Bisichi Share Discussion Threads

[andydaf] 31/1/2023 18:46

A sad rns tonight.Thoughts with his family,by all accounts a charitable man and whilst we all see ourselves as armchair ceos/chairman its no mean feat to run a company for over half a century.

[robizm] 31/1/2023 17:46

Death of chairman may shake this company up
.

[gaffer73] 24/1/2023 11:02

Nice to see this moving back up towards 300p again, let's hope it can hold this time.

[tim000] 13/1/2023 11:47

I agree with your general assessment Andy. One thing I’d add about volatility is that European nations (and possibly Japan and S Korea) were desperate to stockpile SA thermal coal ahead of their winters, and were willing to pay whatever price for the coal that was available. That squeezed demand into a shorter period than normal, forcing up prices last summer/autumn but depressing them thereafter as demand fell away as countries were fully stocked. I doubt the same volatility will be evident this year, unless there are unusual weather patterns. But as you say, lower energy prices should lead to recovery in European economies and hence higher coal demand. As they say, the best remedy for low energy prices is low energy prices. Longer term, I think we all agree that the obsession with renewable energy will create an energy deficit, which coal demand will help to address.

[tim000] 13/1/2023 11:39

At long last I’ve discovered the correct source for the company’s statements on outturn API-4 coal export prices. It’s the IMF Primary Commodity Price System (PCPS). If anyone’s interested, the SA coal export price data in US $ are available on the IMF website. I’ve yet to find the sources used by IMF to compute these data, but it appears they are not futures prices.

The data are now available for December. Outturns show quarterly averages during 2022 of $237, $317, $318 and $212. Half yearly averages are $277 and $265.

Translated into £, the half-yearly averages are £213 and £225.

[andydaf] 12/1/2023 16:30

Normal pattern in the coal price over this winter period.India has now instructed its power generators to import coal to ensure there is enough for the summer peak.This should benefit south african coal prices.With enhanced production at black whattle in my opinion at 150 a ton Bisichi will still be printing money.Do not forget energy has only come down in price because china and the west have shuttered much industrial production.As soon as it fires up again energy will be short and prices rise.My theory is prices(oil/gas/coal)will be volatile,as industrial production expands prices will rise again.Time will tell if i am right but as always the best luck to all.

[gaffer73] 12/1/2023 15:15

Last year's average will be a lot higher which will show in the results.

[e43] 12/1/2023 15:14

Yes , current daily drip down in coal price sapping a little confidence,but it should be remembered $160t still a very profitable price.Feel $150 is going to be an important support level.
BISI should be sitting on a decent cash pile at present,What they decide to do with it is the question.

[bozzy_s] 11/1/2023 23:25

Not posted here for many months. Seems you guys have picked up some knowledgeable, sensible posters and investors.

Looks like the current Richard Bay coal price is $166/t which explains BISI's recent weakness. I found the live price on - says that the price has dropped 30% in the last month.

It'll be interesting to see what happens if that goes back above $200.

How big a dividend will BISI pay? They've got the history of splitting profits ~ 97:3 directors:investors (I'll look for my old post on this shortly) so a FY dividend in the region of 20p would be a change in policy, and should lead to a re-rating if it's to be repeated in future years.

[sage of suffolk] 05/1/2023 14:53

Colonial Coal International, ticker code CAD on TSXV exchange worth a look. 695 million tons of metallurgical coal in Peace River coal district of British Columbia.
The shares are changing hands for around $1.30. Thee assets are for sale with around 10 NDA's in place. Crucially the management have done this before. (google David Austin Western Coal Walter Energy). Two other Coal transactions done in British Columbia pre Covid in 2019 @ average price of US$2.20 per ton –
These deals suggest the share price projections below are conservative as we have inflation and the price of met coal has increased since 2019. The target take out share price is around $8 / $9 and hopefully this will happen in 2023 - maybe within 6 months.

Here is the investor presentation:-


Aide Memoir:- 174.3 m shares plus 9.1m options so total 183.4 million fully diluted shares, 695 million tons of metallurgical/coking coal.
Current target / for sale value is US$2 per ton, which is the in the ground value, equates to CAD$2.54.
695m x $2.54 is $1,76Bn. Divided by 183.4m shares gives us an initial $9.60 target share price.

Do review these links:-

[tim000] 05/1/2023 14:37

I sometimes reference World Bank Pink Sheets RBCT API-4 coal price data. I had thought these were based on spot prices, but in fact they're one-month forward prices taken from forward markets. API-4 outturn data quoted by BISI might be spot rates (they mention averages of weekly figures, but not whether from spot or forward markets). Nevertheless, the two are usually very similar, eg BISI quotes figures of $65/t, $125/t and $277/t for 2020, 2021 and 2022 H1 respectively, while comparable Pink Sheets figures are $66/t, $120/t and $259/t.

The Pink Sheets outturn figure for H2 is $324/t, giving a yearly average of $291.5/t.

The only other data I have is from the TGA Trading Update RNS last month, which quoted a YTD average (Jan-Nov) of $277/t, compared with $124/t in 2021 and $277/t in 2022 H1. Note the 2021 and 2022 H1 figures are the same as quoted by BISI.

[bisiboy] 04/1/2023 15:19

i agree and expect the bonuses are paid quicker

[tim000] 03/1/2023 18:12

It’s silly that an interim dividend for the results to June 2022 isn’t paid until February 2023! I doubt any other company waits so long. Something to ask the management about.

[gaffer73] 03/1/2023 18:01

So it does, it's been that long I'd forgotten about it!

[tim000] 03/1/2023 17:57

Goes xd on Thursday I believe. Might be attracting dividend hunters.

[gaffer73] 03/1/2023 17:37

Could see a rise into the results here.

[bisiboy] 21/12/2022 21:57

Yes happy Christmas and a bisi new year

[tim000] 21/12/2022 07:22

Same to you Andy

[andydaf] 21/12/2022 06:39

Strange game this share picking.Ben loss making but if i read correctly hoping to ramp up to 840000 tons a year(albeit met coal)seems to garner peoples interest more than Bisichi who we know are profitable,pay a dividend and with a fair wind can mine 1million tons plus a year.Looking at Bens half year report senior management at Ben are just as greedy as Bisichis so i really do not understand how a loss making coal mine can be valued at 60million(and its been higher)where as a mine thats making in my opinion 40million plus a year is only worth 32million.Time will tell so all thats left is for me to wish everyone a happy christmas and prosperous new year GLA

[tim000] 20/12/2022 08:22

BEN, over twice BISI’s mkt cap. What’s BEN got that we haven’t? Large losses, that’s what!

[tim000] 12/12/2022 19:50

I’ve been reading more on the Optimum Coal/RBCT dispute. As I read it, RBCT’s owners are trying to take back Optimum’s export rights for their own use, possibly by questionable means. So maybe these export rights will remain with one or the other, and not leak out to other miners.

[tim000] 12/12/2022 10:41

Thanks! The BEE minnows are likely to get a look in.

[8gggggggg] 12/12/2022 10:28

There is report that Optimum coal have lost their slot at Richard's Bay..... hopefully Vunani can secure future slots for BISI

[tim000] 12/12/2022 07:56

So about 15k shares sold a week ago