Bidstack Share Discussion Threads

[fudgerella21] 06/8/2019 10:22

We are almost at the 3 month point, since we had an rns stating a new game deal, that's what this drop is about. If they are fitting 3 years of work into 1 year, where are the rns's???? Slow progress!!!!

[fudgerella21] 06/8/2019 10:20

Hazl, i know you always like to be positive, but i do think you need to take off your rise tinted specticals.

First half revenue fingers could well be missed, and there is no new news on contracts.

That is why the share price is now being hit hard.

[scottman72] 06/8/2019 10:13

As with all BBs.
Do your own research.
Do not accept any false and unfounded statements from anyone like SG. Particularly if they claim to have insider knowledge.
The best information we have to date on this years revenues are two fold.
1) The 2018 full year report included statements from key members of the BoD. Within this they clearly state that they are on target to meet all market expectations for 2019 (which means both H1 and H2).
2) The revenue from 2018 was mostly due to FM. Although FM was released early November this included a trial period where revenue was either zero or substantially reduced for those participating. This isn't clear at the moment. But taking into account the AVOCET contract and associated increased revenue, £300k per month as a minimum is not an unrealistic proposition, which equates to 1.8m for 6 months.
There's then another 8 games to add into the mix.

[hazl] 06/8/2019 09:51

The above are just 'chancers' that know really, that it is nothing to do with Bidstack but more to do with general economic events that are causing a bit of weakness in stocks everywhere.

And guess what?
The Dow futures are up!
So perhaps all that is about to change!

I was somewhat flattered that 'a certain poster' was following me around ADVFN to find any of my 'laggards'!
It showed how desperate he was!

Still he can get out and close his short now....he must have made a few pence.

[moneygenxyz] 06/8/2019 09:23

Chessmaster,

£100m is total inventory for SI.

You then have to factor in what % is BIDS getting

And how much inventory are they filling (fill rate).

Could be 50% fill rate of 15% profit share.

This will become clearer when numbers are published.

[chessmaster10] 06/8/2019 09:13

Moneygenx,

Regarding your number crunching from yesterday, how do we reconcile the apparantly huge disparity between JD's suggestion of 25m impressions per day (and £100m of inventory?) from FM ALONE... and the Peterhouse estimated total £5.9m revenues for FY 2019 (based on a much larger games portfolio) ?

Something somewhere is not adding up.

Possibly the revenue per impression here is way lower than the suggested $0.01 per impression?

Also, I understand bidstack and the game publisher split the revenue from ads... 50/50, 60/40 (either way)... who knows? But its not clear if the full revenue either 1) comes directly to Bidstack and the split is then passed onto the publisher as a cost to Bidstack, or 2) if the ad revenue is split at source and passed directly to Bids and the publisher.

If it's option 2), this would reduce, quite significantly, the revenue coming into bids and may account for some of the disparity in the estimates.

[superg1] 06/8/2019 09:13

PWhite

Great to see a sensible post warning about the interims.

As pointed out in detail, the revenue forecast is based on 42 LIVE games by the YE and it seems they less than 25% of that.

Dirt was mentioned in Feb but was anticipated to go Live towards the end of H1. Grid doesn't feature until December.

If it drifts to interims like you say IE no big news re more games, or lack of traders buying, then on the news it will get hit as revenue has definitely been missed and costs much higher than forecast.

What I suspect is the case here is PIS hanging in there for a big hit like Fifa or similar, instead of reading the news and seeing that nowhere does it stay they are in advanced talks.

In the note it said they were in advanced talks with some which may be the basis for hope. However they haven't said that in an RNS and you can be sure they would if they were in advanced talks as this is a company in it's over promotion stage.

You suggest the condition which could have some selling which was interesting. I have it as insiders knowing the forecast is going to be missed by some way. The trouble with inflated forecasts is when they miss it has to be reported and the market games missed forecasts.

It all points to money needed on the back of revenue missed by some way, with a Nomad who f'd up blaming the company for the forecast.

So what we do know is news is going of the forecast missed, what we don't know is if they will sign any deals and announce them before that news. One is definite the other is hope.

I. news they go on about needing to add to the tech for mass use??. Then buy a virus/malware protection outfit.

It sounds to me like the tech more of a work in is a work in progress than the IPO suggested.

[global nomad] 06/8/2019 08:35

bought again....

[parob] 06/8/2019 07:43

The Shanghai event finished yesterday so JD will probably be on the way back to the UK now. I would imagine news is getting very close.

[hazl] 06/8/2019 07:00

Hey steveoc what a brilliant site that gamingstreet is thanks!

[angel333] 05/8/2019 21:34

Trades are Trade Reported to the London Stock Exchange.

The LSE see each execution in effect as a 'crossed' trade as each trade will have the following counterparties-

Market Maker to Market Maker (Happens when they look to flatten their positions end of day) - selling market maker reports the trade

Market Maker to Broker - Market Maker reports

Broker to Broker - selling broker reports the trade

There is both a buyer and a seller on each executed trade.... and there can never be a one sided trade.

That is it.......

[global nomad] 05/8/2019 18:26

but don't they do go through a market maker/broker...i don't buy shares from you and you don't sell to me -- the broker buys your shares and sells them to me, not all trades match up, so they have a pool and also have uncrossing / tidying up at the end of the day. I can still sell my shares if no one wants to buy them but the price will reduce to limit what the broker has on their books or such that they can sell later at a margin.

I have heard so often that each trade is both buy and sell but I don't think thats actually true even if things are happening in fractions of a second. The market exists to match buyers and sellers but is run by the intermediary like any form of market. The system is designed to match demand and supply automatically to speed the process and the spread allows for profit.

Anyway, we are finding hope and profit as and where we can in the face of bigger forces than we have any chance of influencing....maybe I am a bit of a grumpy nomad today....

[angel333] 05/8/2019 18:07

The reason they do not have a buy or sell stamp is simply every executed trade has a buyer and a seller......
They are in effect crosses.

[global nomad] 05/8/2019 17:48

Angel, apologies if my semantics went astray, i should know better. It's long been a bete noire of mine, and especially since everything went digital and online that the system still relies on identifying a buy or sell through its relationship to the mid point of the spread. It is deliberately obfuscating and maintained to help the market makers. There seems no reason technically why all trades don't have an associated buy or sell stamp attached.

[stevoc1964] 05/8/2019 17:40

Bidstack (@bidstack)05/08/2019, 17:36"Possible solutions that cater to both advertisers & audience could range from close influencer collaborations to in-game dynamic ads. A great piece, highlighting the importance of interacting with gamers in an authentic & unintrusive way gamingstreet.com/why-brands-sho... #bids #esportshttps://www.gamingstreet.com/why-brands-should-care-about-esports/

[angel333] 05/8/2019 17:18

Global Nomad
There is inaccurate trade reporting but not false reporting.....

Bids closed on the RSP as follows:-
28.73p bid in 25,000 shares
29.25p offered in 50,000 shares

All trades look like sellers as the bid and offer is below the mid price of the SEAQ bid and offer which was:-
28.5 - 30p

Any trades executed below 29.25 show as a sell
Any trades above 29.251 show as a buy

Hence the reports may well show incorrectly.

[stevoc1964] 05/8/2019 16:24

Shadow Trader (@shadowstocks)05/08/2019, 15:21#BIDS #Bidstack Great image given to me which details some of the 'Linkedin chatter' we've been referring to lately between Bidstack and EA/Fifa. At the very least Bidstack are actively pursuing EA which is exactly what we want them to do. EA own the NHL, Fifa, NBA, UFC series. pic.twitter.com/8PJOe3twYd

[moneygenxyz] 05/8/2019 14:39

Interesting that the Pubguard RNS strapline was tagged onto that one.

“This is just the Start.”

[stevoc1964] 05/8/2019 14:34

Bidstack (@bidstack)05/08/2019, 14:30The #FIFAeWorldCup took place this weekend with?? ??@MoAuba?? taking home the title? He walked away with $250k & the final was broadcast around the globe. It was interesting to see the growing involvement of football clubs & players like ??@wilfriedzaha??. This is just the start! #bids pic.twitter.com/hi7mHQew1B

[moneygenxyz] 05/8/2019 13:49

Scottman 25,000,000 per day which JD mentioned previously x 365.



Do bear in mind though that JD's numbers don't quite tie up however I'm putting more weighting on the Sports Interactive and Steam quoted figures.

"Around 150,000 people play Football Manager on a typical day, spending an average of four hours in the game per day. According to Bidstack, this generates around 25m potential impressions per day, giving the game an advertising inventory worth over £100m per year."

JD's 150,000 players x 4 hours vs my 984,000 plays x 1 hour.
What is probably happening here though is that I'm capturing average time of total plays per day whereas he is capturing total time per player per day. And also probably older figures (FM18).

Obviously heavily reliant on JD for 25,000,000 impressions figure but it feels about right - If I play FM I can play around 3 games an hour lasting 12 mins each.

So 36 impressions / 3 games = 12 impressions per game - 1 impression per min?

In summary I'm feeling very confident in the metrics he is espousing... certainly reconcilable and very achievable. One would also expect that 1 cent per impression figure to creep up here as it could be classed as premium advertising based on current research.

Not forgetting that there are still 6,000 players playing FM18 at the moment - That’s another £15m a year on top.

[scottman72] 05/8/2019 13:36

Not sure where the 9,125,000,000 impressions came from but either way, just confirmation of the potential revenue from FM alone.

So if BIDS achieves 1/10th of this, that's £2.5 per half year.

Anyone still thinking that BIDS isn't going to achieve H1 market expectation?

[moneygenxyz] 05/8/2019 13:18

More maths:

Each player plays for around 1 hour a day (273 days/ 250 hours)

If the average daily players for July was 41,000 at any given moment (984,000 plays per day [41k x24 hrs] remember 1 player can come back later etc) and they played on average 1 hour a day that's 35,424,000 impressions per day.

1 cent per impression = £283,000 per day in revenues (@1.25 USD FX)

x 365 days = £100m

Back to the magic 100 million.


So whatever the average play is on steamcharts x 24 hours x 1 hour playing x 36 impressions x 0.01 per impression gives you daily revenue of FM at 100% fill rate.

*Above is July’s run rate - Average over the year is around 36,000 players at any one time so circa £90m

[moneygenxyz] 05/8/2019 12:58

My bad - misread Miles' statement.

1,016,949 total players (600,000 in July / 59%)

9,125,000,000/
254,237,288 (1,016,949 players x 250 hours)
= 36 impressions per hour

[global nomad] 05/8/2019 12:52

a dummy trade shows that 28.6 is a buy price, so the buy/sell reporting as usual tell a false story of demand.