Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[jrphoenixw2] 25/3/2016 11:27

What do you think the shorts are banking on?
Stamp Duty hitting the higher end of the market, plus lower volumes due to and prior to the BREXIT vote? Don't know, just thinking aloud...

Holding big shorts like that costs a lot of money, so they must have high-hopes of some big tangible negatives crystallising this year. And if so, is that backed up with read-across [in shorts] vs other similar housebuilders?

[garycook] 25/3/2016 11:23

Longer term target £40 plus !!!

[drradcliffe] 25/3/2016 11:02

Very plausible.

[bluemango] 25/3/2016 10:10

My thoughts fwiw are that hedge funds shorting this are betting on the Leave campaign gaining some momentum in the lead up to June referendum. They may be planning to close before the vote takes place, perhaps around May/early June knowing that fear of the unknown will probably prevail in the end.

I like Berkeley as an investment and may look to buy if there is clear, substantial evidence that shorts are closing, possibly at below 30 by then. If in the process I miss the boat, then so be it, but am wary of jumping in while they're so clearly active and the shares so volatile.

[bluemango] 25/3/2016 09:32

Carve Capital have decreased their short position, but Millennium and Odey both increased theirs.

Highest yet disclosed aggregate short position.

[campervan1] 25/3/2016 07:30

Well I hope so. Missed the boat below 30 and now waiting for a pull back.

[garycook] 25/3/2016 02:57

Hope not,unless Odey shorted around £35/36

[wookie77] 24/3/2016 13:59

Odeye bet here will come good.

[garycook] 22/3/2016 13:14

See Odey has made 2 bad decisions this year,and lost a shed load of money !!!

[bluemango] 22/3/2016 09:55

Anchorage Capital report first increase (on 17th) in their Berkeley short position since January.

[barnesian] 18/3/2016 10:04

I have carefully read this morning's announcement including between the lines.

Positive: "The London housing market has remained stable over the period and Berkeley is seeing good underlying demand for its properties"

Positive: "Berkeley remains on course to deliver GBP2 billion of pre-tax profit in aggregate over the three years culminating in 2017/18"

So far so good. But..

Negative: "For Berkeley, reservations are approximately 4% lower than in 2014/15.."

Negative: "Transaction levels at the upper end of the housing market have been affected by the significant increase in transaction taxes over the last 18 months which will have consequential effects on .. the supply of new homes."

Negative: "Since the half year, we have sold 62 properties at prices over GBP2 million - a similar number to the same period in 2014/15, when the market slowed in the run-up to the General Election."

Mmm.

[jrphoenixw2] 18/3/2016 09:19

Thanks for that link. Here is another article from the FT (8-Feb) that gives you some of the rationale of the bigger players currently shorting the stock:
'Hedge funds short London luxury homes'

[cancun tango] 18/3/2016 08:47

Shorts now over 5%, Odey putting the boot in.

[r ball] 18/3/2016 07:05

top end of expectations. £3m+ slowing but same level as 2014/15. transaction tax cost high (annual tax astoundingly low)....

[beergut] 17/3/2016 18:04

As HSBC is Long Mortgages how can they go short Berkeley Group?

[jrphoenixw2] 17/3/2016 11:27

@Barnesian.
Ah yes, the IMS tomorrow, hence some uncertainty creeping in today no doubt.

Here is a further illustration of how ratings have to be taken with a large pinch of salt - 'HSBC starts 10 UK housebuilders at 'buy''
[Cowboy accent] Well, whadya know! [/CA]

[barnesian] 17/3/2016 11:07

An Interim Management Statement will be issued tomorrow.

Will it be positive and reassuring for the long term, or will it refer to recent short term weakness in demand and pricing?

Possibly both. How will the market react?

[r ball] 17/3/2016 10:32

broker targets should be treated with caution.

They tend to be on the optimistic side but there was a time when BKG traded above the target - about 4 years ago from memory.

You need to read between the lines and see the trend in the forecast target not the absolute figure.

Because HSBC have initiated coverage they are in effect saying - please ignore everything which we said in the past because it was probably all wrong.

[bruceylegs] 17/3/2016 08:56

HSBC initiates coverage with a Buy and a target price of 4290p.

[jrphoenixw2] 12/3/2016 10:35

6.7%/pa (a/o today) 'declared' for 6 years. Not many companies have the balls to nail their colours to the mast in quite that fashion.

[garycook] 10/3/2016 03:22

campervan1,You are spot on and correct.

[campervan1] 09/3/2016 18:47

This one just caught my eye. Am I missing something or is this just an ideal income stock? Currently 6.68% for the next 6 years (at 200p per year).