Bidstack Share Discussion Threads

[girdz] 25/7/2019 19:54

Spends an awful lot of time on this BB critiquing BIDS when not even a share holder. Get a life

[scottman72] 25/7/2019 19:54

SG,
I suggest you detail where anyone related to BIDS has stated that H1 will not be as high as previously expected. They have quite clearly stated that they are on target to meet market expectations. If H1 did not achieve what was being expected then that would be a false statement. As they have also stated that revenues will be H2 weighted this means that (as an absolute minimum) H1 expectations will be achieved and H2 will be greater than expected.

[2prsimo] 25/7/2019 19:38

So let's see now, he's tried the placing card first and now he's boring on about revenues (which everybody knows are 2nd-half weighted anyway). You can see his game folks, it's pathetically transparent. He wants in but he doesn't want to pay 29p!!

[superg1] 25/7/2019 19:37

Sorry Mcfly I should've read your reply first.

Yes I entirely agree the H1 will not be as high as they forecast and they said so in results.

So imo it's important to reiterate that fact so those that try to suggest otherwise don't influence others into thinking H1 is better than forecast.

Otherwise it develops into a greater number with false information being disappointed when the results come.

We all know many posters above a very short lifespan on some shares until they disappear and appear on the next pump, leaving genuine research to carry on, marked split means to me quite a bit less than the $1.75 mill as you suggest as low as $1 mill.

[scottman72] 25/7/2019 19:33

LOL.

We'll have to wait and see SG. I think you have a big surprise in store if that's how poor you believe BIDS is doing after everything that's been going on this year.

[superg1] 25/7/2019 19:23

Scott

You clearly haven’t been around the AIM long enough then.

If it was a positive point you can be absolutely sure they would have shouted it from the rooftops.


That is a poor H1 split all day long. They have clearly said H2 weighted.

I’ll read up on what I can.

[snoopy12] 25/7/2019 18:33

I think SG you will be pleasantly surprised. But after all it is the stock market. At the moment we are going by brokers forecast, but some juicy contracts which I am hoping for could change all that.

[mcfly79] 25/7/2019 18:22

superg,

Thanks for the reporting of the VRS event.

For Bidstack it has always been about the step change in the business once all of the elements for programmatic ad selling are in place. I believe this will be in late-Q3 and Q4.

Here is a link to the Bidstack broker note by Peterhouse which came out in Sep 2018:



As far as I’m aware these are the only forecasts that have been published.

For 2019 the revenue forecast is £5.9m with a H1/H2 split given as £1.75m/£4.1m.

As you say, we were told in the 2018 results that came out in April 2019 that ‘we expect that revenues in 2019 will be significantly second half weighted with perhaps a more marked split than previously anticipated’.

I take this to mean that the H1 results will be lower than the £1.75m Peterhouse were forecasting.

In the same results the company also said they were well placed to meet the full year 2019 expectations and the CEO has said this on several occasions since.

I’m forecasting £1-£1.5m in revenue for H1 and £4.5m+ revenue in H2.

What’s more important though is the run rate when the step change happens. The figures suggest that the annual run rate at the end of 2019 would need to be £10m-£15m to make the targets.

Of course this all hinges on your trust of the management to meet the market expectations like they’ve said they will.

[stoaty1] 25/7/2019 18:01

And Grid etc in H2

[scottman72] 25/7/2019 17:57

SG, not at all, in fact far from it.

A weighting seeing a more marked difference H2 means just that. A better than expected H1 does not mean that H2 will be a failure. It means that H2 will be even better than expected that the improvement in H1 revenue predicts. i.e. H1 may be higher due to dirt 2 etc, but H2 will now be even more better than expected, due to all the negotiations happening this year.

[superg1] 25/7/2019 17:42

Thanks guys much appreciated. I’ll have a read.

Scottman but your comment sets it up for a fall.

They clearly stated the weighting will see a more marked difference than anticipated on the split. Indicating to me a poor H1.

[moneygenxyz] 25/7/2019 17:26

Thanks chessmaster, certainly don’t think that £100m is this year’s runrate but a very good barometer for where this is heading and the exponential growth curves available. Notwithstanding, FM isn’t ‘mainstream217; yet.. when it’s on Stadia you’ll be looking at even bigger growth rates in that key driver. Was never sure why Asia 1,000,000 impressions per day was useful relative to the 25,000,000 impressions per day in total - maybe just highlighting opportunity in that region? Probably a key buy out region tbf..

I actually think we might only take 15% of the gross revenue p.a (as per advertising norms) although Gross margins are at 45% on the Peterhouse note so lots of factors still unclear.

We also won’t be filling that capacity yet but that’s what the DSPs are for.

We actually don’t want it to be too successful whilst we are signing up games... techies are extremely clever hence the need for speed... excuse the pun.

Genuinely very exciting either way.

[hazl] 25/7/2019 16:57

References for me above and anybody else of course.

[hazl] 25/7/2019 16:42

To be fair earnings might well be more important, than they were in tech stocks, as the wider environment becomes more threatening, so it has been a useful exercise over the last few days.

' A rate cut is priced into stocks. After the Fed meeting, investors may turn their attention back to company-specific fundamentals, and Goldman Sachs told its clients recently that earnings matter.'

barrons...

[chessmaster10] 25/7/2019 16:13

MoneyGenxyz, your maths does seem on the positive side of optimistic, but it may not be too far detached from reality.

I say that based on the 2018 results, which factored in FM2019 which launched in November I believe and was generating "approximately 1m impressions per day in Asia alone in December 2018"

1m x 31 (days in December) = 31,000,000
31m x 0.01 = $310,000
$310,000 = approx £248,000

Total revenue was £317k, so the £69k delta could have been from the rest of the year + impressions from other countries, if we assume that the bulk of the 2018 revenue was generated by FM2019 in the last month or 6 weeks of the year.

I think the 'Revenue per impression' is probably a bit lower that 0.01, but in ball park terms it doesn't seem a million miles off.


You can apply this to the H1 2019 forecast if we assume;

1m impressions per day x 181 days in H1 = 181m impressions
181m * 0.01 = $1,810,000
1810000 * 0.8 = £1,448,000

Not too far off the forecast £1.75m


If indeed the forecast is based on approx 1m impressions a day, and they're getting closer to 25m... the mind boggles!

[hazl] 25/7/2019 16:10

THANK YOU Scotsman that's an interesting point.

[scottman72] 25/7/2019 16:08

That's one of the reasons I'm expecting better revenue than that. The codemasters contract was signed at the start of December, so dirt rally 2 revenue wont be factored in. That's why I'm expecting £2.5m plus for H1 and more then £4m for H2.

[homebrewruss] 25/7/2019 14:12

You can see a snapshot of the Peterhouse broker note here with the full note on Research tree I think.


The broker note had £1.75m revenue for H1 and £4.10m for H2 with monthly profitability in October 2019.
This profitability is presumably pushed back a bit now given what we know about 2nd half weighting and the increased costs they now have since this broker note was released in September last year.

[affc21] 25/7/2019 14:03

Peterhouse Capital Research is the house broker.The below is from Value The Markets where the forecasts for 2019 it were reiterated.Dated 12 April 2019.Elsewhere, in its full-year results earlier this month, Bidstack said it plans to use its healthy cash balance (£2.1m as at 31 December vs 12-month administrative costs of c£1.3m) to build upon its 2018 revenues of c.£317,000 – slightly ahead of market expectations of £300,000. It is important to note that 2018 revenues were mostly generated after the RTO, aided by the launch of Football Manager 2019 in November. Management also reiterated its expectations of meeting revenue guidance for 2019 of £5,850,000, weighted to the second half – in keeping with the high growth nature of the business).hTTps://www.valuethemarkets.com/2019/04/12/we-aim-to-become-the-biggest-video-game-advertising-media-owner-in-the-world-bidstacks-ceo-james-draper-discusses-his-firms-once-in-a-lifetime-op/

[hazl] 25/7/2019 13:53

If they have already got interest from people with powerful history.....which they have....then that it is far more important than people realise.

[hazl] 25/7/2019 13:50

Accountants deal with the past .

Second half far more important....shares are about the future.

Outlook is always more important than past results.