpm] 22/4/2024 18:09

Obviously would go up without the interference of the Argentinian state.

[three black crows] 22/4/2024 17:59

YPF share price.You wouldn't have thought the share price would be heading north on the current news. Perhaps I'm missing something. It's up over 6% as I type.

[extrader] 22/4/2024 17:19

Seb's latest :

YPF judgment creditors formally ask Judge Preska to compel Argentina to turnover all shares expropriated in 2012. The Republic will file its opposition motion on May 16 and the judge will not decide until the second week of June.

Accompanying filing extract suggests it's a straightforward issue....

Let's see !

[this tea tastes of chicken] 22/4/2024 07:25

Why did BUR want this to be under seal ?

[extrader] 22/4/2024 01:11

With this follow-on exchange :

Q :Sebastian, query: Is there no recursive incidence in the Court of Appeals? Isn't the question about the company's shares subordinated to the outcome of the appeal? Gcias


A: Judge Preska's ruling is a Final Judgment that can be appealed (as Argentina has done), but this ruling is also automatically enforceable unless Argentina deposits a guarantee to avoid enforcement. Argentina chose not to deposit this guarantee, which is why embargoes or similar ones began.

If the Court of Appeals rules in favor of La República and the beneficiaries of the ruling managed to get hold of some assets as collection of the judgment, then enforcement is suspended until the Supreme Court gives its opinion (if it reaches that instance).

The beneficiaries of the judgment will not have to return the seized assets(s) to Argentina until the Court issues its ruling.

In my opinion, it is a matter of negotiation. Not of seizure.

Popcorn at the ready.

[extrader] 22/4/2024 01:03

Sebastian MarilSebastian Maril
• 3rd+• 3rd+
Regional Director, US & Latin AmericaRegional Director, US & Latin America
3h • 3h •

Follow

YPF JUDGMENT CREDITORS ASK NEW YORK JUDGE TO COMPEL ARGENTINA TO TRANSFER OWNERSHIP OF THE OIL AND GAS COMPANY

YPF judgment creditors have petitioned Judge Loretta Preska of New York’s Southern District Court to authorize the transfer of ownership of all YPF shares expropriated by the Republic in 2012, including those allocated for the provinces. Originally filed on April 1, this request was kept under seal by the creditors, rendering it inaccessible to the public. Currently, Argentina holds a 51% stake in the oil and gas company, with 25% of this ownership designated for the oil-producing provinces. Recently, the Republic voiced opposition to the creditors' actions and urged Judge Preska to unseal the transfer of ownership motion. The New York judge sided with Argentina and YPF, who made a similar request.

Nevertheless, next month, Argentina intends to contest the creditors' motion to transfer ownership of YPF shares owned by the government. According to Title III, Chapter I, Article 10 of the YPF Expropriation Law, any transfer of the expropriated shares requires the approval of two-thirds of Congress. While it's improbable that the Republic will transfer ownership of the shares to the creditors, Wall Street is poised to play an active role in resolving this litigation, given that this development involves a NYSE-listed company and a sovereign nation with strong ties to the US, which may soon face contempt charges from a US court if it doesn’t comply with a likely turnover order.

In November, Judge Preska noted that shares owned by the Federal government, excluding those pledged to the provinces, could serve as collateral to prevent embargoes during the appeal. Since Argentina never pledged its shares, judgment creditors obtained clearance to enforce the 2023 judgment.

Plaintiffs will respond to the Republic's opposition to the transfer of ownership by June 1, after which Judge Preska will promptly rule on the motions....

'Things are getting serious....'
GLA and ATB

[jockthescot75] 19/4/2024 19:26

Exactly as I suggested at 26065.
Super interesting.

[somerset lad] 19/4/2024 19:08

Seb has posted.

I don't think BUR really wants to take delivery of the expropriated YPF shares. Owning shares in a company in a jurisdiction whose legislature is potentially very hostile to you is a recipe for value destruction. But the application does, very neatly, put ARG's feet to the fire.

I suspect BUR was quite happy with Judge Preska's order to publish. If BUR were unhappy they would presumably have asked the Judge to delay the publication date to give them time to consider and pursue a possible appeal. BUR may well have felt that they needed to assert confidentiality for consistency with other applications they may make in future, where they really do want to keep the detail under wraps (to avoid tipping off e.g. other creditors who might want to go after the same assets).

[jockthescot75] 19/4/2024 18:04

Sounds like we’re going to see what this content in the document is according to Seb.

[375uv] 19/4/2024 14:36

Interesting piece by Seb about YPF, Argentina and Burford.

WALL STREET SHOULD START ASKING ARGENTINA UNCOMFORTABLE QUESTIONS

hxxps://www.linkedin.com/posts/sebastianmaril_wall-street-should-start-asking-argentina-activity-7187039522562400256-gsOJ?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

[rar100] 19/4/2024 08:29

Thanks all for your replies, I bought into BUR a few years ago - when it was vaunted to be a 'new asset class' and also almost a Robin Hood figure - giving 'poorer' people access to legal help/finance, where there was virtually none before.

It was a disrupter, I did pretty well the shares kept going north until MUDDY WATERS, and that was game over in one day, I sold. Since then it's been a roller coaster, it never has got it's reputation back from the attack.

The Argentina saga seems endless, so much potential but........

Over one year the share price has done very well but a shame it went so low in the first place, a traders dream perhaps (if one has the time/expertise in it's niche landscape)

GLA again and thanks

[galatea99] 18/4/2024 19:08

has this been posted previously, a research note from Focus Capital Managemwnt?

[syoun2] 17/4/2024 17:38

Hope there selling all the holdings & price being held back for a bit but great opportunity to buy. Unfortunately I’m already fully loaded

[extrader] 17/4/2024 15:20

Seb's latest

.."In February, the IMF warned Argentina that it needs to address legal issues related to recent court rulings if it wants to regain access to international credit..."

Extracts (which I can't copy) follow...and refer specifically to the YPF and GDP bond-linked cases..

GLA

[futurekid] 16/4/2024 20:41

rAr100 - over the last 12 months depending on when you bought it’s significantly up. Going forward the whole market does not yet have confidence in the mid term spreadsheet forecasts but sooner or later the penny:cent will drop!

[syoun2] 16/4/2024 20:37

That’s in reply to rar100

[syoun2] 16/4/2024 20:34

That’s in reply to rar100

[syoun2] 16/4/2024 20:28

In my view you are not looking at things correctly. The nature of Burford will encourage volatility. Almost everything is secret or unknown. Markets/traders love volatility it’s how you make money

[lomax99] 16/4/2024 18:32

Well in fractionally over a year it is up from a low of c 550p, so I am not really sure what you were expecting.

[rar100] 16/4/2024 18:19

I'm not the greatest at reading annual reports but can usually get a fairly good idea of how things are, but Burford's are a total mystery not being a high end lawyer/accountant).

The uptick in earnings difference '22 to '23 looked staggeringly good but as the share price didn't seem to back this up, I guess I was missing a lot of detail that's beyond my understanding and time constraints to wade through.

Mithaq doesn't help things of course.

So my questions are how do you rate 2023's results and if they are as good as the top lines suggest (and what Burford have to say about how well they are doing) why isn't the share price flying north. (I guess it's Argentina - which is just a can of worms to me).

I will appreciate any views

GLA