Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[r ball] 28/6/2016 18:38

What do you reckon to BKG just sitting on the land and morphing into a yield stock.

If EU suffers downturn/uncertainty this could be an OK stock.

[essentialinvestor] 28/6/2016 12:05

NY, you saw this in advance, so good call.
£12 would seem very low to me, but aware you are familiar with this market.

[ny boy] 28/6/2016 11:30

Real selling hasn't started yet, looking for 1200p once the housing slump is in its second/third year.

[jrphoenixw2] 28/6/2016 10:58

The overseas reaction I've seen (amongst people I've discussed such matters with for years) is one of anger; because it's hit their markets, their investments and pensions.
But as I suggested to them, when we last had a vote [1970s] we voted to join a trade-block of 9 countries. We did not vote to join a superstate ruled by Germany and France. If we'd this week voted to leave what we originally joined it would have had minimal impact, and very little outside the EU. So the fact it's hitting Asia/AU-NZ etc is because the Brits were sold a lie in the 70s. I.e. 'point the finger at the EU politicians for creating this monster, not the British citizens for fending it off. Wouldn't you have done the same?'.

You mention a buyback programme; is this published? Are there set purchase dates/sums, or is it ad hoc? If it's ad hoc is it reasonable to think they buy when they see value?

[chillpill] 28/6/2016 10:31

I'm not saying that at all. The British economy at large is on a knife edge right now and no one knows what the outcome will be. BKG has surplus funds on its balance sheet and the share buyback is part of a much larger buyback programme.
On the onehand some foreign investors will be not be prepared to take a risk in buying London property whilst others will be looking for distressed bargains.
I know the overseas observations of what is going on is one of shock. London is no longer the safe haven it was considered to be so that premium has been lost overnight.

[jrphoenixw2] 28/6/2016 10:16

.... so you're saying the directors were wilfully negligent in making the purchase for Treasury?

[chillpill] 28/6/2016 10:07

The Pidge is a legend. It was only last year he gave a veiled warning on the state of the market.
What was the purchase as a percentage of his net worth? Next to nothing. It was just to create a small amount of confidence in a fragile market.

He knows at this point of time the property market is about trying to establish some confidence.

[jrphoenixw2] 28/6/2016 09:57

Isn't that, and as often happens more, already priced in? Or is Pidgely a mug? :)

p.s. Interesting to see Redrow issue a Trading Statement this morning at the top end of expectations.

[chillpill] 28/6/2016 09:31

The problem is around 7000 luxury Central London flats were sold in 2015.There are 20,000 being built as we speak so unless foreign investors are prepared to take a punt on the BREXIT factor then there are a lot of unaffordable luxury properties to hit the market that Joe Bloggs can't afford.

[jrphoenixw2] 28/6/2016 09:10

Couple of RNS's this morning...
-----------
LRE - Treasury dept purchase this morning of 886,833 shares
Highest price paid per share: 2348 pence
Lowest price paid per share: 2180 pence
Volume weighted average price paid per share: 2262.4261 pence

------------
and
------------
Pidgely bought 35k shares to go into his SIPP. [Avg px 22.69]
A. N. Other director picked up 3k for his wife [Avg px 22.40]

[eeza] 27/6/2016 16:09

monty's gone short.

of a brain cell or two.

[montyhedge] 27/6/2016 15:39

Odey made a killing I see Black Friday coming.Remember last time Dow fell 20% in a day in 2008.

[jrphoenixw2] 27/6/2016 15:07

@ CT, you know what 'maybe' means it seems :)

But my point stands, Director Deals at times of panic are often worth taking note of, after all the directors are closer to the present truth and likely near-future than anyone else.
Property sector directors are apparently seeing value to put their own money down, that's net take-home pay incremental to the stocks and options they receive via their remuneration. When you see multiple DDs in one stock, or multiple across a sector at the same time it merits attention. I thought this was common knowledge.

[mister md] 27/6/2016 14:28

nice one Garycook - you have to take advantage of some of these opportunities

[garycook] 27/6/2016 14:26

Own BKG,and purchased TW.also IRV,ITV,LGEN,LLOY,SSE,and TALK.

[cancun tango] 27/6/2016 14:24

jrphoenixw2 26 Jun'16 - 11:17 - 1546 of 1557 4 0


*Maybe* that suggests a broader industry view that the sector has been oversold...

Or *Maybe* not. Lol

[mister md] 27/6/2016 14:16

BKG,GFRD,BWNG,FOXT,AV. are a few I'm looking to take initial stake in + PDG

[garycook] 27/6/2016 14:13

Mister MD,What are you casting your eye over or buying ?

[ny boy] 27/6/2016 10:27

If Sterling slumps to 12000-12500 area against $ I think you will see some cash rich foreign players buying up selective prime London assets. So far today, we are just re-testing Friday's low 13228, if that goes quick move lower.

[ny boy] 27/6/2016 10:23

2285p was the Jan 2015 low, if these close below that, watch out trap door events coming up.

[montyhedge] 27/6/2016 10:13

House of cards in London, then filtered down to south east property.

[ny boy] 27/6/2016 09:42

Quite a few deals were subject to the referendum result, so have either pulled out and the deal has collapsed or priced hammered lower...understandably. There is no rush to buy over-valued property, you can walk into many developments and can get a substantial discount to ask price if you are cash ready and can exchange fast.

You can see huge pain ahead in vastly over developed areas with blocks and blocks of supposedly luxury flats..ie. Vauxhall/Battersea riverside areas.

[ny boy] 27/6/2016 09:35

NY Boy - 27 Dec 2015 - 00:16:31 - 1359 of 1549
Topping out, be patient bears, soon be time to feast next year, way over valued, should be trading 50% lower. Big feast next year and into 2017




Patience pays off, the property market bubble burst a while back, nothing in prime central London has really sold for ages, the rest of London and other over heated areas will follow, bubbles usually start and finish in prime central London.