Braemar Share Discussion Threads

[greybroath] 24/10/2023 09:20

Nearly another month has passed with no news...

Doesn't bode well.

[undermanager1] 05/10/2023 05:13

The 20 day extension to relisting passed a week ago. There has been silence since then and the vague promise of relisting in October. With no end in sight, it is looking now like investigations are continuing, there is much more to this than meets the eye and any statement is just hot air.

[hpcg] 01/10/2023 13:56

Also arguing about what might happen to the share price when it is re-listed later this month is pointless. I won't make a decision until I've seen the RNS though I can boil it down to these:

1) buy a dip
2) sell a spike
3) sell at any price
4) buy at any price
5) hold
6) buy around prior closing price on a muted opening
7) sell around prior closing price on a muted opening

Of these I suspect 3 and 4 are unlikely, based on the trading statement and what we can guess about the root cause. Even if it were bribery the company would self report and it would be unlikely there would be any consequential punishment. Most likely is 5, the vast majority of my position was built at the price immediately pre-suspension, I don't especially see the need to enlarge it at this exact time. Everyone else will have their own check sheet and price will initially be driven by those especially keen on selling or buying.

[catabrit] 01/10/2023 09:04

That is one way to put it Clarkey. The other way is that those just have a less bearish interpretation of the facts presented to date. I do not think anyone attacked Under and said he was mad! We just gave an alternative narrative and I think that’s entirely fair and reasonable.

[edmundshaw] 01/10/2023 08:25

Dr. B. I think that is quite likely, and is my suspeted scenario too.

[clarkey1880] 30/9/2023 21:24

I love how someone gives a realistic bearish opinion (under) and then all the corporate brokers come out banging on about how great it is.

[dr biotech] 29/9/2023 10:55

I’m guessing this is a potentially criminal investigation - either fraud or bribery. Probably not financially significant (unless there is a fine down the line). I may buy in after the suspension has lifted. Will need more info though



No mention of judicial involvement though, so I could easily be wrong.

[catabrit] 29/9/2023 10:33

Hi Under. I am not sure they will crash. The business updates have been good. The management have been probably about as transparent as they are legally able to be. The fact they’ve responded so promptly to shareholder enquiries suggests they’re mindful of us and my read is that they would like to tell us more but aren’t able to.

The valuation is already very very cheap and I think shareholders will be reassured by the updates. The bigger ones probably have more access to management and those are the ones you want to worry about. Not retail or PI.

I think you’d see a strong bounce if these did crash because of the underlying economics vs the valuation. I mean a major crash of 50% would see these on 1x underlying operating profit say net of cash. Or something stupid like that.

So whilst you can’t rule it out, I fear it unlikely.

They’ve said they expect to resume trading in October so we’re close.

I’m optimistic.

[hpcg] 29/9/2023 10:31

Yes, it was announced in the trading update of 22 September. Indeed we can now surmise there was some malfeasance on the part of someone, based on:

The investigation has been thorough and complex, but is now nearing completion and has focused on a small number of transactions which were carried out between 2006 to 2013.

and in a later paragraph:

The board currently expects to publish final results for FY23 in October 2023, whereafter the board expects to request a restoration of its listing. As far as the board is able, further detail will be provided at that time.

Which is to say we will not get full details.

As I said earlier in the process, this extensive investigation is a good thing from a shareholders point of view. It means the auditor is doing its jobs, unlike numerous other examples of listed companies, and we will have a thoroughly vetted set of accounts going back years.

Trading will initially be volatile, but ultimately the share price will recover the discount arising from the issue and will be priced on its forward prospects.

[undermanager1] 29/9/2023 10:17

Braemar announced a 20 business day extension of its share suspension, and that 20 days passed yesterday. There has been nothing announced since that deadline passed. There is nothing more guardanteed to spell the slow death of a company than a lack of transparency. I'm predicting the stock will crash if ever the shares are traded again, and the company won't recover from whatever shananigans have been going on in secret.

[tole] 27/9/2023 19:39

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/latest/small-cap-catch-up-bag-time-acrl-and-more/Braemar (LON:BMS) – Undervalued Shares Returning From Suspension Next MonthWell at last we know that the shipping services group is expecting to publish its 2023 results next month, thereafter seeking to return its shares from Suspension.The complex investigation by FRP Advisory into $3m of small transactions way back in the years 2006 to 2013, leading to payments being made for the following four years, is nearing completion.It was laudable of the group's Board to affect the independent analysis and also to suspend its dealings – without doing so I do believe that the shares could well have fallen to 100p to 150p.The shares, which were trading at 324.84p in the second week of January this year, subsequently gyrated between 275p to 310p range for some months before the investigation announcement in late June.On 26th June they fell to 224p before being suspended at 233p.What we do know now is that the group's results to end February will show record revenues, up nearly 50% at around £150m (£101.3m) while the underlying operating profit, also a record, was at least £20m (£10.1m), with a 33% increased dividend at 12p (9p) per share.Net cash at that year end was about £6.9m.As for the current year the company has traded well and is on track to report around £18m of profits.The first half year to end August is likely to report £7m profits, while its forward order book is running 21% higher than the same period last year.Upon return to the market, it is inevitable that there will be a hectic melee of dealings by those traders who now need to get out, or by those 'short' players who will need to rapidly cover positions.It will be the canny ones who watch from the sidelines, until calmer waters are visible, before taking out new positions in what is still a very undervalued cash generating business.

[catabrit] 26/9/2023 08:36

Very reassuring update, especially considering that global trade is at its lowest since 2020. Some of the shipping stocks in the US have broken through new 52-week lows which isn’t surprising considering that they shot up like 1,000 percent from 2020 or something crazy like that.

I know you don’t make as much on the way up but I prefer the broker model. There’s more downside protection, less principal risk.

And we’re getting ours for like a twenty percent FCF yield or whatever it is.

Looking forward for the shares to resume trading. I don’t know if we will hit 300p but we should get a decent bounce.

BMS have handled the situation miles better than my other suspended share.

[1pvh] 22/9/2023 10:43

With earnings of approx 45p for 23 and 40p for 24 and a clean bill of health and money in the bank shares should hopefully soon get above £3.0. Very relieved everything is ok

[edmundshaw] 22/9/2023 07:40

Nice RNS, covering almost all the bases. The proposed dividend seems to reflect that the share reorganization has gone through...

[hpcg] 22/9/2023 07:02

I actually enjoy the suspension - wouldn't mind if the entire market closed over the summer.

[rimau1] 22/9/2023 06:53

Reassuring update, not sure we could ask for more than that. The investigation is P&C so unlikely to receive details unless they are forced into a market announcement. Likely it will evolve into a criminal investigation maybe (money laundering/bribery etc). I will certainly be adding when the suspension lists, its all historical.

[alfred] 22/9/2023 06:29

The reassurances given are welcome, even if the continued suspension isn't, but this whole business continues to be shrouded in mystery. Was all the fuss and lengthy suspension really needed? Questions will need to be answered.

[hpcg] 22/9/2023 06:11

I guess it will open up decently when it eventually returns, overall market not withstanding. Should it not that would be a significant buying opportunity, again depending on what broader markets are doing,

[grahamburn] 16/9/2023 14:33

Hadn't thought of the potential for a more formal investigation process, but that definitely offers a sensible scenario.

[edmundshaw] 15/9/2023 21:24

I also got quick responses to my questions. Basically I asked for three things to be covered (via RNS) an idea of
1) when the Company's 2023 annual report and accounts will be available,
2) more detail on the issues, and
3) an update on trading in the 7 months since the 2023 year end

Company Sec gave the standard reply you got, Nigel Payne also said he would cover all points as soon as he possibly can. I suspect they are as frustrated as we are, and I wonder if there is some police or other official investigation that is blocking them... interminably...

[deanowls] 15/9/2023 15:29

If the style is radio silence for so long I don’t like it.

Wouldn’t take anything for them to RNS that there has been no further incidents that would cause material write downs and give an approximation of further updates.

This isn’t a two bit company, or so we hope.

[jeff h] 15/9/2023 13:39

On 3rd July the group announced that Braemar’s shares were subject to a Temporary Suspension of Listing and Trading.

That was more than two months ago and not a whisper from the company nor from any of its advisers, so I considered it time to ask what the situation was by contacting the group’s Company Secretary.

The Company Secretary, Braemar

On behalf of several subscribers to The Master Investor website I have been asked to find out exactly what is going on now at Braemar and why have its shares been suspended for so long?

Are they due for an early return to Dealings?

Reply within hours from The Company Secretary

Dear Mark

Thank you for your email.

As previously announced on 26 June 2023, the board and the Group’s auditors have been assessing certain liability balances, including pertaining to a particular transaction, which originated in 2013 and involves payments being made through to 2017.

The investigation is ongoing and good progress is being achieved, a further announcement will be made on completion of the investigation.

We expect to seek re-listing of the shares once the accounts are published.

My reaction – I was impressed by the quick response, so many companies are rarely this prompt.

Alas though we shall just have to hang fire for a while yet, which is a shame.

I have seen a piece reported in late August, not on the main company news channel, suggesting that Braemar’s suspension would be extended for another 20 days.

However, the intervening period of time has seen the market as a whole under pressure, so holders should, perhaps, be grateful for the shares not being subjected to a wave of ill-founded rumours.

Even so it will be interesting to see just how well framed the situation will be revealed to the Braemar shareholders.

I continue to be a massive fan of the group and its Management style and still consider that its potential is considerably in advance of even its suspended share price of 233p.

Is news getting closer, my gut feeling is that we will not have to wait too much longer.

[mystericon] 15/9/2023 11:25

Exactly, alfred. It will soon be 3 months since the shares were suspended and there's not even been any guidance about when the revised accounts might be ready. So the suspicion at the moment is that this may well have a lot longer to run. In the meantime the company's owners have been left financially stranded, unable to sell their shares even if they need to do so and all through no fault of their own. Unfortunately the lengthening delay and continuing silence from the board does not inspire confidence in the process. If the problems were as relatively small-scale in financial terms as we were at first assured by the directors, with supposedly no big impact on the company, then it really shouldn't be taking this long for a competent team to resolve the matter and at least allay investors' growing concerns by announcing a provisional release date for the accounts. Alternatively the length of time this is taking without any sign of a conclusion encourages the view that the problem is not in fact quite so minor after all. Either way, the directors do not seem to me to be justifying their very generous compensation packages or doing anything to fulfil their obligations to the shareholders.

[alfred] 14/9/2023 07:05

How can an investigation being carried out at a snail's pace warrant being described as achieving good progress.

[edmundshaw] 12/9/2023 09:56

I recently sent an email prompting management for some kind of update to the market. I got this reply:

"Thank you for your email. Good progress is being achieved with the investigation and as it remains ongoing, we are not able to comment in any detail at this stage. A further announcement will be made to the market on completion of the investigation, and we expect to seek re-listing of the shares once the accounts are published"

A nudge cannot hurt, but I feel no wiser either on the investigation or on current trading...