Base Resources Share Discussion Threads

[plasybryn] 28/1/2023 15:32

I hadn't realised such weather was a potential problem for mining operations. Sounds pretty harsh conditions.In January and February last year, four major storms hit Madagascar, killing at least 138 people, destroying 124,000 homes and displacing about 130,000 people

[plasybryn] 28/1/2023 15:30

The storm and rain had so far displaced just over 60,000 people and damaged 13,000 houses and 100 classrooms, the European Commission's Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations department said in a statement on Thursday.Madagascar and Mozambique in recent years have been repeatedly hit by severe storms and cyclones that have destroyed homes, infrastructure and crops and displaced large numbers of people.

[plasybryn] 28/1/2023 15:29

- Heavy rainfall that followed the landfall of Tropical Storm Cheneso in Madagascar has killed 16 people and left 17 missing, the government's Office for Risk and Disaster Management said.The storm, which reached land on Jan. 19, is the first for 2023 of an annual series that typically forms in the Indian Ocean off the coast of the island nation.Three people had died as the storm battered Madagascar and another 13 in the heavy rain that followed its departure, the office said in a statement late on Thursday. The rain was persisting, it said.

[plasybryn] 24/1/2023 09:59

Proactive (Andrew Scott) Interview out with Kevin Balloch
Proactive Investors

[janekane] 16/1/2023 03:41

Nice big buyer in Australia this morning

[plasybryn] 14/1/2023 19:09

Sorry missed that RNS! Still a reasonable holding but strange time to divest shares perhaps with the Co. indicating a Fiscal announcement by end of January. Will that prove to be wishful thinking again?

[mondex] 14/1/2023 18:11

Perhaps because they divested 13,454,279 shares from their previous holding of 101,263,610 shareholding.

[plasybryn] 14/1/2023 15:32

How do you know?

[daemonfunds] 13/1/2023 21:12

fidelity getting tired of waiting for the madagascans?

[plasybryn] 12/1/2023 17:51

As at 30 September 2022Solid equity base (ASX & AIM: BSE)A$265.1m market capitalisation @ A$0.225A tight, institutional register, including:Pacific Road Capital (26.5%)Sustainable Capital (23.8%)Fidelity (9.0%)Regal Funds Management (7.83%)Net cash position of US$73.1mâ-¦ Cash and cash equivalents of US$73.1m â-¦ No debt

[plasybryn] 12/1/2023 16:41

From last AGM presentation

122 holes drilled for 3,015m as part of Tanzanian RC drilling program.
• 3,015 samples exported to Kwale Operations in Kenya for assaying.
• Results expected to be released in March 2023 quarter.
Decision on 10,000m infill program subject to assay results.

Fiscal Terms Toliara assumed January 2023
Discussions with the Government of Madagascar on the fiscal terms applicable to the project are now at an advanced stage, with a clear pathway for agreement to be reached, and the suspension of on-ground-activities lifted.

[plasybryn] 11/1/2023 16:41

Frustrating. We need an encouraging update which will no doubt be delayed till James returns from his extended winter break next week. Perhaps some will use it as an opportunity to pick up a few more. What is priced in at 12p for goodness sake.

[janekane] 11/1/2023 16:04

Unexpected drop today big sell in Australia yesterday

[janekane] 11/1/2023 16:04

Unexpected drop today big sell in Australia yesterday

[plasybryn] 11/1/2023 09:22

James Fuller is away till 16th January apparently

[janekane] 06/1/2023 06:30

Another strong session in Australia this morning/ yesterday we certainly are now in a positive bull market
I’me not expecting a move north on the BSE share price today UK exchange but things are really positive in Australia so will not be surprised on further moves north here

[janekane] 05/1/2023 15:40

interesting trades £30k are they buys or sells my information supplier says buys

[dangersimpson2] 05/1/2023 11:31

The market won't immediately price Toliara from a few % chance of happening to 100% on the day the fiscal terms are agreed. Not least because there is a lot of other hurdles to clear, not least financing. When they produced the DFS they had customers lined up to provide the equity financing part of the deal for a percentage of the project and guaranteed offtake agreements. In many ways the end markets for HMS have got even better since then, but the cost of capital has gone up globally so there is probably a bit more uncertainty over financing. The team did it before tho at Kwale, and in a far less favourable global background.

Still, a 25% change in the chance of Toliaria being a success is about the current market cap so any movement on this should have a very significant impact on the share price.

[janekane] 05/1/2023 07:49

Morning plasybryn
EGGS ,CHICKENS, HATCHING, MATHEMATICS,
wonderful start of a discussion on a cold winter’s morning in the glorious UK
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYBODY

[plasybryn] 04/1/2023 18:52

Around 68p per share.

[plasybryn] 04/1/2023 18:49

Thanks for your considered views. Very interesting. So if Tolaira gets the FID you see the value nearer one billion.What ever plenty of upside. Good risk/reward play.

[dangersimpson2] 04/1/2023 18:23

In terms of valuation. I see the NPV12 of Kwale Cash Flows of around $220m, minus central costs of around $14m for the next two years. $25m Toliara spend to FID and say about $10m of Kwale Explo. This gives an NPV for Kwale + cash - cost - capex of around $240m.

Toliara really needs to be treated probabilistically. It has an NPV12 of at least $733m. If we estimate a 70% chance it goes ahead, and FID is in 9 months. Then it has an NPV of $470m.

Total valuation = $710m = 49p per share.

Of course, the market isn't pricing any of this. It is assuming that Toliara has less than 10% chance of going into production and that the majority of the cash flow from Kwale will be wasted. Seems unduly pessimistic to me, given both their strong development and operational history and willingness to return excess capital to shareholders, hence I am a holder.

[plasybryn] 04/1/2023 17:38

Say £100m in cash against a Market Cap of £159m. Nonsense. Obviously somehow this has been overlooked.

[plasybryn] 04/1/2023 17:36

The Market Cap is only £159m so the cash element must now be a significant part of this, making it very cheap at 14p. What would be a fair valuation.

[dangersimpson2] 04/1/2023 16:53

I think we could get news on Toliara, or if not, another big stonking dividend announced. Remember, this was trading over 20p in August when they announced news of another Aus3c dividend.

Since then, the news has been a recent record September quarter production, with prices at or near their peak for all three commodities. There has been a slightly weaker market outlook, but even so, this would represent historically high prices achieved. At 30 September, they had $73.1m cash despite some sales timing meaning lower shipments vs sales in the quarter. Assuming this catches up during the year they should have a further $45m FCF in the December quarter.

So apart from no news on Toliara, the newsflow has been almost all positive, yet the share price is down at 14p. This has partly just been a lacklustre Aus market for commodity stocks, but, at the end of the day, the cash that will be piling up on the balance sheet and/or paid out as dividends cannot be ignored forever.