Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[r ball] 08/7/2015 15:40

no impact on QED - another london developer.

[barnesian] 08/7/2015 15:37

I agree. It's an over reaction.

[chinese investor] 08/7/2015 12:53

Chancellor is being hard on Non Doms !

[dr_smith] 01/7/2015 12:56

Call it a Greek tragedy.
With institutions selling then buying back on FTSE don't be too hard on yourself.

[philo124] 01/7/2015 12:09

My mistake to sell.

[dr_smith] 30/6/2015 12:01

IMV any co sells products for cost plus profit margin.
This sector sells stuff for cost plus profit margin plus cap gain from project start.
Typical reports on property sector are for prices to gain at greater or lesser rate (not lower). Even if annual cap gain is lower, 'off the boil' it is still a cap gain and a bonus to normal mark up.
Few other sectors can offer that, though you could say same about gold/oil but they have many other risks....IMO

[philo124] 30/6/2015 10:49

Yes, it was tough call to sell even with a 50% profit and I did think about it for quite a while.
fwiw I have been told that London property is coming off the boil.

[barnesian] 30/6/2015 09:53

Dr Smith --My reasoning too. BKG is holding up reasonably well compared with the market as whole. And there is another nice dividend coming up.

[dr_smith] 30/6/2015 09:25

BKG is on high with Grexit casting shadow, so asked myself 'should I sell whilst peaking' a few days ago.
-Housing sector not to my knowledge directly affected by Grexit possibility - conversely, there could even be Greek property owners (inc non-Greeks) selling up and buying London based property, but don't hold your breath!
-If sell and wish to re-invest,few other options outside housing sector with same forward visibility and low risk.
-If hoping to buy back on dip, the chance is less than 50% as EPS is still proportionate and justifying the higher share price
-Switching carries a 1%+ cost, so personally I'm 'sticking'
All IMO for my medium/long term strategy.

[philo124] 30/6/2015 08:50

Sold out for now.

[r ball] 22/6/2015 21:34

Might take a closer look. Apart from bkg my portfolio is treading water. Could be time to realise a loss somewhere and invest in something better. Thanks for the info and all the best.

[rcturner2] 22/6/2015 20:36

Not especially, CDI is a private equity outfit with 5 stakes, one of which is in an oil services company. The other 4 are all doing well according to the latest trading update. There is a recent director purchase at a higher price and even if you mark the stake in the oil services business to zero, you are still at a huge discount to the other 4 businesses. So effectively a free play on the oil service company.

[r ball] 22/6/2015 20:15

CDI a leveraged oil play?

[redips2] 22/6/2015 14:22

I agree ......

[r ball] 20/6/2015 16:30

No reason to sell.

[rcturner2] 19/6/2015 16:01

Decided to take profits today, good luck all who remain. Happy with the run from £25 in short order. Taken a gamble elsewhere (CDI).

[arcadian] 18/6/2015 15:37

JG

Thank you for posting that. I appreciated it especially as I have a decent holding. IC sang the praises of BVS but I think that this beats them on most criteria.

Arc.

[jgoold] 18/6/2015 07:50

A write up in Lex in the FT:


Freshly ground coffee looks just like instant. But looks can be deceiving. Berkeley looks a lot like other UK housebuilders. Like its rivals, it is enjoying the benefits of a recovering economy and low interest rates. And, like the others it trades on a forward price to earnings ratio of about 13. But in other respects it is very different. Unlike the rest, Berkeley builds almost exclusively in London and southeast England. And when measured on price to book value, its shares trade at a premium to peers.

The question of whether Berkeley’s shares look more attractive than those of its rivals rests on whether PE or price to book is the better metric, and whether it deserves a premium.


There is a lot to be said for the price to book route. Housebuilders are property companies (inventory accounts for four-fifths of Berkeley’s assets). Success depends on skill at buying and selling land. Berkeley’s year-end results — reported on Wednesday — showed a pre-tax return on equity of 29 per cent. It is a good buyer and seller. The drawback of price to book is that much depends on each builder’s valuation method. The PE ratio, based on the earnings the company delivers, and so the money it has to reinvest or distribute, looks more reliable.
Does Berkeley deserve a premium? Building pricey apartments in London is good business just now. Profits over the next three years will be almost a fifth higher than previously expected. And its commitment to capital discipline is impressive. In the good times, housebuilders tend to give in to the temptation to spend as much as possible on land buying, only to regret the splurge when the cycle turns. Berkeley has a clear capital return plan in place — 434p per share has been paid out over the past three years, with 866p (or a quarter of the market capitalisation) to come in the next six years. It is much harder to renege on such clear commitments than on vaguer dividend or share buyback policies.
All of which suggests that Berkeley merits a PE premium to other housebuilders. Wednesday’s 8 per cent share price jump gets things going. Expect Berkeley to become more different still.

[chinese investor] 17/6/2015 19:53

I will do that redips2.
He is an ex director whose holding is not in the header !

[redips2] 17/6/2015 14:56

Buy him a coffee and a nice big cake .

[chinese investor] 17/6/2015 14:29

It Just Gets Better !
I Went To School With One Of The Leading Lights At Berkeley !