Braemar Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 26/6/2024 11:41

Comment today from SCSW message board FWIW.....

"BenHazz 8:35am

Got chatting to a guy working in freight yesterday during the England game as it was so drab. He of course mentioned the red sea but also said that more and more freight ships are being used between China and South America, the added competition leaving less availability for China to Europe which is keeping costs higher. No idea how accurate his comments are as I'd never met him before in my life, and know very little about the sector and its workings. He was confident however that freight costs would not be coming down any time soon..."

[masurenguy] 21/6/2024 08:27

FY24 Final Dividend

The AGM will be held on Wednesday, 3 July 2024. Subject to shareholder approval at the AGM, the FY24 final dividend will be paid on 9 September 2024 to shareholders who are on the register at the close of business on 2 August 2024, with a corresponding ex-dividend date of 1 August 2024.

[rivaldo] 06/6/2024 13:14

Interesting post elsewhere re an industry commentary on rising freight rates:

"FEWB MARKET UPDATE

04 JUNE 2024

FAR EAST WEST BOUND RATES SPIKING

Further to our May 13th update, the situation in Asia continues to deteriorate.

Demand is outstripping supply causing ocean rates to surge and space on vessels sailing towards Europe is becoming even scarcer.

This problem is compounded further with a lack of empty 40ft High Cube containers, particularly in Northern China.

Industry analysts are predicting ocean freight rates for a 40ft to reach $10,000 by July, although this is only a prediction, we are seeing all carriers increase their rates on an almost daily basis now.

Today ALL carriers are >100% booked and therefore rolling containers, with various carriers confirming they already have roll pools in excess of 5000 containers.

With the surge in demand and the roll over containers this is compounding the problem further as the main gateway ports are becoming overwhelmed, with vessel berthing times increasing further and effecting schedule reliability.

There is no doubt that these issues are not going to be resolved in the short term and we would continue to encourage all of our customers to book as far ahead as possible, with a minimum of 4 weeks notice.

Future Forwarding will do everything we can to mitigate the problems and delays, but please understand this is an industry problem beyond our control.

We will continue to keep you informed with any developments and once again, thank you for your continued support.

With kind regards

Future Forwarding Co. Ltd"

[rivaldo] 06/6/2024 09:24

Well, it looks like BMS didn't make the Small Cap cut this quarter after all. That web page has been pretty accurate in the past.....typical!

[rivaldo] 05/6/2024 11:08

Per the link below the FTSE index changes are announced tonight (after the close). Again per the link, BMS are still due to be promoted tonight to the Small Cap Index:

[rivaldo] 05/6/2024 07:27

From today's Times - Maersk "raises its profit guidance for second time in four weeks amid rise in freight costs":



"The Danish shipping giant AP Moller-Maersk lifted its profit guidance for the second time in the past four weeks on Monday on the back of rising freight prices amid disruption to the global network.

Maersk said that a surge in demand for goods caused by businesses replenishing inventories before the busy Christmas trading period had added to existing pressure on global supply chains.

This dynamic has pushed up freight rates sharply in recent weeks, boosting the finances of the world’s foremost shipping companies."

"A concoction of factors have served to jolt international supply chains over the past year, reigniting a sharp increase in freight rates after they surged during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic."

"Attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea by Houthi rebels in response to Israel’s offensive in Gaza have forced vessels to reroute around the southern tip of Africa, elongating transit times.

Strong demand for tradeable goods from businesses seeking to fill stocks ahead of the busy festive period has collided with already strained supply chains. Businesses typically source their Christmas stock months in advance."

"According to Drewry, the supply chain advisers, the average cost of a container has climbed to $4,226, above the peak reached in the immediate aftermath of the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

Analysts at Jefferies, the broker, said: “Container freight rates have surged across the majority of global routes recently due to capacity constraints, healthy underlying demand and a head start to peak season.”

Deutsche Bank analysts said that Maersk had only highlighted all “the trends that we already know such as strong demand, Red Sea disruption and port congestion”."

[edmundshaw] 03/6/2024 09:19

Yes, gone for now are the days of "Just In Time" management...it's now stock up while you can!

[rivaldo] 03/6/2024 09:06

Having read that the Baltic Exchanges' main sea freight index, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, rose again on Friday marking a 7.7% rise in May, I also note this new article on the BBC:



"Shops rush for Christmas stock as shipping costs surge"

"Container prices, which peaked in January and briefly declined, have rebounded sharply in recent weeks"

"Mr Glynn explained that the spot rate - the current price for immediate delivery of goods - has dramatically increased in recent weeks from $4,500 to $7,500 (£3,500 to £5,900).

"This makes a massive impact on big bulky items, especially those that have low margins such as furniture, barbecues, and kitchen appliances," he said."

"Disruptions caused by Yemen's Houthi movement have limited the global supply of shipping space and containers."

"Shipping costs have soared as a result. The average cost of shipping a 40ft container now exceeds $4,000, a 140% increase from 2023, according to freight market tracker Xeneta.

Peter Sand, Xeneta's chief analyst, said that importers have learned many lessons from the pandemic including that "the most straightforward way to protect supply chains is to ship as many of your goods as you can as quickly as possible".

"That is what we are seeing with some businesses telling us they are already shipping cargo for the Christmas period - in May," he said."

[rivaldo] 31/5/2024 11:54

Edison have just released an update note after the prelims.

They've increased their target price to 535p (from 500p).

They forecast 42.8p EPS this year, rising to 46.9p EPS next year. That's a P/E of 6.7 at 288.5p, falling to 6.1.

There's also a 14p dividend, rising to 16p - a 4.8% yield. Net cash at £2.9m at Feb'25 is then forecast to rise to £8.3m:



Conclusion:

"Valuation: Lifted from 500p/share to 535p

Braemar enters FY25 with an orderbook that is up 47% y-o-y to $82.6m and strong
fundamentals, with tanker rates remaining robust and depressed dry cargo rates
set to recover. Furthermore, the global fleet continues to grow, while at the same
time the existing fleet continues to age, implying pent up renewal demand that will
need to be addressed within the foreseeable future. Our forecasts are largely
unchanged but we have rolled over the base year for our dividend discount model
(DDM) valuation, which leads to an increase from 500p to 535p/share."

[tomps2] 29/5/2024 10:33

Braemar (BMS) Full Year 2024 results presentation - May 2024

Braemar CEO, James Gundy, CFO, Grant Foley and COO, Tris Simmonds present the group’s results for the year ended 29 February 2024, followed by Q&A.

Watch the video here:

Or listen to the podcast here:

[rivaldo] 28/5/2024 11:16

Finncap have increased their target price to 392p (from 385p).

They forecast 44.93p underlying EPS this year (38.1p EPS fully diluted), a P/E of 6.6 at 294.5p. And a 14p dividend, i.e a divi yield of 4.8%.

They note that "these are conservative forecasts, reflecting the current stable business operations, and do not assume the addition of a significant number of experienced broking teams or the impact of future M&A. Obviously these are core elements of the growth strategy, providing potential upside to our forecasts."

They summarise:

"Outlook.

The worldwide fleet remains low by historic levels and seaborne trade continues to grow, providing a positive outlook for the business, notwithstanding normal cyclical movements in individual shipping sectors. Various events around the world have led to increased voyage distances, placing further supply pressure on the worldwide fleet. Braemar ended FY24 with a strong order book and reports a positive start to FY25. The strategy remains to grow market share and expand the business by adding new broking desks or adding to existing ones, and via potential M&A should the right targets emerge and make a good fit with Braemar.

Our DDM valuation analysis implies a target price of 392p (385p previously), a potential 29.4% upside. At the current 303p, the FY25E P/E (underlying EPS) is 6.7x (8.0x adjusted diluted), with an EV/EBITDA (underlying) of 4.4x and our forecast 14p dividend provides a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%."

[rivaldo] 23/5/2024 22:50

Impressive turnaround today.

And good to see the CEO buying another almost £20k of shares - he now owns 778,765 shares so has quite an incentive.

[hpcg] 23/5/2024 15:38

1pvh r.e. dividend. The date isn't listed. It will presumably be September or October depending on when the AGM is.

[cwa1] 23/5/2024 14:53

CEO share puchase:-

[qs99] 23/5/2024 14:35

Blue by the end of the day?

[qs99] 23/5/2024 11:28

And off we go

good point re divi, I couldn't find it either

[1pvh] 23/5/2024 09:21

Can't seem to see the dividend payment date?Can anyone assist?

[qs99] 23/5/2024 08:40

Not sure I agree, they are stating the facts, the forward order book is the forward order book, as long as they are consistent each year in how they present it, if they are then not a problem

Exceptionals esp the "investigation" of over £2m should hopefully be history

Net Cash still despite all that, should grow this year, making the EV/EBITDA ratio even lower, if management are not up to it, an acquirer will take a look IMO...

The one I do have an issue is such a big forex loss....surely the CFO should be hedging with that sort of risk?

DYOR

[eezymunny] 23/5/2024 08:21

All seems to designed to egg things up. Unnecessary and very easy to spot IMO.

[eezymunny] 23/5/2024 08:18

Significant exceptionals...

[eezymunny] 23/5/2024 08:17

Lots of dilution from share options (diluted EPS only 29.96, ignoring exceptionals).

[eezymunny] 23/5/2024 08:13

The order book not so interesting when you read "forward order book of $83m at the end of February 2024 ($38m of which is for the financial year ending February 2025).

[masurenguy] 23/5/2024 08:07

Positive results as previously indicated in their trading update. The 36% increase in their Risk Advisory division was particularly impressive. Their future prospects look very good especially with the forward order book of $83m

[qs99] 23/5/2024 07:51

EV/EBITDA looks wrong IMO, too low, net cash, decent yield, forward order book way ahead of last year, corporate troubles behind it....time to look forward, glad I topped up....DYOR

[rivaldo] 23/5/2024 07:26

In line results as already flagged show 36.62p EPS - a historic P/E of 8.3 - and a very positive outlook, with order books up a whopping 47% at $82.6m.

Operating profit would have been higher at £20.6m compared to £20.1m, if it hadn't been for acquisition-related costs and an unfavourable foreign exchange swing totalling £4.1m.

The outlook is rather promising:

"The overall market outlook remains positive. Geo-political and natural events, as well as environmental considerations are leading to longer voyage times, and global seaborne trade continues to grow, while the total fleet size remains at similar levels.

We started FY25 with a strong forward order book at $82.6m, and will continue to invest in our people, offices, and technology, whilst taking advantage of a fragmented shipbroking market to hire and make acquisitions. I look forward to another strong performance by the Group."