Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[r ball] 15/2/2016 08:26

sorry, my mistake this is an EGM. Not sure if any market sentsitive info would be released. Probably not.

[luffness] 12/2/2016 18:51

There are currently plans for 700,000 new homes in London by 2030 - which is somewhat the the 900,000 that will actually be needed so not sure that the goose is dead yet

[montyhedge] 12/2/2016 16:51

It's over for house builders in London.Osborne has killed the golden goose.

[barnesian] 12/2/2016 16:34

Good point

[r ball] 12/2/2016 16:10

not necessarily. Only if they were uncovered shorts. Which is dangerous.

I suspect the short position has reduced on the run up to Tuesday's AGM statement. As I would not want to be exposed at a time of major news announcement.

[barnesian] 12/2/2016 13:10

Four days ago, the FT reported:

"A small group of funds are targeting the shares of Berkeley Group, the main listed proxy for new high-end London property, amid signs that Asian and Russian buyers are deserting the market.

Odey Asset Management, BlueMountain Capital Management and Anchorage Capital took short positions against the FTSE 100 builder in January, worth 2.2 per cent of its share capital, according to data disclosed to the Financial Conduct Authority."

To sell 2.2% of the share capital is a lot, particularly if you are shorting i.e. don't actually own the shares, and I think explains the large drop in share price.

However, shorters have to buy back in again at some point to cover their position so there are funds looking to buy 2.2% of the share capital lurking in the wings.

[copestake] 10/2/2016 15:56

Money isn't being lent out at high multiples though. I've had difficulty getting one at x3 with a near perfect credit record and no debt. They aren't just handing money out like they did in 2008.

[barnesian] 10/2/2016 10:31

roddiemac

You might have already missed the bottom for BKG.

It depends on your time scale and where you park your cash in the meantime.

[sogoesit] 10/2/2016 10:17

you're in the wrong market, monty, you should lower your sights a bit!
so the guy reduced his profit by £1m and still made £5.5m... big deal!

[roddiemac2] 10/2/2016 10:01

Barnesian,

As you say, the yield looks safe, and so should underpin the share price. I sold all my shares in builders and builders` merchants several weeks ago. I see no hurry to buy back in.

[roddiemac2] 10/2/2016 09:51

tintin,

Money is being lent to buyers at ridiculous multiples of the buyers` earnings. If sensible criteria were applied to new mortgages the number of actual buyers would be reduced . Irresponsible lending has created a bubble. The property market is a rigged deck.

[barnesian] 09/2/2016 20:20

The BKG Board is highly motivated by bonuses to maintain the current dividend policy. The company has a very conservative balance sheet with excellent forward visibility of cash flow so they can do this for a few years at least.

With a safe 6% yield, it is an attractive haven for footloose cash.

Having said all that, the share price is clearly suffering from nervousness about the London housing market.

I see this as an opportunity not a problem for investors as long as you are not a forced seller at these prices.

[montyhedge] 09/2/2016 19:15

The brown stuff about to hit the fan in luxury house prices London and Surrey. House near me reduced £1m to £7.5m by a house builder who never reduces because it devalues the brand. I can see it coming, crash.

[tintin82] 09/2/2016 17:53

'Increasingly likely property prices will dive' And there was me thinking we have a housing shortage. Simple supply and demand here!

[sogoesit] 09/2/2016 16:59

The perennial jitters about the London Property market; think about the dividend.
Anecdote:
- went to a property development yesterday which opened for sale on Friday 04/02. All sold except 3 out of 18. No price discounts.
- was then referred to another which had been on the market for a week.. was also 80% sold out.
Good luck if you want cheap property in and around London!
Maybe that is the top of the market? Just guessing.
Then again, maybe not. Just guessing.
CAGR over 20 years in SW London: 10%

[copestake] 09/2/2016 14:42

Regret buying in here ffs. Another long termer.

[roddiemac2] 09/2/2016 10:04

deadly,

You are right , but only if property prices don`t dive: increasingly likely that they do.

[deadly] 09/2/2016 08:58

The clever money is already waiting to get back in.

[roddiemac2] 08/2/2016 10:17

The truth is that property in the UK has been in bubble territory for some time. We have seen it all before . the clever money is already out.

[montyhedge] 28/1/2016 14:41

19% sale slump in London property according to Bloomberg.Stamp duty to blame.

[sogoesit] 21/1/2016 18:28

Pay day tomorrow £1

Chart looks a bit nasty (I added recently).... hmm

[ny boy] 21/1/2016 11:27

Well done Tim


But the top in here, rolling over from the highs

[this_is_me] 14/1/2016 14:48

I am very happy that the share price is around 3 times what I paid in 2012. It still looks like a good investment at the current price.