Bidstack Share Discussion Threads

[chessmaster10] 06/8/2019 20:38

Not completely clear to me how they get to £1.75m total sales (Revenue for H1 2019), considering:

54m impressions per day x 0.13 fill rate = 7m impressions per day (thanks McFly)

7m x 182.5 days = 1,277,500,000 total impressions

Revenue per 1000 impressions = £2

1,277,500,000 / 1000 = 1,277,500

1,277,500 * 2 = 2,555,000 = £2.5m ... shouldn't that be the total sales?

Probably missing something obvious...

[scottman72] 06/8/2019 19:29

If JD does read this BB. Bet he's having a wee chuckle to himself w.r.t SGs stupidity. LOL

[affc21] 06/8/2019 19:27

Thanks also from me McFly,I can see now how you interpret the forecast Daily Impressions from the note.Makes for an interesting lesson for me :)

[hazl] 06/8/2019 19:21

thanks phowdo put on Twitter.

[moneygenxyz] 06/8/2019 18:59

Game on!

Cities XL would be a great one JD

[phowdo] 06/8/2019 18:53

Funding round for the competition.

[mcfly79] 06/8/2019 18:42

https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/edreader/?ltkn=40fd60866a5583961332d4eb553a154clNG4InM%3D&d=%3D%3DwM3QjM

[hazl] 06/8/2019 18:40

post 6024 moneygenxyz what a good post
you say....

'I’ve not heard a balanced post from you since you arrived, it feels very derampy now and I can’t respect that.'

to who was it now......errr.

[moneygenxyz] 06/8/2019 18:37

Thanks McFly again. Do you have the link to the full one? I remember seeing it on the board.I’m going to save it down.

[mcfly79] 06/8/2019 18:29

The note was predicting about 7m impression per day for H1 (54m at a 13% fill rate).

[moneygenxyz] 06/8/2019 18:23

You don’t even apologise for or acknowledge your inaccuracies.

You just steam roll the board with your failed analysis.

That makes you a dangerous poster.

*Edit, he’s now gone through and altered his analysis to make himself look less foolish

[2prsimo] 06/8/2019 18:19

God, you're boring!! I can't wait for James and the team to shut you up and send you away with your tail between your legs.

[superg1] 06/8/2019 18:15

Note forecast

Our model shows Bidstack will be profitable in FY20e and achieve monthly profitability in October 2019.

April news.

We expect to continue to be cash negative in the second half of 2019.

They have warned you albeit in short one liners mixed in all the great news, but they will have to officially declare the forecast missed by some way at some point.

24 games x 54 mill impressions v 7 games and an example of 1 mill per day actual given, is massively wide of the mark for the note forecast.

They quote Asia as big interest hence they use the 1 mill per day is an example for FM.

Clearly their hope is (which aligns with holders) that they can nail the big one before they have to tell the bad news.

Come 30th September they will know how much they are going to miss by, that is the last day they can drag it out to for H1.

So no moaning when the forecast is missed by a mile with costs well up. They have given you the numbers to compare to the note and slipped in one-liner warnings in news.

What it doesn't say in news is that it's a 25 bagger from here "and some" as publicly declared by the CEO.

[moneygenxyz] 06/8/2019 18:09

Wtf

You misinterpret so much.

FM: 1m impressions per day IN ASIA ALONE.

NOT: only 1m impressions per day Worldwide.

Segment specific!

[superg1] 06/8/2019 18:03

So you have 7 actual Live games for H1 v 24 in the note revenue forecast.

1 mill impressions per day for FM v a note using 54 million per day from the 24 live games for H1.

Hence the news says

we expect that revenues in 2019 will be significantly second half weighted with perhaps a more marked split than previously anticipated."

Yep because they are way off on the note forecast for like games and impressions.

It's August and the games are now 8 with 42 live to meet the note forecast by YE, with 24 already forecast as live when it came into H2.

[moneygenxyz] 06/8/2019 17:58

I don’t think that you understand how this works SuperG.

Number of games is irrelevant,

Key revenue drivers are:

1) impressions
2) fill rate
3) CPM

We currently have enough inventory to hit revenues - can we fill it before year end?

Unsure.

Can we fill the inventory over time?

Yes.

If you are recommending against holding due to the interims missing - we’ve heard that message loud and clear and you may well be correct (although you could also be wrong as we have no idea what the metrics are for the drivers above yet)...

I’ve not heard a balanced post from you since you arrived, it feels very derampy now and I can’t respect that.

[superg1] 06/8/2019 17:36

Money

They said 9 somewhere along the line, with some low level ones mentioned, The main ones being Football manager, Dirt rally 2 which was set go live (with Bidstack) in late Q2 so that won't feature for H1. Then you have GRID in September.

No it's not going to hit the forecast revenue in H1 revenue as they have already quite clearly stated that in April which was well into H1.

So if you are talking 2 games as in your post I assume you mean the 2 new ones which as stated one only features for H1 and the other for Q4.

So if they manage £4 mill of those 2 for a combined 9 months instead of 24 instead of 24 live games for H2 then someone needs to be fired.

Those 24 would need 15 new games for H2 and another 18 by year end.

I'll dig them out and list what they said.

[global nomad] 06/8/2019 16:43

comfort breaks are often a welcome distraction

[nicktrade81] 06/8/2019 16:42

I don't get why certain people constantly post negative information on here. It's rarely a kind gesture to warn others, it's more likely that person missed the boat and now trying to get in a better price. This is now the best price but not for much longer!

[hazl] 06/8/2019 16:39

hasn't helped

[mwainw1973] 06/8/2019 16:19

Comforting close

[hazl] 06/8/2019 16:00

That is why I have always found it is better to continue to post the positive findings we have on the company and the sector,or any relevant news we have found from various sources as we would do before.
If you believe in the company of course.

If not, then these people have a foot in the door and dictate the ongoing agenda of the thread.
Don't forget this individual above, was posting on the VRS thread and all over the place, because he was so desperate that he wasn't making any headway here!

Sure the price has dropped back a few pence but most stocks have!

[moneygenxyz] 06/8/2019 15:58

Be funny if we beat the targets with the 2 games (2 according to SG).