Bisichi Share Discussion Threads

[andydaf] 05/11/2022 08:05

The green energy revolution doesnt add up.I believe as i have said before private investors are being given the chance of a lifetime to buy energy companies at stupid prices.Whilst institutions are ploughing their money into esg i am busy ploughing mine into coal,oil and gas.Time will tell who is right and who is wrong.The investors in fossil fuels rightly expect fat dividends and very little capex.When Bisi made a couple of million a year Las would not be bothered so much by capital allocation,now it looks like 30/40 million my best guess is that they will want their share.I fully expect coal prices to be good going forwards and Bisi to make handsome profits.Time will tell but i fully expect another profit warning and a major dividend increase.As always good luck to all.

[tim000] 05/11/2022 07:31

RBCT export prices should average slightly more in H2 than in H1, and domestic prices and sales volumes should be much higher. Hopefully there won’t be any hiccups in H2 in terms of mining productivity at the new site.

[tim000] 05/11/2022 07:16

I don’t know how the RBCT prices are constructed but they surely have to be based on transacted spot prices. The large miners such as Glencore agree fixed-price annual contracts with their customers, but the minnows such as BISI will export at spot prices. Domestic supplies to Eskom are probably at fixed prices, determined annually, but other domestic sales are also probably at spot prices. BISI has suggested that improved coal quality at the new site, plus a tighter domestic market, have resulted in much higher domestic prices in H2 2022.

[tim000] 05/11/2022 07:05

I’m increasingly of the view that climate change is a scam, and that so-called green energy is so costly and unreliable that demand for, and prices of, fossil fuels will remain high for the foreseeable future. There’s been catastrophic underinvestment in new fossil fuel supplies in the West, which is likely to continue. Witness Sunak’s moronic decision to cancel fracking in favour of offshore windmills.

[tim000] 05/11/2022 06:59

Andy, you’re probably right. CASP announced a monthly dividend yesterday with a yield of ca 20% and the share price shot up not surprisingly. The Directors remain as uncommunicative as ever, we don’t know whether they wish to target acquisitions and/or dividends. They can certainly afford a much more generous dividend policy and LAS must surely prefer that.

[andydaf] 05/11/2022 06:09

Well Tim the world bank prices are far higher than the prices i have been able to research online.How long the market can ignore the cash generation at Bisi is anyones guess but i firmly believe the route to a share price rerate will come from the adoption of a sensible dividend policy.50p for the full year should generate some interest.Going forward its my guess that oil/gas/coal are going to be good places to be for the next few years.No capex in fossil fuels will ensure every time economies start to recover prices will surge.As always GLA

[tim000] 04/11/2022 17:10

World Bank monthly “Pink Sheets” report that RBCT coal prices were US$326.60 in October, a record in £ terms.

[tim000] 04/11/2022 17:03

Annual results are out next April. There might be an upside profit “warning”; announced to the market in December. With no broker coverage, and hence no market forecasts, I think the company is duty bound to announce that its 2022 profits will be unprecedented. It will know this in early December.

[gaffer73] 04/11/2022 16:59

Not until March/April

[jeanesy] 04/11/2022 16:52

when are thoe results out please ?

[gaffer73] 04/11/2022 11:52

Coal prices still over $200 and production increases should see great FY results.

[tim000] 04/11/2022 11:15

I'm confident it will get to 500p, it just might take some time to publish results that persuade investors that's the case.

[gaffer73] 04/11/2022 10:57

This should be 500p imo

[tim000] 04/11/2022 10:54

Notwithstanding weak RBCT coal prices recently - which surely is temporary - even on cautious assumptions I still estimate BISI's coalmining cashflow in 2022 of ca £24 mn.

[rimau1] 01/11/2022 13:04

Looking too cheap here. Market cap £26m, H1 PBT £22m! Stronger USD in H2 and coal production should be higher, negatives i guess include the train logistical issues in RSA and an opaque (i am being generous) equity portfolio which has probably taken a big hit.

[tim000] 30/10/2022 09:10

Andy, do you have a source of info on domestic prices? The other key bit of info we don’t have is the percentage profit share of Vunani for the coal mined in H2 2022 and 2023. We’ll just have to await publication of the annual results for that. The company has stated it’s looking at acquiring new assets (either coal mining or renewables), though hasn’t given timeframes. Next news might be a profit warning in December?

[andydaf] 30/10/2022 05:53

With coal prices still around $240 export and $150 domestic Bisi should be repeating something close to H1 profit.Dividend was mean for the first half but i am betting that Las will want a decent final dividend.With no attempt at publicity the share price has drifted down and now trades at a p/e of something like 0.6.Bens creek market cap 90million Bisichi market cap 26million.I know which i would rather own but it seems not many others would agree!as always GLA

[chrisdgb] 06/10/2022 10:39

Just announced by Thungela......

[tim000] 06/10/2022 07:10

Thanks, hadn't seen that.

[e43] 05/10/2022 16:48

Since I wrote that Tim,Transnet rail unions have announced strike action starting on Monday, hopefully the Two sides can resolve their differences quickly.

[tim000] 05/10/2022 09:23

Bought 1200 this morning, first purchase for ages. Agree e43 that BISI deserves to go on a run, whether it will though is anyone’s guess. But the fundamentals continue to improve, including the £/$ rate which might reach parity this year.

[e43] 30/9/2022 15:43

Market looking v tight here,all the loose shares bought nothing on offer this PM.
With what should have been a record Q3 for BiSI just finished the remainder of the year is set up very well.
With TGA closing at a record (dividend adjusted) Price today, general market conditions withstanding would expect BISI to start moving up again soon.

[monet] 06/9/2022 14:21

Can't be far off the results now.

[jeanesy] 06/9/2022 08:09

could you please give me an actual bid /offer price on LAS as the quoted spread seems awfully large at 18/20.6 which is putting me off

[someuwin] 06/9/2022 08:09

Added more BISI too