Braemar Share Discussion Threads

[tomps2] 21/11/2023 14:12

Braemar (BSM) FY23 results & H124 webinar

Friday, 1 December, 1:00pm

James Grundy, CEO, Tristram Simmonds, COO and Grant Foley, CFO will present FY23 results and give an update on trading in H124.

Register here: bit.ly/BMS_FY23_webinar

[pireric] 21/11/2023 12:44

You realise you just made a case for 25p downside compared to 175p upside and are not keen to buy the stock

Eric

Separate note - it will be worth tracking this index. This has been strengthening notably recently if you pan it back to a 10-year horizon:

[dan_the_epic] 21/11/2023 11:54

My summary. This is not a stock for me but

FRP taking so long to check everything was in check was incredibly boring and annoying. Thumbs up for using FRP as I have a small holding in FRP ;)

I like Nigel Payne

Good business economics

They need to show they are on top of everything next week at first half results and state they will make £18M ebit again

Shipping markets seem still favouring them. VLCC rates trending up over past weeks. Containers have bottomed

They need to prove better corporate governance. Get some diversity onto the board

Approved the 12p of dividends

No more cavalier acquisitions like in the past into stupid areas of the market. Stick to what you know do broking

Directors need to buy some stock. Gundy and co need to be on the best behaviour

How long is the tail of small brokers in broking to mop up?

If they do all that then this could be at 450p in a year or two. If they mess up again then it will stay at 250p.

[masurenguy] 21/11/2023 11:42

Took an initial position here today following their relisting.

[dan_the_epic] 21/11/2023 10:13

hxxps://www.tradewindsnews.com/shipbroking/braemar-hails-virtuous-circle-of-recruitment-as-broker-numbers-jump-6-/2-1-1555632

Payne argues that this success means “the Braemar brand continues to rise”.

“This is now beginning to create a virtuous circle, in which, as our reputation grows, we are better able to attract high performers, who further enhance Braemar’s performance, working environment, brand and overall client offering to the benefit of all stakeholders,” he said.

[greybroath] 21/11/2023 10:08

It's back!

[dan_the_epic] 21/11/2023 10:08

don't worry about me. I am merely a watcher

[pireric] 21/11/2023 09:20

Agree broadly, although we know they won't kitchen sink FY24 given they are already over halfway through and is underpinning that consensus eps for 36p this year. Its not the sort of business model where you can kitchen sink, e.g. because you have fixed price contracts or some other flexibility that allows you to do so.

Re the minimum £18m of EBIT from next year (£17m ex costs). They finally have the balance sheet and core focus on shupbroking again to hopefully execute. As they point out, it's a very fragmented market. If they can reliably become a towards 40p EPS business, then it seems logical to think this could trade above £4 and potentially towards £5 a share given this is a capex light business model. The group generated £18m of free cash flow last year. £5 would be a Clarkson multiple today. Clarkson should trade at a premium to Braemar but Clarkson itself has tended to be more of a high teens P/E business over time

In terms of shipping markets, a lot of the energy and related markets are in a good position. Containerships (BMS is underweight here IIRC) has normalised after all of the pandemic rally, and dry cargo is at the bottom of the cycle and probably improves from here.

Certainly at £2.65, the balance of upsides against downsides feels very attractive.

Eric

[rimau1] 21/11/2023 08:38

Indeed Pireric BMS is very cheap on every metric (price/book, xearnings, cash adjusted etc). For balance my bear case points are (1) with my CEO hat on I would kitchen sink y/e Mar'24 and focus on hitting FY25 expectations - which i have personally priced in (2) external markets / shipping downturn. Thats all i have.Dan the epic - i just re-read your recent posts/views on BMS, hope you were not on the wrong side of the trade.

[pireric] 21/11/2023 08:29

I see this settling out much closer to £3 over the coming weeks.

At 265p it's a roughly £87m market cap, with £7m net cash, and a forward P/E of 7.4x. Which feels pretty punitive and again I can see investors willing to credit a decently higher multiple here. I would also argue that FRP having run their slide rule over the accounts means this deserves a higher multiple than before

Consensus 2024 forecast 36p.

Clarkson (better outfit) trades closer to 12x.

Eric

[rimau1] 21/11/2023 08:26

Not true, bought in 3 x £3k blocks between 8am and 8.01am. Highest paid £2.43. But who cares Dan?! Good luck all.

[hyden] 21/11/2023 08:23

Well, it's a smaller initial bounce than I'd hoped for but it's a start. Let's see what the coming days bring. Good luck all.

[dan_the_epic] 21/11/2023 08:07

you only doubled up at 237 if your holding is like 500 shares or something otherwise there was no liquidity

[rimau1] 21/11/2023 08:04

Well i doubled up at £2.37 on the bell. I'm a long term fan. if anything else we missed a 10% market move over the past week based on Clarkson and my model suggests BMS should be at least £2.94 to trade in line with forward net assets (even in a difficult 2024 market)

[hyden] 21/11/2023 07:59

For any interested persons, I've found the actual text of the ruling:



It relates to historical activity between Jan and Mar 2022. The ruling was issued in August 2023 so I am not sure why this has only surfaced now. It is not, imo, a widespread compliance issue but rather a failure of a small number of individuals, possibly two or three. It is embarrassing and looks poor but I don't consider it a problem.

[cwa1] 21/11/2023 07:41

Indeed...eyes down...

[hpcg] 21/11/2023 07:33

Restored to trading.

[cwa1] 21/11/2023 07:30

From the above:-

The charges follow an NFA review of Braemar’s FFA desk activity for the first three months of 2022.
The regulator has accepted a settlement offer submitted by Braemar Securities, which is categorised by the regulator as an introducing broker for freight forward agreements (FFAs). The firm has neither admitted nor denied the allegations but agreed to pay the fine. TradeWinds has contacted the company for further comment.

Fine was $140,000

[hpcg] 20/11/2023 09:47

Report now published so if not today I would think tomorrow. Tomorrow makes more sense than mid session IMO.

[hyden] 20/11/2023 08:15

No, the shares will relist once the annual reports and accounts are filed with Companies House. The uncertainty is around the historical unsettled commissions payable, for which a £2m provision has been made. The actual payment(s), if and when due, could ultimately be lower, maybe zero, or even a lot higher. The figure of £2m is simply a 'best guess' but will have been signed off by the auditors so we should at least take comfort from that.
I am a little disgruntled that the shares have not been relisted today - there is no excuse imo - but I will just have to be patient a little while longer.

[typo56] 20/11/2023 07:27

After c£2.5m of costs regarding the investigation they still say,

"As the ultimate potential obligations and outcomes in relation to the transactions subject to the internal independent investigation are uncertain, there remains a risk that the final outcomes could materially impact the recognised balance. It is impracticable to provide sensitivity estimates of potential downside variances at this time."

Perhaps the shares have to remain suspended until such time they have a better grip on the final outcome? Apparently, c£2.5m of costs regarding the investigation are insufficient to buy such clarity.

[hpcg] 18/11/2023 00:52

redwing - agree. These are audited accounts where the files for the CT600 should be ready to go. We can all check on companies house of course (no, they haven't been filed yet). In any case investors are starting to look through a period of economic weakness ongoing and for the next 6 months with smaller caps being bid in the US and here.

[redwing1] 17/11/2023 16:23

No, I think the resumption of share trading will likely be some time early next week, Graham. I think the filing can be made faster in circumstances like these.

[grahamburn] 17/11/2023 15:25

It's fairly clear and straightforward from this paragraph in the RNS on 14 November:

"The Group will seek a restoration of trading in its ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange following the publication of the FY23 results and filing of the 2023 Annual Report and Accounts."

Filing usually occurs a couple of weeks or so after the announcement of the results.

So.....early/mid December, depending on:

- when filing occurs
- when the company seeks a restoration
- how long the LSE takes to respond