Bisichi Share Discussion Threads

[e43] 28/8/2022 09:06

Feel the investment portfolio is abit of a side show at present.
BISI this year is all about getting export tonnes too port and sold .A few weeks production dwarfs the difference between an average or good performance of the few million invested in the portfolio.
Much prefer to hear news regarding sensible investment to strengthen their coal business going forward.

[tim000] 27/8/2022 23:14

Doesn’t it depend how successful they are as fund managers? If they have invested in coal stocks and made large profits with associated dividend income, would you change your mind? There are good and bad fund managers, if BISI are good (ie wisely investing in energy stocks) then I’m not going to complain.

Coal prices are rising again in futures markets, coal stocks should be immune from macro forces just as O&G stocks are.

[rimau1] 27/8/2022 21:28

I’ll disagree. I am not a fan of the equity portfolio in general terms because i can’t think of a company where it works well (CAPD are constantly criticised and their rating suffers, Tesla buying bitcoin high and selling low also springs to mind). This makes intuitive sense, i buy BISI primarily for coal exposure, i would buy a fund manager if i wanted an indirect equity investment portfolio as in theory they know better. Then more specifically i am not a fan due to lack of disclosure/transparency. If i was told that the equity investments comprise of strategic investments in companies aligned to our energy interests that would be ok but we don’t know anything other than the fair value and the UK vs non UK listed proportion. Fortunately as our market cap grows it becomes less of an issue. Actually I hope they sold it down on Thursday because next week is looking painful on a macro level!! They can then use the £3-£4m to pay higher dividends / finance the property development in Ealing and indirectly assist LAS to refinance their debt.

[tim000] 27/8/2022 10:30

In the days when the BISI AR was more informative, they stated the fund was focussed on commodities (but not necessarily energy). At the AGM, their new non-exec Director (a fund manager) stated he was very pro energy stocks. I’d be surprised if their equity portfolio hasn’t performed well.

[andydaf] 27/8/2022 09:32

In many ways the equity portfolio will be the most interesting part of the interims.How much its lost or gained will allow us to make a reasonable stab at the sectors they have invested in.Hopefully it would be in what they know and they have bought lots of energy.From memory TGA was around 4 quid last xmas 17quid now but for all i know they could have gone heavy into cineworld.7am tues/weds we will know.GLA

[e43] 27/8/2022 08:19

GF123, personally having taken a good size position here last autumn,I sold a few shares on the way up as a matter of normal portfolio management,I"ve since bought them all back as higher prices as med term prospects have improved dramatically.
Many reasons right or wrong to sell,I remember back in February the shareprice rose v strongly one morning(on Indonesian coal export ban) 30%ish to about 130p only for a few large sell's to take the price back nearly to where it started.Always difficult to know!

[tim000] 27/8/2022 08:05

I think you’re right Andy. He still has some stock to profit from next week. It’s notable that the company has not issued any statement regarding its share price rise, indicating that it’s perfectly comfortable with the increase. Personally I think there are more upside factors to our profits forecasts this year than downside risks. Upside factors include profits from the equity portfolio and the possible use of deferred tax assets to reduce tax liabilities.

[andydaf] 27/8/2022 07:50

I could well be wrong but i believe the gentleman exiting his position here is in his late seventies.With Bisi at multi year highs and fairly liquid i can understand his logic.GLA

[andydaf] 27/8/2022 06:52

I think we are all looking forward to the interims next week to see if we are right or wrong!If i am right and fossil fuel prices hold up over the next few years the dividend payouts will be immense.It is important to note that the majority of Bisichi revenues are in $,i certainly wouldnt want to be long sterling and euro going into a energy crisis.Lets hope interims are storming and GLA

[gf123] 27/8/2022 06:43

Took a position here myself last week. I am expecting good results as most others are but interesting as to why this seller is offloading at this particular time

[tim000] 27/8/2022 04:52

Peabody Energy (a bellwether coal miner) was down just 0.4% in the US on Friday. UK investors are going to turn to fossil fuel stocks - all paying extraordinary dividends - out of necessity to protect their wealth. Even little old BISI has already seen an enormous spike in share trading. I suspect this is going to continue after next week’s announcement.

[tim000] 27/8/2022 04:46

I added to my holding Friday. Putin is going to curtail gas supplies to Europe next winter in order to get a favourable settlement for Russian permanent occupation of parts of Ukraine. I can’t see Ukraine accepting this, so Europe is likely to be more reliant on coal for the indefinite future. The outlook for European economies is really poor, Greta Thunberg and her fawning politicians have a lot to answer for in terms of destroying Western energy security. My portfolio is now 70% fossil fuels, the only safe sector that I can see.

[tim000] 25/8/2022 17:13

If sterling stays at its current rate against the dollar, it will boost BISI’s pre-tax profits by about £10 mn this year, and at least a further £4 mn (ie £14 mn above 2021) next year.

[tim000] 25/8/2022 17:05

Probably another 30k disposed of by James Hyslop, now 115k or less.

[tim000] 25/8/2022 16:42

That’s fair. I use the futures prices myself. But even assuming a gradually declining coal price, if coal miners had the same P/E ratios as other miners then BISI would still be worth considerably more than it is now.

[sammu] 25/8/2022 16:35

It's not reasonable to expect coal prices to remain "flat"at current levels. Certainly the market doesn't think this. You could reasonably argue that prices could remain at elevated levels for longer than the market thinks possible/likely as it is very hard/slow to get new supply on, and demand could remain at elevated levels due to energy issues- gas prices etc

[tim000] 25/8/2022 15:01

Many BISI shareholders have some LAS. BISI however offers greater leverage to coal, even at current BISI and LAS share prices.

[chrisdgb] 25/8/2022 14:36

OK thanks, don't usually like missing this amount of upside but LAS still looks an interesting way to play..

[tim000] 25/8/2022 14:34

It’s about 8 years minimum. What’s the value of coal in 8 years’ time? NPV calcs would indicate near zero. I’m not attributing any value anyway.

[chrisdgb] 25/8/2022 14:31

Thanks, no concerns over the relatively short mine life?

[tim000] 25/8/2022 14:02

Put simply, at least £10 if coal prices stay flat

[chrisdgb] 25/8/2022 14:00

Put simply what is this worth at current coal prices...?

[tim000] 25/8/2022 13:10

CINE’s equity was once valued in billions. Let’s hope that’s a portent of BISI’s future.

[tim000] 25/8/2022 13:08

BISI’s equity is now valued higher than that of CINE, one of the largest cinema chains in the world. And better value too!

[someuwin] 25/8/2022 12:50

Last opportunity to buy below £4