Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[extrader] 28/5/2024 17:11

Also from Seb

Burford
@BurfordCapital
·
41m
Burford Capital is expected to join the broad-market Russell 3000® and small-cap Russell 2000® Indexes.

Click to read the release.

hxxps://burfordcapital.com/insights-news-events/news-press-releases/burford-capital-expected-to-join-russell-3000-and-2000-indexes/?utm_source=sm&utm_medium=twitter_&utm_content=

#legalfinance #litigationfunding #BurfordCapital

I'm somewhat surprised that BUR doesn't appear to have released this news to its UK-based shareholders ...

GLA

[extrader] 28/5/2024 17:09

Newsflow from Seb :

(1) Tuesday, 12:00 pm: Hearing in Judge Preska's court to present arguments for and against forcing the country to present information on whether certain entities administered by the State are the Alter Ego of the Republic. Argentina.
- These companies include but are not limited to: YPF, Aerolíneas, BCRA, ARSAT, BNA, etc.
- This hearing is related to the case for the expropriation of YPF.

(2) Seb will be leading a zoom call on Weds, @6pm Arg time, 10pm UK time..(?some confusion in timing below?), possibly to discuss the above...

An important stage begins for the Argentine Republic and the challenges offered by the trial for the expropriation of YPF.

This Wednesday, May 29 at 6:00 p.m. (ART) , I will be giving a virtual conference where I will talk about the history behind the trial, the interpretation of Argentine laws by foreign courts and what can happen now that the country has appealed Judge Loretta Preska's ruling.

The conference will be in Spanish and was organized by
@Abogadosdelf and the Argentine Lawyers Association (New York).

For those who wish to participate, I share the Zoom data.

Topic: ACADEMIC MEETING COMMISSION OF COLLECTIVE LAW
Time: May 29, 2024 06:00 pm GMT+08:00

Login Zoom Meeting
hxxps://us02web.zoom.us/j/9447524535?pwd=SEg5eEFXTkdCUnVDM2ZiTFNVU3pGZz09&omn=83961623067

Meeting ID: 944 752 4535
Access code: justicia

E and OE,
GLA and ATB

[planit2] 28/5/2024 07:55

redirish, if the negotiation leads to a bond then BUR will sell it on.

[three black crows] 28/5/2024 00:32

Just in from Seb Maril.? Tuesday, 12:00 pm: Hearing in Judge Preska's court to present arguments for and against forcing the country to present information on whether certain entities administered by the State are the Alter Ego of the Republic. Argentina.- These companies include but are not limited to: YPF, Aerolíneas, BCRA, ARSAT, BNA, etc.- This hearing is related to the case for the expropriation of YPF.

[three black crows] 25/5/2024 17:43

How did you calculate that the share price should be £30 when "the boat comes in". ?Can we see some maths.

[reddirish] 25/5/2024 17:42

I'm with you. Sadly the markets aren't with either of us. The dominant narrative seems to be that Argentina is broke, and that any settlement will be at a fraction of the value. I disagree: the hint that there will be an annual bond-like coupon paid through a 'Kirchner tax' is where I expect negotiations to go, and that will leave the value of the award remaining as an asset, while income - probably at the level of the post settlement interest- is received. In time, the capital value will be paid as well. So rather than a fraction, I'd be expecting a 'more than' outcome. But until some sort of payment schedule is agreed, the Argentina case value will not be valued by the market, and the share price will go nowhere (unless another whale breaks the surface!)

[tnt99] 25/5/2024 17:30

True value when the boats come in is over 30 pounds with an increased dividend It should be currently half that!!!!15 pounds after all was at 20 pounds before they won this massive case against Argentina

[lazg] 25/5/2024 01:56

hxxps://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/video/burford-capital-limited-bur-christopher-p-bogart-ceo

[reddirish] 23/5/2024 17:45

I agree that it is a crazy low price, but think it will fall further to around £10 in the absence of any positive news. Likely bounce back when the Second Court finds for the plaintiffs in the appeal, and even further of there's is anything positive in the YPF attachment request/ appeal. In the meantime we have to be patient. It could be several years yet for this to reflect even half it's fair value, and that also makes it vulnerable to down drift.

[tnt99] 23/5/2024 16:53

Crazy low price now should be over 15 pounds by now I'm buying more

[extrader] 22/5/2024 21:06

Hat tip to Mr Marroc for this

Long piece in the Argentine media about Burford’s hiring of a negotiator for the YPF case.

hxxps://www.infobae.com/economia/2024/05/22/juicio-por-ypf-burford-quiere-cobrar-los-usd-16000-millones-y-contrato-a-un-tiburon-de-wall-street-argentino-para-negociar-con-el-estado/

My reply :

Thanks for this, Mr M.

.."The Argentine wolf of Wall Street hired by Burford to lobby on its behalf -as mentioned as a possibility by Cronista last week- is Gerardo "Gerry" Mato, a former banker who became Chairman of Global Banking at HSBC. He has more than 25 years of experience in global financial markets, based in the US, and before HSBC he worked for Merrill Lynch; he was also a member of the Atlantic Council, the US Chambers of Commerce and the Council of the Americas. He is now CEO of the consulting firm BluePearl Capital, where he is a partner of two other former Argentine bankers. All of them will be in Buenos Aires during the first days of June: they have a full agenda at all levels..."

Upsum : 'no hay plata' - there's no money - but Milei has indicated a 'willingness' to settle (the first President to do so) and that's what these folk may be counting on....and maybe with a so-far un-named ally of Milei, not in Govt , who might have negotiating authority.

GLA

[extrader] 21/5/2024 21:29

Seb's latest :

.."Argentine lawyers say that payment of the sovereign debt is complicated by a ruling of USD 1.5 billion corresponding to the PBI Coupon? I don't even want to think about what we are going to do when they find out that we have another ruling for USD 16,000 million for the YPF issue.

I reiterate, let's bring together all the beneficiaries of these trials in an office and close a macro agreement.

It is time to take off this backpack of stones that we carry for having a peculiar interpretation of the laws and signed contracts..."

GLA

[extrader] 21/5/2024 15:32

I wonder whether/how this will complicate BUR's business going forward, most topically re Argentina?

The sponsors of the bill have -or should declare, IMO - a specific interest in helping Puerto Rico.

hxxps://www.restructuring-globalview.com/2024/04/new-yorks-renewed-efforts-to-pass-sovereign-debt-legislation-us/

New York’s Renewed Efforts to Pass Sovereign Debt Legislation (US)
By Jeffrey N. Rothleder and Tara Peramatukorn on April 17, 2024
POSTED IN CROSS BORDER, US

.."As discussed in our prior blog entitled “New York’s Sovereign Debt Restructuring Proposals,”[1] three bills were introduced in the New York state legislature to overhaul the way sovereign debt restructurings are handled in New York. Those bills sought to implement a comprehensive mechanism for restructuring sovereign debt, limit recovery on certain sovereign debt claims, and amend the champerty defense. None of the bills advanced to a full vote during the 2023 legislative session and, therefore, failed.

Earlier this month, however, New York lawmakers led by Senator Gustavo Rivera introduced the Sovereign Debt Stability Act (the “Bill”).[2] The legislators seek, pursuant to the Bill, to reform New York law governing sovereign debt by merging two previous bills. Specifically, the Bill seeks to merge the proposal to implement a comprehensive mechanism for restructuring sovereign debt and the proposal to limit recovery on certain sovereign debt claims. As a reminder, those proposals would: (i) impose a voting mechanism on sovereign debt restructurings governed by New York law, which include submission of a restructuring plan to all creditors for a vote and approval by at least two-thirds of the claims by amount and over half by number (a vote similar to that required for approval of a plan under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code); (ii) provide for the appointment of an “independent monitor” to facilitate and encourage a prompt and fair agreement; and (iii) limit recovery on claims against sovereigns participating in certain international debt relief initiatives.

Supporters believe that the Bill in its current form has the greatest chance of passing into law.[3] The Bill, however, still suffers from the same constitutional issues that we discussed in our prior post, namely, that the proposed comprehensive mechanism New York seeks to impose may already be preempted by the U.S. Bankruptcy Code and the Bill’s retroactive application may violate the Contracts Clause in the U.S. Constitution. Indeed, any state law designed to establish a framework for restructuring sovereign debt likely would run afoul of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code and be preempted. Further, such a law could, once again, be viewed as an improper restriction on the ability of parties to freely contract without a legitimate public purpose.

Additionally, critics are concerned that hasty legislative changes without multilateral consultation will have further unintended consequences. On March 13, 2024, a group of interested organizations penned a letter strongly opposing the Bill, arguing that the Bill attempts to solve problems that have largely been dealt with by collective action clauses.[4] The opposition cites the fact that the average duration of a sovereign debt restructuring has been cut from 3.5 years to 1.2 years since the introduction of collective action clauses. They argue that the Bill will result in increased financing costs due to legal uncertainties associated with a new and lightly-defined legal process for dealing with sovereign debt. This will hurt the countries that the Bill seeks to help by adding a substantial risk premium to their cost of borrowing.

Another criticism is that the legislation will dent New York’s hard-earned history and reputation as a leading financial center known for its transparent and neutral enforcement of financial contracts and trusts.[5] Parties opposing the Bill argue that it will likely encourage forum shopping as investors, faced with increased risk and uncertainty, look to other jurisdictions to issue debt. In fact, this already occurred late last year when the indenture for the exchanged bond in Suriname’s restructuring was modified to include language that lowered the voting threshold from a supermajority to a simple majority of holders to change the governing law of the bonds from New York to another jurisdiction.[6] This modification was the direct result of concern over the three sovereign debt restructuring bills proposed by New York last year.

The Bill has recently been referred to the New York Senate’s Banks Committee. It remains to be seen whether New York lawmakers will finally be successful in enacting this legislation. Senator Rivera is certainly set on it, stating that it will be one of his top priorities for the rest of the year.[7]

While the Senator may be intent on seeing to the passage of the Bill, it is far from certain that even if passed, the Bill will become an enforceable law anytime soon given the likely constitutional challenges that await. But, given New York’s prominent role in sovereign debt, the issues raised by the Bill and the attempts by New York to further regulate and control the restructuring process will continue to be issues that must be addressed by sovereigns and debt holders alike. "

Something to ask at the AGM, perhaps - if not before.

ATB

[extrader] 20/5/2024 19:55

Ashmore latest:

.."Argentina: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) have approved the eighth review of Argentina's USD 44bn loan agreement, paving the way for c. USD 800m in loans for the country. President Javier Milei said the nation is on the brink of lifting foreign exchange controls and emphasised the government's eagerness to do so swiftly..."

GLA

[extrader] 20/5/2024 18:55

New kid(s) on the block?

Interesting article in today's FT, behind paywall (google is your friend). BUR isn't mentioned (its customers are corporates) but the private capital firms (that currently aggregate into a class action) may be potential competitors at some point.

'Johnson & Johnson settlement shows the new stakes in litigation finance'

Article reports on J and J's talc litigation and a $ 14 Bn settlement....and Johnson's unhappiness that the claimants were part-financed by Fortress Litigation Assets, an arm of Fortress Investment Group, now owned by Abu Dhabi's SWF Mubadala.

J and J complain that the financial investors frustrate -cough- 'good faith' attempts at settlement, by holding out for higher ie more profitable returns....

.."According to Fortress’s website, it has cumulatively funded $6.8bn in litigation finance. Industry participants say virtually every major private capital firm is involved in funding lawsuits, though often quietly and through affiliates.

Centerbridge and Apollo both funded lawsuits of victims of PG&E while also being financial creditors and shareholders of the California utility that paid victims billions over its role in devastating wildfires..."

GLA

[scubadiverr] 18/5/2024 11:35

Posted by reputable poster MrMarroc on LSE. "Burford has hired former Argentine Wall Street bankers to lead the efforts to negotiate a settlement with the government, the local media reported late on Friday. This does not mean that Milei will open the door soon. Is just a first step towards an agreement. Argentina needs to name its negotiator.The wheels are moving."

[dagoberia] 17/5/2024 14:33

Thanks a lot for the info 375UV

[dagoberia] 17/5/2024 11:37

May i ask when is the next expected ruling scheduled approximately? that is the request from BUR to be handed YPF class D shares held by the Arg gov.. thanks in advance

[melloteam] 14/5/2024 16:03

Burford to exhibit at Mello2024 on Wednesday 22nd May 2024

Mello Events are hosting their annual flagship in-person investor event, Mello2024, on Wednesday 22nd and Thursday 23rd May 2024, 9am-6pm at the Clayton Hotel & Conference Centre in Chiswick, London. The event will feature over 40 companies and keynote speakers such as Lord Lee; Christopher Mills; Georgina Brittain; Gervais Williams; Ed Croft; and many more!
If you have never attended an in-person Mello event before, you can get your ticket for £30 (normally £99) with code NEW2MELLO24
Get 50% off your ticket with code MMTADVFN50

For more info:

[premium beeks] 14/5/2024 14:43

Bought at 11.27 this morning. Seems right on the 12 month trend line.

[maddox] 13/5/2024 15:55

Hi Kirkie,

BUR are New York listed now so the rules governing the NYSE firms are dictating. In fairness, Chris Bogart states that quarterly reporting doesn't fit with BUR's business model and that they manage the business on a cash basis not on the P&L figs.

I'm not a fan of the new accounting regimen, etc., either. I think that there is probably some more latitude in terms of presentation than they are seeking to utilise - but it's still early days and they are the trail blazer for a NY listed Lit Fin firm.

[chester9] 13/5/2024 15:48

It will bounce back for Q2 but that's 3 months away, in meantime it's given the traders a foot in the door. Dividend too small to have any real impact.

[kirkie001] 13/5/2024 15:18

....and THIS is why it's completely stupid for BUR to do quarterly updates.....

It's not the kind of share where quarterly updates are helpful. If there's material news, RNS it. If not; results every 6 months should be the norm. Quarterly is "spurious frequency and accuracy".

And I still don't understand why results don't come out at 7am UK time. Other dual-listed shares do it then.... they are an outlier in publishing results when the UK market is open and before the US market opens.