Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[r ball] 10/4/2016 20:38

given that the dividend has been rebased to £2 per year DCF Valuation gives higher implied value

[barnesian] 10/4/2016 16:55

if you assume that dividends are maintained at £1 a year for six years and the share price in 6 years time is unchanged at say £32, then discounting at say 7% a year gives a NPV of £24.

A dividend of £1 forever at 7% discount rate gives a NPV of £14.

All very theoretical.

[r ball] 10/4/2016 16:13

Conversely a lot of investment trusts trade at a discount to NAV.

[eeza] 10/4/2016 09:27

Yes I agree with R Ball. That is where research & understanding a Co is paramount.
I was just giving the 'dry', official, figures.

[philo124] 10/4/2016 08:50

On the Ball, agreed.

[r ball] 10/4/2016 06:34

but this ignores the inherent profit in undeveloped plots, mgt skill, access to finance, DCF of dividend policy etc etc. how about analysis of profitability based on a cooling London market and refocus on family homes which is what this will be in 10 years time.

[garycook] 10/4/2016 03:56

eeza,Thanks

[eeza] 09/4/2016 13:27

My figures incorporating the interims are

Basic NAV = 1339.5p; Basic NTAV = 1326.9p; Based on wt av # shares 136.5m

Diluted NAV = 1171.3p; Diluted NTAV = 1160.3p; Based on wt av # shares 156.1m
(assuming full conversion of LTIP share options of 19.6m shares)

Someone else may like to verify (or otherwise) my figures.

[eeza] 09/4/2016 12:22

@garycook

If you click on 'Financial Tab' above, at very top centre, (or Right click to open in new window) you will find all the info you need.

NAV is given as 1184.68p and NTAV as 1172.24p. But these figures aren't TTM (trailing 12 mths) as they will be based on the last AR of April 2015.

To get the ttm NAV you will have to incorporate the relevant interim results data.

[garycook] 08/4/2016 10:13

Sounds very low at 1161 !!! Thanks for looking

[jrphoenixw2] 08/4/2016 08:14

@GaryC

I skimmed the 2015 Annual Report (Consolidated Statement of Financial Position) but couldn't spot it...
hxxp://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/investor-information/latest-annual-report

Morningstar has it at 1161.28p a/o year end 2015
hxxp://tools.morningstar.co.uk > BKG stock > Financials and Ratios > Balance Sheet

[montyhedge] 08/4/2016 07:43

Best short in the market, London property market on the edge.

[garycook] 08/4/2016 01:46

Anyone know the current NAV on BKG ?

[ny boy] 07/4/2016 17:06

Panama papers is the nail in the coffin or massive bubble, the prime market was already tipping over, these revelations will kill prime London which is now has a huge glut of unsold and hugely over priced stock.

Not surprised shorters have started to nibble here, price target over 12/18 months 2000p

[cancun tango] 07/4/2016 14:26

Also from yesterday's Standard:

[cancun tango] 07/4/2016 08:51

Housing in London has become a political hot potato. Front page on yesterday's Standard...

[nehpets81] 30/3/2016 14:09

That short tracker website seems to suggest that HMV is the ninth most shorted stock on the market!

[r ball] 25/3/2016 21:17

the best way to get a full picture is through a Bloomberg terminal. then again it's £10k per year subscription. in the absence of this I would stop guessing and rely on fundental analysis.

[drradcliffe] 25/3/2016 15:11

I don't if you know about this site. It's quite interesting:



It gives a breakdown of UK stocks being shorted. It's only as good as the information disclosed of course.

[jrphoenixw2] 25/3/2016 14:37

Hmm interesting, maybe things will settle after BREXIT (the market naturally wanting certainty vs unknown blah blah).

The TR-1 holding notifications can confuse me. I've been watching them in recent weeks trying to gauge any direction of sentiment @ the hedge funds etc. They're usually pretty straight-forward to understand but recent BKG ones have left me confused. Take the Black Rock purchase on Wednesday (per above)...


The entry 'An acquisition or sale... ... -> S'. A sale right, surely? I've seen this a few times recently on BKG and also LRE, where the TR-1s suggest the opposite of what's actually happened.

If anyone can see what I'm apparently missing I'd love to hear it.

Odey's big shorts in BKG and LRE... hence they're rather Odey-ous for me right now...

[drradcliffe] 25/3/2016 13:52

I think Black Rock are going long. They increased their holding on Wednesday, to over 5%. Odey Asset Management have a short on 1.2% of the stock at the moment. Odey have much large shorts on INTU Properties (shopping centre developments in the UK, and some in Spain), Lancashire Holdings, Ashmore Group and Tullow Oil. Nothing disclosed on any of the other house builders.

[bluemango] 25/3/2016 12:55

BKG picked on because of its focus on the higher value homes located in London and home counties, most vulnerable to wealthy but nervous foreign buyers spooked by prospect of Brexit. Not saying they're right, just explaining the likely rationale.

[dr_smith] 25/3/2016 11:53

I ask myself the same question jrp as houses aren't exported and people need somewhere to live regardless of brexit outcome.
Random thoughts:
1) Brexit = market nervousness and housing sector usually gets caught up in sentiment even if not directly affected.
2) Overseas investors in UK may be deterred one way or another, typically affecting cream of London market.
3) If Head offices for multinationals relocate, that creates ripples for employees and their housing, be it rented or owned.

IMO DYOR :-)

None of that answers why BKG should be picked upon amongst the 100/350 FTSE co's.

I am personally holding BKG and looking to increase.