Baillie Gifford Us Growth Share Discussion Threads

[takeiteasy] 01/8/2023 16:08

My only wish for Christmas is BG fall rapidly out of love with moderna -one way bet downwards at the moment falling hard even on days the market is rising. I think just about everyone can work out the pandemic is over and the sales of the vaccines are ever dwindling - why can BG not see this and they seem to have them at very high levels in so many funds...I wonder how much this puts people off...

The other thing that has changed so much from 2 years ago pre pandemic is that when the market went up punters pushed this up by an amount too. We seem to be entirely disconnected from the market in this respect for the interim...

[quepassa] 01/8/2023 15:23

hopefully as the rest of the quoted market is steadily increasing in value - so will the unlisted equally be subject to UPWARDS revaluation.

and likely sooner rather than later perhaps, I surmise


i don't really see why investors are so concerned about the unlisted element of the portfolio. For me, it's the cherry on top of the sundae. I want access to the future ipo heroes and ipo unicorns which are otherwise effectively off limits to private investors.

And this investment trust has the highest proportion of its assets that I can find invested in SpaceX which is destined to become the most valuable company in the world when it floats. That's exciting.

If investors don't like unlisted, there are just so many other funds and trust to chose from, so why do they invest here in the first place?

good luck all.

but one things is for sure....

.....the market seems to be falling rapidly back in love with both the GROWTH and the TECH sectors

all imo. dyor.
qp

[takeiteasy] 01/8/2023 14:47

Ex fair NAV 204p that is finally a chart breakout after many long months ...I guess ongoing assurance is needed over the PE holdings but they are thankfully shrinking day by day as a percentage of total assets as I wish BG would keep these to a far lower level ...

[quepassa] 31/7/2023 14:16

SIGNIFICANT jump in NAV today from 195p to 199.5p.

[takeiteasy] 17/7/2023 21:20

Are things finally starting to turn in the PE space?

Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies, the most highly valued private tech company in the U.S., has told some investors it expects to bring in about $8 billion in revenue in 2023, roughly doubling its revenue from the previous year. The expectation for rapid growth helps explain the fervor of some investors for SpaceX shares, which have defied recently depressed private tech valuations.
www.theinformation.com

[alhambra1] 28/6/2023 11:25

£54k purchase today....

🫢🤔🤫

[takeiteasy] 17/6/2023 05:40

hxxps://stripe.com/en-gb/newsroom/news/stripe-and-openai

Seventy-five percent of the leading generative AI companies have signed up with Stripe to go to market quickly, scale with compliance in mind, and bring their products to many more users worldwide. They include OpenAI, Runway, Diagram, and Moonbeam.

“As these new AI companies proliferate, we’re helping them with smart monetization strategies that get their products into more hands. Personally, I’m excited to easily buy more DALL·E credits and continue my forays into AI-assisted painting,” said David Singleton, chief technology officer at Stripe.

If you look at top 10 trust holdings Stripe sits higher in % holdings than both Tesla and Nvidia which shows enormous courage and conviction given both these two giants recent relative out-performance so let's see what happens as they say :)


hxxps://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/638a2e63e7d4101440882de8/648cb6efbf930631973a9373_Caplight%20Data%20Insights%206-16.pdf

[takeiteasy] 17/6/2023 05:31

Owning a share like this trust with a high PE element has been like watching paint dry for the recent lack of excitement compared to the earlier days pre COVID...but who knows our patience may be rewarded eventually with a chance that the valuations may start to be influenced by firms wanting to go public again and be rewarded with the appropriate valuation...



The IPO schedule has been remarkably quiet over the past 18 months as appetite for new issuances sank with the overall market prices. The few companies that have gone public have mostly been small, interesting micro caps.

Cava is the first high-profile IPO since 2021, when every week seemed to have a SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) merger or IPO lead the headlines. The heavy demand for CAVA shares seen on Thursday means that investment banks will likely get to work in order to bring the next batch of private companies to public markets.

Halfway through 2023, there have only been about 45 IPOs on Wall Street, which have raised a collective $7.6 billion. This is already nearly overtaking the value of IPOs in all of 2022 but is not even close to 2021’s exuberant IPO market. In that year Wall Street pushed out nearly 400 IPOs that raised more than $142 billion in capital.

dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 03/6/2023 05:23

There is a decent portion here in PE stakes and the only proxy for understanding the valuation changes is to track the progress of the Schiehallion fund which has many of the same holdings as we have (not in same proportions of course).

Accepting this is all very approximate (but better than nothing) you can see that the NAV during 2023 has continued to tail off meaningfully month on month, with the exception of the update to 1/6 when the monthly change was down <1%.

Does this mean we are now at a bottom of the PE valuation downgrading cycle for our cohort of businesses. If it is not the bottom, lets all hope it is right close to the bottom and the very large discount here compensates for this.

It will be interesting to monitor the PE fund update at the end of June to see if we are truly into a reversal.



hxxps://www.businesspost.ie/tech/stripe-snaps-up-us-founded-analytics-start-up-in-first-acquisition-in-16-months/

hxxps://solugen.com/meet-the-bioforge-in-2050
(updates from some of the larger PE holdings I track) dyor etc

[joy division still] 02/6/2023 21:44

Back in this trust , good managers , good investment house, good growth market, good discount, equals Great opportunity , I'll let it ride up n down for a few years as I think this will get back to 230ish.

[takeiteasy] 02/6/2023 05:22

Interesting article on trustnet on this fund that for some reason the system does not allow me to post a link so have tried to paste the more relevant section but give trustnet credit for the information etc...may 2023 article...

After the past three years, which the manager acknowledged have been “very tough” for investors in the fund and “even tougher” for the underlying businesses, the future ahead isn’t the more certain, with risks including a debt-ceiling crisis, persistently high interest rates and a recession looming in the US as well as other developed markets.But, when comparing the situation to the great financial crisis of 2008, Gibson sees more differences than similarities.“We've done a lot of work in the past couple of years on the resilience of our portfolio, identifying those companies that have a greater need to raise capital (which in an environment where capital is scarce is a difficult situation to be in) and those companies which are resilient,” she said.“More than 75% of companies that we hold are generating free cash flow, which is one of the main focuses for companies right now. Many of them raised a lot of money during the pandemic, so they’ll also have very large balance sheets.”
trustnet.com/news/13378591/baillie-giffords-gibson-we-have-to-decide-how-much-of-our-portfolio-is-invested-in-companies-that-will-not-survive (please add the right prefix to make the link work)

[vacendak] 01/6/2023 12:20

I guess those "growth only/no dividend" funds are at the mercy of the interest rate saga. When things calm down a bit, maybe after a short recession to dampen inflation, things should go back to normal, this time without the extravagance of yesteryear.

The PE ITs I invest in at the moment NBPE and CTPE pay a dividend, so even with the silly discount, I get something for sitting tight. Still mildly optimistic about USA but not as mad about it as I used to be. :(

[takeiteasy] 01/6/2023 12:13

The change in valuation from last round to this funding round in the specific case today on CNBC was a rise of over 40% so not exactly chicken feed as they say...

[takeiteasy] 01/6/2023 12:00

Interesting views - what do you make of the pure BG USA VC fund and I won't write down the fullname in case I wrongly type it but starts with an S...it seems to have a larger discount too..

[vacendak] 01/6/2023 11:57

At least this one is with a country that should still be open for business in the future.

I got burnt badly with BGCG (China Trust) with the same remit: Pure growth/Tomorrow's companies. I exited towards the end of 2022, not so unlucky me this time as it is doing even worse now.

Still holding on USA, not crystalising my losses. I am considering adding a bit more at some point. I am currently piling into PE where the discounts are also too wide.

[takeiteasy] 01/6/2023 11:41

Discount stubbornly holding at around 22-23 percent - I see on CNBC news that a US VC start up got funding through at a higher valuation today (not one of ours though) but assume we will need a lot more where this came from to restore confidence more generally in the private valuations ...dyor etc

[chris79] 21/5/2022 12:10

The discount here is way too great. The BG growth story was never as good or bad as markets made out. I would not call a bottom but long-term this is a great buying level to me on a stock which just seems to move by a multiple of whatever Tesla does daily, granted it is the biggest holding but at the end of the day is 5%

[vacendak] 21/5/2022 10:00

The thing about Tesla is the same as for Google.
Google is not a search engine, it is a data slurper.

Likewise, Tesla is a data slurper/AI developer that happens to sell a car on the side for collecting that data.

I am pretty sure that most of the tech companies are also not valued on what they do/sell primarily, but what they do, or will be able to do, behind the scenes. Hence the high volatility.

Anyway, USA will likely rise again.

[vacendak] 20/5/2022 16:59

I had bought a small position at 269p back in November 2020, mostly out of greed - and at a premium! - since there seemed to be only one way by then and that way was up.

At around 20% discount, this is now far more affordable and it will have to go back up. Those companies will go back up at some point, maybe with less exuberance, but they logically should.

This is not a huge slice of my portfolio, a "satellite" at best as some say.

[spectoacc] 20/5/2022 15:41

Trashed in trash.

Got eye on BG funds - SMT, USA, BGEU - but none seem like buys yet.

Epoch-defining bubble, why not an epoch-defining bust. MoneyWeek suggests we're a year away from the bottom (but who knows).

Other problems are BG's recent fondness for unlisteds - fine, when money is free and no-profit, minimal-revenue Unicorns are everywhere. Not so good when the market turns, and revaluations (down) take so long to come through. SMT's NAV clearly isn't likely to be what's currently reported, with c.30% in unlisteds.


USA Top 10 according to April Factsheet:

TSLA (still multiples over-valued)
The Trade Desk (no idea)
Space Exploration Technologies (ditto)
Stripe
Moderna
Amazon
Faire Wholesale (no idea)
Brex (no idea)
Shopify (cheaper than it was! 77% down in 6 months, 9% just today)
Illumina


BG really like Moderna, Ilumina, TSLA, seem to be in almost every fund.

Don't follow a few of those holdings - opinions welcome.

Discount getting near highs, and there's been a few buy-backs, but another big problem with BG ITs - they're sufficiently gung-ho to have gone into the tech crash with gearing, and that gearing rises the further their holdings fall.

[vacendak] 12/5/2022 15:08

I will add to it at the end of the month, hopefully just before all that blood on the streets of "tech + growth" begins to coagulate again.

As they say: "For every Palm Sunday there is a Golgotha"


The article is about the funds, but the ITs are not faring any better.
The BG golden boys are really getting trashed at the moment.