Braemar Share Discussion Threads

[eezymunny] 23/5/2024 07:17

Lots of dilution from share options (diluted EPS only 29.96, ignoring exceptionals).

[eezymunny] 23/5/2024 07:13

The order book not so interesting when you read "forward order book of $83m at the end of February 2024 ($38m of which is for the financial year ending February 2025).

[masurenguy] 23/5/2024 07:07

Positive results as previously indicated in their trading update. The 36% increase in their Risk Advisory division was particularly impressive. Their future prospects look very good especially with the forward order book of $83m

[qs99] 23/5/2024 06:51

EV/EBITDA looks wrong IMO, too low, net cash, decent yield, forward order book way ahead of last year, corporate troubles behind it....time to look forward, glad I topped up....DYOR

[rivaldo] 23/5/2024 06:26

In line results as already flagged show 36.62p EPS - a historic P/E of 8.3 - and a very positive outlook, with order books up a whopping 47% at $82.6m.

Operating profit would have been higher at £20.6m compared to £20.1m, if it hadn't been for acquisition-related costs and an unfavourable foreign exchange swing totalling £4.1m.

The outlook is rather promising:

"The overall market outlook remains positive. Geo-political and natural events, as well as environmental considerations are leading to longer voyage times, and global seaborne trade continues to grow, while the total fleet size remains at similar levels.

We started FY25 with a strong forward order book at $82.6m, and will continue to invest in our people, offices, and technology, whilst taking advantage of a fragmented shipbroking market to hire and make acquisitions. I look forward to another strong performance by the Group."

[rivaldo] 23/5/2024 05:39

Nice:



"Braemar brokers first-ever container freight futures deal on SGX in ‘volatile’ market

Freight forward agreements for containers have never been done before on the Singapore Exchange
22 May 2024

A landmark futures deal is paving the way to make freight-rate risk more manageable in boxship markets, following the closing of the first-ever container derivatives trade on the Singapore Exchange on Tuesday.

The deal was brokered by Braemar Securities, the freight forward agreements (FFA) desk of Braemar Shipping Services group, and was cleared by the Singapore Exchange (SGX).

An unnamed US investment bank sold its June contract for the China/East Asia to northern Europe route at $5,650 per feu, one of the benchmark routes that make up the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) for container freight.

etc"

[rivaldo] 21/5/2024 21:45

I suspect the £79,646 trade at 303p reported late was a nice-sized buy which unlocked the door for today's rise.

New recent highs chart-wise now.

With the double whammy of known good results coming on Thursday, combined with the likely promotion to the FTSE Small Cap to be confirmed on June 5th, hopefully these gains will be extended by some way in the next few weeks.

[masurenguy] 21/5/2024 15:13

Looks like the Risk feature, mentioned by Riv above, has stimulated some long overdue and welcome interest here. Todays 9% rise is not based on any great trading volume - circa 100,000 shares, around double the average daily figure - but upon a significant number of small retail trades (average size just under 2000 shares) throughout the day. Probably see a little bit of profit taking before the close.

[dicktrade] 21/5/2024 14:57

What on earth is happening here, only a very small holding for me but ive watched it go vertical from mid morning on big volume, surely the 23/5 FY24 numbers must have been leaked !!!!

[rivaldo] 20/5/2024 07:42

This reads well - there's more, but it's subscription-only:



"Newcomer of the year: Braemar Securities Energy Risk Awards 2024:
By Stella Farrington 17 May 2024

Ship-broker’s natural gas desk hits the ground running with new products

Energy Risk’s 2024 Newcomer of the year, Braemar Securities, has set out to disrupt the natural gas market, offering new products and a mainly voice-brokered service to a growing client base of corporates, financials and shipping companies. The interdealer broker for commodity derivatives launched its natural gas and carbon-broking desk in October 2022. Since its first Dutch TTF natural gas trade in February 2023, the firm has onboarded clients including utilities, trading houses, investment"

[welsheagle] 17/5/2024 19:42

Bought some more today ahead of results on Thursday - any predictions for the dividend

[dan_the_epic] 17/5/2024 19:01

The Braemar CEO made £4.1m last year

That is MORE than FTSE100 tech stock Sage's CEO!

[dan_the_epic] 17/5/2024 18:56

Acquisition expenses should not be excluded IMO

Such a huge gap between statutory EPS and adjusted EPS tells you all you need to know.

This is not a Clarkson.

[rivaldo] 17/5/2024 10:16

Good to see the bid price up to 290p now, with sales being readily absorbed at a small premium to the offer price.

Overall BMS remains extremely cheap imho - a break above 300p could see a big jump as the markets digest the opportunity.

[dan_the_epic] 16/5/2024 19:48

hpcg but in this case it is definitely NOT a conventional acquisition related expenditure item. Instead it looks like trying to exclude genuine employee costs in a fudged 'adjustment'. This was an acquisition made in December 2022 that will still have acquisition related costs in the second half they are just going to be reporting soon. In fact it is completely the opposite of what it sounds like you think it is - it is not a one time item at all


Acquisition-related items

Following the acquisition of Southport Maritime Inc. in December 2022, due to the requirement for ongoing employee service, the upfront cash payment of £6.0 million and IFRS 2 charge related to share awards made to the sellers and existing employees of Southport are treated as a post-combination remuneration expense. The total expense related to amounts linked to ongoing employee service in connection with the acquisition of Southport was £1.8 million (2022: £nil) in the six months to August 2023. The period of required employee service is three years from the acquisition date.

[mfhmfh] 16/5/2024 13:07

'underlying operating profit of not less than £18m...' with market cap of around £90m.

Is a market cap of £180m (10 x profit) reasonable?

[hpcg] 16/5/2024 12:46

Dan - that is a conventional adjustment and one of the few I personally endorse unless the company is a serial acquirer and it is part of the business model. It doesn't happen every year and so truly can be removed from underlying performance. You can choose to ignore it and just use the statutory number when making your own investment decisions.

[dan_the_epic] 16/5/2024 12:31

@ Rivaldo any clues

Can anyone understand their acquisition related expenditure and why that should be an adjusted item? It's very material but to me looks like a complete fudge adjustment

[tomps2] 16/5/2024 11:38

Braemar (BMS) Full Year results webinar

Tuesday, 28 May, 1:00pm

Braemar CEO, James Gundy, CFO, Grant Foley and COO, Tris Simmonds will present the Group’s results for full year 2024, followed by a Q&A session.

Register here: bit.ly/BMS_FY24_webinar

[rivaldo] 16/5/2024 10:57

The impending promotion to the Small Cap Index, with the review on the 29th May, should cause some decent tracker fund/institutional buying for a start.

And of course we know the results on 23rd May (next Thursday) will show BMS's rating to be extremely cheap given at least 38p historic EPS, plus a 13p dividend and a net cash position.

And in particular the substantial order book - up 47% on last year - should back up a positive outlook.

[mattybuoy] 16/5/2024 10:24

Thanks. Totally agree with everything they say.

The trading volume here is miniscule though, what needs to happen for that to change?

[rivaldo] 16/5/2024 07:40

Newly tipped on Master Investor, primarily referring to the Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea pushing up shipping rates:



Extracts:

"However, the ongoing stress created in re-routing shipping around the Cape has seen costs increasing for both the shipping companies and their customers.

That is when companies like Clarkson (LON:CKN) and Braemar (LON:BMS) become extremely important advisors and agents.

Volatility and uncertainty in shipping markets is usually positive for shipbrokers.

Clarkson stated at its AGM on Thursday of last week that it had made a positive start to the year, helping its clients to navigate the ongoing complexities and disruptions to global trade, by providing the expertise, data and insights to enable them to make the right decisions for their organisations.

For both groups their Forward Order Books must have seen some good uplift, the benefit from which will become evident in the second half of this year.

Rapidly rising freight rates suggest that fears of delayed goods have kicked off the peak season early this year.

Shippers fear major delays on goods due to new supply chain disruptions.

This has jump-started the peak season and sent spot rates soaring.

Elsewhere there are reports that the market for buying and selling second-hand dry bulk carriers is in the top 20% of the price development since 2000, while for tankers it is in the top 10%.

The past six months have seen significant price increases for used dry cargo ships and tankers.

However, I now really suggest that investors should keep their eyes on the shares of my favourite shipping services group."

"In the last few months, a couple of the group’s competitors have been acquiring stakes in the company – the Peter Dohle Group and Lightship Chartering, both declaring just over 3.0% holdings in the BMS equity.

The group should be announcing its 2024 results, which are not expected to see any surprises, before the end of this month.

At this stage expectations for the current year to end February 2025, are for £150.2m of revenues and £15.8m pre-tax profits, generating nearly 47p per share in earnings and easily covering an estimated 14.0p in dividend.

Last night the shares closed at 295p at which level they are trading on a miniscule 6.3 times prospective price-to-earnings ratio, while yielding a very healthy 4.7%.

I believe that they will soon be trading at levels far higher than on 8th January and I have confidence in my aim of early-May at 350p."

[dan_the_epic] 16/5/2024 06:58

Can anyone understand their acquisition related expenditure and why that should be an adjusted item? It's very material but to me looks like a complete fudge adjustment

[masurenguy] 16/5/2024 06:27

Publication of FY24 Results

The Group will announce its audited final results for the year ended 29 February 2024 on Thursday, 23 May 2024 and publish its 2024 Annual Report and Accounts shortly thereafter. Previous FY24 guidance remains unchanged, with revenue of not less than £150m (FY23: £153m) and underlying operating profit of not less than £18m, in line with market expectations (1).

(1) Company compiled consensus as at the date of this announcement: FY24 revenue of £150.4m and FY24 underlying operating profit (before acquisition-related expenditure) of £18m.