Braemar Share Discussion Threads

[clarkey1880] 12/11/2023 14:20:16

“ i wouldn't worry about the shipping market backdrop”

Erm, redwing, i ABSOLUTELY would worry about both the shipping market and macro backdrop - as these elements have not been priced in during the suspension.

IE this stock will open BEARISH and will hoof off, holders of the stock will brick it and sell, causing more bear moves to bring in in line to market levels for a firm of this nature

[redwing1] 11/11/2023 08:33:40

I wouldn't worry about the shipping market backdrop, as this is all about what has delayed the Braemar accounts. If it is bad then all bets are off and it certainly should be something serious to take this much time, but if not the shares should rally.

It beggars belief to see the way management has handled this situation. No where near enough information provided and an aloof and arrogant approach towards shareholders that doesn't reflect at all well.

[clarkey1880] 10/11/2023 18:45:27

Friends - i was banging on about the macro effect to braemar thats coming to negatively pressure the share price.

One other thing to add to that macro woe is EU ETS - this means dramatically inflated shipping costs, most likely to cause disruption and drop in transaction liquidity.

The horizon for BMS is stormy… if this wasnt suspended have been priced in - yes.

Will this be bearish if / when it re lists - yes.

I was reminded of a similar story to bms - stobart…

[catabrit] 05/11/2023 23:53:42

That is a fair comment, Dan. That said, it is kinda reflected in the multiple you are paying at 218p.

[clarkey1880] 05/11/2023 21:51:52

Genuinely, for me there isnt enough value in shorting it. But i suspect it will fall aignificantly when re-listed.

Imo, if the management were any good (i think theyre all terribly out of their depth’s) then the company should initiate a buyback, when it thunders off after being re listed and hold for long play. But they won’t, because theyre clueless.

Ps thanks for the ship owner note - i always assumed it was a depreciation tax write off game

[dan_the_epic] 05/11/2023 20:33:16

I totally agree.

[clarkey1880] 05/11/2023 19:34:20

Gotcha ok. I thought you were trying to draw a parallel with bms not being effected by Maersk cuts - which i fully expect it will, given the macro reasoning behind the Maersk cuts.

Without question the global macro picture is slowing - this will mean less demand for shipping, across the pie.

Bloomberg 6 days ago : “ If the oil market offers clues about the state of the economy, it’s through the prism of two petroleum products: diesel and naphtha. And in Europe, the news is bleak.”



So thats maersk calling the end of the party on dry, bloomberg calling a drop in wet and petchem. Thats just charter.

Then s&p - as i said financing is impossible atm, although i guess it could be bolstered by firesale - but again, bms would have to be strong to win those and i’m not sure theyre great on s&p.

I’m moving to guilts and buyout / turnaround funds myself.

Thoughts welcome

[catabrit] 05/11/2023 19:09:02

Sorry Clarkey, it might be because I was not very clear. With the real estate advisory firms like Savills and CBRE they are obviously correlated to global GDP. They’re correlated to markets and what is happening in certain sub sectors. A big chunk of their revenue is transaction based. However, many of them have diversified into more recurring revenue streams that is less cyclical and more resilient. A lot of people forget that. So sometimes they see that the office sector is struggling or capital markets in general and they sell. They tend not to appreciate that the revenue stack has changed and for the better I might add.

The point was made in relation to someone pointing at one segment of shipping and ignoring the rest. Now I am not saying the rest is good or resilient. Instead I am saying you have to take the whole pie into account I.e. how are the other segments of the wider shipping industry performing.

That’s all.

I hope that is clearer?

For the record, I am not espousing that those other sectors are performing better. Someone else more knowledgeable can debate that.

I am just saying, don’t extrapolate from one slice of the pie.

[clarkey1880] 05/11/2023 17:02:07

Catabrit - i don’t understand your savills or cbre comparison.

Maersk own ships, so your savills analogy doesn’t work. Maersk is making layoffs because the global economy is faltering.

Global slowdown effects all lines of bms’ shipping business, container, dry, wet, dirty, clean, chem, energy.

Did you see recently the demand for naphtha and other feedstocks in EU has dropped because of inflationary pressure and global slowdown? Ie less chem being shipped…

If global trade demand is off due to inflation, fixtures will drop across all shipping sectors, meaning less deals for bms to win, shipping rates drop, so deals completed drop in value. S&p will get hammered because of interest rates and credit on debt. Etc etc.

Add in a shift in the strength of USD now vs gbp (last year bms outperformed based purely on currency difference at the end of the year).

Tell me i’m wrong, g’wan

[mayojames] 05/11/2023 14:39:41

Totally agree and anyway BMS exposure notgreat.More important container lines react quickly to cargo flows and new tech as margins so small.A broker like BMS are linked to longterm charter rates and new build / S&P so really not imminent factor.Lets see what next few weeks bring but am relaxed.

[catabrit] 05/11/2023 10:57:13

Could not agree more HPCG. People always seem to confuse shipping with containers. Shipping is so much broader than that. BMS goes to pains to explain this in all the presentations. It is like associating Savills or CBRE with offices or residential. Yes that it is a part of their business but it’s not ‘all’ of their business. Most brokers, particularly the listed ones, diversify to avoid exposure to any one vertical.

[hpcg] 05/11/2023 10:52:25

Containers aren't shipping. Clean and dirty tanker rates are high, dry bulk average, gas carrier rates are decent and the Panama canal is restricted because of lack of water. Looks like a pretty good environment for BMS to me. The risk on move in the markets will certainly be helpful, so based on what we know I'd expect a decent up move when this trades.

[undermanager1] 05/11/2023 06:52:51

I've assumed for a while that my shares are worthless and the company is effectively bankrupt, despite the occasionally public announcement. Nothing the Board does is open to any scrutiny - how they have gotten away with that is anyone's guess. No real information has been forthcoming over the events of the last 4 months. The occasional "isn't everything fabulous in the shipping business" announcments by the Board aren't supported by facts; the post-covid shipping boom is well and truly over and companies like shipping Maersk are currently making massive layoffs. I'm really surprised that the major shareholders, and their shareholders, haven't kicked up more a fuss than they have!! Oh well. I only had a few thousand shares as they were in my 'higher risk' band of Holdings. Thank the Lord for a diversified portfolio!! Onwards and upwards .....

[clarkey1880] 30/10/2023 14:48:56

Must be (i sense it in your messages) frustrating to have 20,000 shares held up, especially given bearish market conditions overall, now the market has returned from the summer.

What am i saying ! No, i'm sure this one'll be the counter to the overall FTSE drops! A unicorn perhaps ! ... Of course it will ! keep praying and i'll pray for you too.

Perhaps someone will write you an off book option, so you can mitigate some of your risk around this ...................

[mayojames] 29/10/2023 22:08:23

Hi no reply

[mayojames] 29/10/2023 22:07:49

Hi no reply

[mayojames] 29/10/2023 19:23:59

Hi Clarkey1880
I believed in the spread to a marine services model but they bought companies but did not manage the team or integrate them so the problem might be linked
I have plus 20000 shares - you seem to challenge others how many shares do you hold

[clarkey1880] 29/10/2023 17:20:36

Isn’t it lovely to see all of braemar’s corporate brokers now coming out singing the songs and beating the drums.

Tell me positive vibers, how much equity do you actually own?

[tole] 29/10/2023 13:10:41

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-digging-reading-shipping-and-more/Braemar (LON:BMS) – Getting Ready For Some Cheap Stock With the way that the market is moving currently, on something of a switchback ride, it is probably best that there is yet another delay in the publishing of the accounts of this shipping services group. The company yesterday announced that the independent internal investigation has now been completed, however the resulting actions relating to the historic transactions identified in the investigation have taken slightly longer to implement than previously anticipated. That means that the company now expects to publish its final FY23 results in the middle of next month, with the FY24 interims shortly thereafter. The good news is that the Board expects to seek a restoration of the group's listing after the publication of the FY23 results. The group provides expert investment, chartering, and risk management advice that enables its clients to secure sustainable returns and mitigate risk in the volatile world of shipping and energy. The 2023 results are expected to show revenues of £150m (£101.3m), while underlying operating profit is expected to double to over £20.0m (£10.1m). The shares were suspended at 233p in late June, after having hit 320p in February this year. I remain a big fan of this company, its Management and its prospects, so I will be very pleased to see a resumption of dealings in its equity. When the shares do get their quote back again, I feel that nimble investors may well be able to take swift advantage of the price action, especially when 'locked-in' holders rapidly retrieve their values by selling upon the re-quote. That would certainly be a very good time to jump in for a few, looking for a quick turn.

[grahamburn] 27/10/2023 14:36:53

undermanager1

I do not think the any of the current Board were in place when the issues apparently arose in 2013.

I would presume that, in accordance with Stock Exchange requirements but subject to any potential criminal investigations, a full disclosure of the circumstances will be announced.

[hpcg] 27/10/2023 13:23:27

BMS will literally have the most combed over books of any listed company in London today. The board of directors weren't in place when whatever happened happened.

[undermanager1] 27/10/2023 13:16:27

The shares are going to plummet when they are relisted. Whether they recover is anyone's guess but I suspect not. The root problem here is trust; shareholders have been given no idea on what is going on. They will doubtless not be told because of privacy concerns. If shareholders don't get open and frank disclosures about what the problems were, how can they make sensible judgements about whether they have been sorted, whether any new measures put in place are sufficient? Who wants to trust a board of directors that were in place when whatever issues happened, and who have now clammed up, won't say anything about anything to anyone? We're all just supposed to trust that they are working in our best interests?

Yeh, right.

[hyden] 26/10/2023 23:18:30

FWIW I think that someone has had their hands in the till, which explains the need to conduct such a thorough investigation, and why it has taken so long. The transactions go back well over a decade - people will have moved on and it will have been very difficult to find out exactly what had gone on. The old FD was, imo, removed from his post.

If I am right then there was no other way around this. Trading had to be suspended and the investigation had to be thorough in order to give a full account to shareholders. The remedial actions will include new controls to ensure that this cannot happen again. If, for example, new IT systems / controls need to be put in place then they will need to be robust enough to satisfy the auditors and quite possibly the complexity of this explains the further delay.

I am somewhat relaxed. I expect the share price to be volatile on relisting but, after the initial excitement, I expect a strong bounce to at least 350 in the short term (based on a PE of ~8). A lot will depend on the confidence in the new controls but the current PE of ~5 is far too low imo.

I took a decent-sized punt at 227 on 28th June just before suspension so my view is always going to be optimistic. Good luck to all holders. :-)

[cwa1] 26/10/2023 08:25:31

Another clock reset, Mid November this time :-(

First half results



The Group continues to trade in line with expectations. Underlying operating profit (excluding foreign exchange movements) for H1 FY24 is expected to be not less than £7.0m (H1 FY23: £8.9m, excluding foreign exchange movements). The board also remains confident in the outlook for the second half of the financial year.



Publication of FY23 results and investigation update



Further to the announcement on 22 September 2023, the independent internal investigation has now been completed. The resulting actions relating to the historic transactions identified in the investigation have, however, taken slightly longer to implement than previously anticipated. As a result, the board now expects to publish its final FY23 results in mid-November 2023, with the FY24 interims shortly thereafter. The board expects to seek a restoration of the Company's listing after the publication of the FY23 results.



Previous FY23 guidance remains unchanged, with revenue expected to be not less than £150m (FY22: £101.3m), and underlying operating profit expected to be not less than £20.0m (FY22: £10.1m).



The board will propose at the reconvened AGM (in December 2023), a final dividend of 8 pence per share (2022: 7 pence). Total dividends in respect of FY23 will be 12 pence per share, a 33% increase over the previous year (FY22: 9 pence).