Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 05/7/2016 21:16

eezaJust read the press.

[chillpill] 05/7/2016 20:49

Sterling is now a 3rd world currency. Which institutions want to hold 3rd world assets?

[dlku] 05/7/2016 20:14

M&G and Aviva suspend property trusts as Brexit risks crystallise - as it happened

Pound plunges to new 31-year low as property funds refuse to let investors withdraw money after a rush of post-Brexit redemption requests

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Pound crashes to $1.3000
M&G freezes fund
Aviva suspends property redemptions

[badtime] 05/7/2016 20:12

Rubberbullets..plucking figures out of thin air...I see you've been spouting your tripe on other threads...filtered

[eeza] 05/7/2016 19:34

Monty scaremongering, as usual - until he goes long.

[montyhedge] 05/7/2016 17:55

Went to Waterloo on the train the other day. London looks like a building site. 2 bed, 2 bath flats everywhere. Oversupply the crash as just started.

[rubberbullets] 05/7/2016 16:31

Carney says his fears begin to cryatallise

Hard hats men

10 pounds cominh

[jrphoenixw2] 05/7/2016 15:25

The ones on the fire are looking pretty toasty today. But there might be a point I'll buy a top-up... if I can still afford to of course ;)

[cancun tango] 05/7/2016 15:14

jrp

How are your chestnuts mate?

Lol.

[cancun tango] 05/7/2016 12:42

Following yesterday's weak construction data, Carney has said that the sector was already slowing "to put it mildly" before the referendum.

He said the slowdown in construction looks set to continue post-Brexit

[r ball] 05/7/2016 11:18

uncertainty.

I hope it's Theresa May taking us forward,

[jrphoenixw2] 05/7/2016 10:18

We're six months into a pre-announced 6-year div programme. When it was announced the duo that founded/built BKG will have taken into account the potential consequences of BREXIT, it was a 'known/unknown' and yet still they announced the programme.
Of course that doesn't mean the share px is immune to volatility and sector-rotation in the meanwhile. On a FY of c8.5% it could prove a rich picking for the bold.

[r ball] 05/7/2016 09:24

dividend safe???

[montyhedge] 04/7/2016 19:37

More bad news tomorrow on property, Standard Life Property Fund suspend redemptions after a rush to redeem after Brexit result.

[rubberbullets] 04/7/2016 15:48

MARKETSUK construction output falls at fastest pace since ’09 – Markit
6 hours ago
URL
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Britain’s construction industry suffered its worst performance in June for seven years and has slumped into contraction territory, a closely-watched survey of activity has suggested, as the sector was rocked by uncertainty over the outcome of the EU membership referendum.

The UK construction purchasing managers’ index dropped to 46 for June from 51.2 the previous month – economists had expected it to fall to 50.7. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction. Just over 80 per cent of responses were received before the result of the referendum, writes Nathalie Thomas.

The fall in the PMI was triggered by a steep decline in residential building work while the commercial sector was also hit. The result is the worst PMI reading since June 2009 and the first time the index has fallen below the crucial 50 mark since April 2013.

[tjbird] 04/7/2016 12:24

Construction PMI hits seven-year low


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1


The month of the EU referendum saw the UK construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dive into negative territory for the first time in more than three years.

The graph is heading in the wrong direction...
Above: The graph is heading in the wrong direction...

At 46.0 in June 2016, down from 51.2 in May, the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK construction PMI pointed to the weakest overall performance for exactly seven years.

Any PMI score above 50 indicates growth, and the higher the score the greater the growth; a score below 50 means contraction.

With 80% of survey responses received before the referendum result was announced on 24th June, the downturn in business activity was generally linked to uncertainty in the run-up to the big vote, rather than a response to the Leave outcome.

Residential construction was the worst performing sub-category of activity, with activity falling at the fastest pace since December 2012. Civil engineering activity remained broadly stable in June, while commercial building work saw a sharp loss of momentum and posted one of its weakest readings for six-and-a-half years.

[betelgeuse1] 04/7/2016 08:40

ALD on a screamer, Yes!

Numis say this

Following better than expected results for 2015 we are upgrading our EPS estimate for this year by 5% to 26.9p from 25.7p. The upgrade would have been more but for adjustments to the number of shares in issue and the group tax charge. As a result of these our EPS estimate for next year falls 2% to 32.0p from 32.7p. Excluding the impact of shares and tax our 2017 estimates would have increased modestly.

So EPS of 26.9p this year and 32.7p next year

PER of 3.5

GONNA DOUBLE. IM IN :P

[betelgeuse1] 04/7/2016 08:21

ALD on a screamer, Yes!

Numis say this

Following better than expected results for 2015 we are upgrading our EPS estimate for this year by 5% to 26.9p from 25.7p. The upgrade would have been more but for adjustments to the number of shares in issue and the group tax charge. As a result of these our EPS estimate for next year falls 2% to 32.0p from 32.7p. Excluding the impact of shares and tax our 2017 estimates would have increased modestly.

So EPS of 26.9p this year and 32.7p next year

PER of 3.5

GONNA DOUBLE. IM IN :P

[jrphoenixw2] 02/7/2016 09:13

The bank in question is still offering mortgages on London property.
hxxp://www.uob.com.sg/personal/loans/property/international_home_loans.html

Private Eye refer to The Guardian as 'The Grauniad', because they have a habit of getting even the basics wrong.

[jrphoenixw2] 01/7/2016 16:12

I have Odey's list of trades for 2016. Plus, opening position then to now. Been too busy to crank his P+L from it. If anyone else fancies a go let me know and I'll try and post the base data.

[jrphoenixw2] 01/7/2016 16:09

Odey's personal trading screens are saying he had a very expensive day :) [circa £2.5mm on the BKG position, today/intra-day]
As for my earlier thought of topping-up into the close today, ah well, coulda/woulda/shoulda bitten the bullet this morning. I console myself with a heads or tails works either way... +keep the powder dry for another day. After all this is just chapter-1 of the BREXIT saga...

[r ball] 01/7/2016 15:52

What does Bloomberg say???

[jrphoenixw2] 01/7/2016 12:30

Biggest aggregate net reported short @5.66% was in the first week of April at around 3300. Today that short has halved, 2.72% @ 2540, 23% off 3300.

Odey's last reported purchase was on 25th April at c3100. It'd be curious if he's selling now at 2540p. 20%/+ less than he paid for them.

Would be interesting to do a rough P+L on his YTD reported trades, and see how he's doing :)

[abarclay] 01/7/2016 11:20

Not long before Odey becomes an iceberg seller , killing this to new lows imho