Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[dr_smith] 21/12/2015 12:23

Bubble? Demand is very real. NY Boy comments without substantiation and IMV insincere motives, so filtered.

[ny boy] 21/12/2015 11:48

Higher they go the bigger the collapse uk property market is in bubble territory, just need to be patient before lumping on the shorts.

Once interest rates rise and rise they will the market will implode.

Look to short £40/45 area.

[r ball] 21/12/2015 10:17

£45 target May 2015

[topicel] 21/12/2015 09:55

Whatever the truth, the ex-divi sellers seem to now be buying back in based on the exceptionally positive forward-looking statements from our CEO and Chairman. Always a good time to buy these little crackers when the market is snoozing over the festive period. Just a few a day and when everyone returns it will be back at pre-ex-dividend levels.

The interest rate decision and London property price bubble still expanding are both good under-pins here.

Topicel

[jonox] 18/12/2015 10:20

No error, the date quoted in the statement was the 'record date', not the ex-div date.
To be on the shareholders register on 18 December, you would have to have bought shares no later than the close on 16 December (because of settlement rules).
Hence ex-dividend date 17 December.

[amencorner] 18/12/2015 09:47

Copestake; to be fair I did see that but it's an error I believe as Ex-div date was defo 17/12/15.

[copestake] 18/12/2015 08:57

Taken from the interim statement."In light of this, the Board has declared a further interim dividend of 100 pence per share (GBP136.5 million), payable on 22 January 2016 to shareholders on the register on 18 December 2015."

[dr_smith] 18/12/2015 08:31

Re ex div date.
It is missing from LSE diary, D.Look has 17/12/15, share price drop implies 17/12/15 and BKG investor centre doesn't mention it:
hxxp://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/investor-information/financial-diary

[amencorner] 18/12/2015 06:32

Copestake:I normally rely on Sharescope and Investegate and they both have the ex-dividend date as 17/12/15

hxxp://www.upcomingdividends.co.uk/ex-dividend-date-search.py?searchTerm=bkg

[r ball] 17/12/2015 19:47

Consistently valued in excess of net asset value.

[barnesian] 17/12/2015 19:03

Thanks. That explains the initial 90p drop.

[r ball] 17/12/2015 18:59

Ex div. today

[r ball] 16/12/2015 08:33

what year?

[leedsu36] 16/12/2015 03:19

Very timely entry of mine on 10th Nov,was always expecting good results.

[blunderbuss] 06/12/2015 14:15

Mmmmm, Questor certainly got that one badly wrong

[dan_the_epic] 05/12/2015 09:13

Yeah or you just go on FT Alphaville where these notes are already published, word for word every day. As ex Barclays and shore capital, how comes you have access to Davy (tiny cap tinbox) and Deutsche Bank? Or did you just twig them from FT Alphaville.

[sogoesit] 05/12/2015 05:52

Very generous of you Sniper, thank you.

But, just a general word of caution on "analysis", beware. As demonstrated by Questor's advice in the Daily Telegraph on 28 November to Sell BKG based on the London "property bubble" and "risky income" such analysis can prove to be absolute rubbish.
I would rather trust an accountant than an "analyst"!
DYOR is the watchphrase!

[market sniper1] 04/12/2015 21:25

No probs fenners66

If you guys need future broker notes ...........on any stock just look out for me on the board and Ill do my best. Ex Barclays Cap and Shore Cap,.......accountant not analyst. Cant get hold of them all.

But good %.

cheers.

[fenners66] 04/12/2015 21:19

Thank you from me too.

[market sniper1] 04/12/2015 16:51

No probs, welcome.

[doe808] 04/12/2015 16:34

Great thanks

[market sniper1] 04/12/2015 16:14

BKG Berkley Group

Here we are.......

Deutsche Bank

With H1 16 PBT just over half of FY 16 ests, management reiterating FY16-18
PBT guidance and robust forward sales we see little to move consensus in
today’s results. The increased dividend will therefore take centre stage, and
while a 6% dividend yield will prove difficult to ignore, those wary of the
London market may still remain cautious of the stock. HOLD.
1) Dividend programme enhanced. Berkeley has updated its long term dividend
programme, upping the cash returns to shareholders from £13 to be returned
from 2011-2021 (with £4.34 already returned) to £16.34 over the same period.
This implies £2/share dividend pa will be paid from Sep 2016-21, rather than
144p previously indicated. That implies the stock yields approx 6% (which in a
FTSE100 context puts it in the top 10). However this remains only just ahead of
the 180p dividend the company annualized last year. Our forecasts at this time
(which include the 144p dividend), has the company sitting on approx £1bn of
cash by YE 2021 (after the dividend that would be payable for that year). The
updated dividend programme will pay out an additional £0.5bn, which suggests
a further 65p per year dividend could be paid (ie a further 2%). 2) H1 16 results,
ahead of DB but in line with FY 16 ests. Berkeley has reported H1 16 PBT of
£242.3m (excluding ground rent sales), this equates to 53% of our FY 16
expectations. However this result was driven by substantially higher
completions, lower selling price, and higher EBIT margins driving better revenues
and EBIT, and much lower profit from associates. The group reported net cash of
£263m (against our expectation of £50m). Management has reiterated its target
of 2016-18 PBT of £2bn. 3) Is there enough reassurance on the London market?
Within the statement Berkeley reports ‘good underlying demand in a stable
operating environment’ with forward sales of £3.1bn (up from £2.959m at FY 15
results). However further questions will need to be asked on the Chairman’s
view of the Autumn statement: ‘concerned that the continued change to
property taxation may well result in unintended consequences’

Davy

Berkeley’s previous dividend return plan would have likely led
to a large build-up of cash on its balance sheet and the
expansion of the plan will go some way to addressing this. The
additional £500m to be paid in the next six years will increase
the dividend yield to close to 6%.

Berkeley Group has released (December 4 th ) H1 results to end-October which were
broadly in line with expectations. Revenue from operations increased by c.18%
compared to H1 2014/15, with volumes increasing from 1,372 to 2,091, partially offset
by lower mix in ASP, which fell from £649,000 to £506,000.
Operating profit fell by c.3% from £299.6m to £290.7m. Within this, there was an
exceptional profit made from the sale of ground rent assets which generated £51m of
profit. In the same period last year, there was an £85.1m profit on this. Stripping this
out, the operating profit from operations was £239.7m, up c.12% on the £214.5m
generated in H1 last year.

Berkeley has observed a stable operating environment over the first six months of the
year, seeing sales prices increase in line with the wider market. Cash due on forward
sales over the next three years has increased to £3,096m from £2,959m.

The company has expanded its Capital Return Plan which had originally been expected to
deliver £13.00 per share in dividends before September 2021. This has been increased to
£16.34, representing a further £500m of distributions. This leaves £12 remaining to be
paid over the period, and the company expects a flat dividend over this horizon,
suggesting a payment of £2.00 per share each year until 2021. This represents a dividend
yield of just under 6% based on last night’s closing price.

[doe808] 04/12/2015 15:55

Anything welcome. thanks