Baillie Gifford Us Growth Share Discussion Threads

[abcd1234] 17/3/2008 16:56

ben, where do u get your level 2, for your trading on the us stocks ?
thanks

[ben gunn] 17/3/2008 16:54

dst
Try Ameritrade, I have a US $ account with them.

n.b. Looking at the weekly DOW pattern above.......the gap down overnight was taken out within 2 hours of the formal Monday opening of the market followed by a continued drift downwards. Classic pattern (not that I believe in daily patterns)

[dstanley] 14/3/2008 07:36

Trying again - please help even if it's to say that it cannot be done. Thanks

[dstanley] 13/3/2008 21:08

Trying again - please help even if it's to say that it cannot be done. Thanks

[dstanley] 12/3/2008 20:02

Please help - Is there any way a UK resident can open a trading account
to buy and sell US stock online? I would happily trade in dollars to avoid
currency conversions.
I currently use iDealing.com but the overheads are criminal and the choice
of stock is severely limited. Also they have no dealers available after 5pm.

[ben gunn] 06/3/2008 23:09

New Clarity New Tactics

After leaving the IG Index shorting account closed for almost 2 years it has been re-opened in order to short the DOW (March 2009) and BSKyB (Sept) and a couple of old favourites from the London market.

This is dangerous territory. Most sound short positions are for 4 days or less but I intend to run positions for over 4 months. I will not cover the stop loss tactics as I dont want to encourage others in this unhealthy pursuit but they are guaranteed and the positions are all paid for up front rather than on-tick. They, between them have already covered their spread costs.

The reasoning behind this gambling is simply that the disconnect between the apalling credit news and the resurgence in equities since mid Jan means that there is a unique opportunity to trade at attractive prices despite the bear market writing being all over the wall. Across the western markets prices have risen back above 20 day moving averages, failed to hold above 50 day lines and never got near to breaking back out above the 200 day line defense. The best proxy for what will happen in the next 3 months is to project forward the 200 day moving average of a preference share . i.e. downwards.

This week the resurgence on Tuesday pm and Wednesday (When I was at a Portfolio Composition conference) has been neatly and smoothly washed away. "Citi"bank is releasing fresh figures which will cause further despondency so the hour to act is now.

It is going to cost £16,000 to re-paint and re-roof the house in France that I bought in 1997 from profits on BSY short options so I need this gamble to come off before the end of the summer. I will also need the DOW to travel in a suitable straight South by South East line. The next 15% of equity falls may be short and sharp or long drawn out into the summer. Liquidity will become an issue in many markets and stocks like New Star falling by 8% today and Anglo Irish by 10% imply continuing tough conditions.

For now a balanced portfolio should contain gold, long/Indexed gilts, medium gilts and cash.

[ben gunn] 21/2/2008 13:56

NAS futures are still rising so I imagine that the "Canute like" retreat from 6000 will be followed by renewed strength which I expect to peter out before Friday night's close.
Possibly time to enter half the position today and half on Monday.

Update Monday 25th (lunchtime):
There was a weird leap up as DOW closed on Friday but gold was steady as a rock...we can expect the dithery trend of the first 3 weeks in Feb to be replaced by a clear downward path from this surprising level of strength. The surprising strength included another momentary visit of 6000 by the FTSE 100 here in London on Monday at 10.30 am..
Bolder people than me could benefit from this.

[ben gunn] 19/2/2008 13:37

FTSE has hit 6000 and the NAS Comp may well rise 40+ points today correcting the falls on Thursday and Friday last week.
I wouldnt read too much into these bounces. The only trends that matter are the movement after the month's main data (e.g. Wednesday pm) and the movement month end to month end.

[ben gunn] 09/2/2008 11:13

Hector



I'm sorry that my attempt to cut and paste the SLXX chart for Jan failed.
As I see it this(the sector etf for corporate bonds) is the key chart for this recession.
There is little speculation in this sector (compared to some) and so what you see is what you get......lower lows and lower highs.
The idea of a recovery It. is fine but the timing must be right.
I will invest 15% (approx) of my funds back into equities when lower lows and lower highs are replaced by higher lows and higher highs.
More of the portfolio will follow once this proves profitable for the second month and then the rolling quarter.

Gold is looking stronger as a hedge, oil is looking less certain.

[hectorp] 05/2/2008 09:44

I'm temted to take a long term view and buy a US recovery Investment trust.

[ben gunn] 03/2/2008 13:03

End Jan Update

Gold closed at $913.5.....What more can I say.

Mean reversion was minor on the NAS but huge for the DOW & S&P in the last week of Jan. This generated many false recovery signals in these markets since the moving averages have overreached themselves on the downside thus an apparent positive breakout by the indeces is shown. Apply caution during such volatility.

Jan has produced the equity index falls that we had expected for 2 months so the pressure is now off "leading signals" and onto "benchmark signals" such as the 200 day EMA for the NAS being roundly breached.

The big news story in JAN was the astonishing weakness in Sterling as G Brown's whole performance and stature crumbles. Some of our portfolios have benefited strongly in sterling terms from European positioning. Some have not.
The Barclays high risk portfolio shows a 2.5% gain in the week as small Oils bubbled up as well as the euro bonds benefitting from Sterling weakness.
Oils have now been sold and, of course, 2.5% rise in a week wont be repeated.

London Newspapers have been silent on Sterling's fall from 103% to 95.7% of its 2002 values,1.1/96.8 on Friday 1st Feb alone, (bar William Keegan). Why?

[ben gunn] 23/1/2008 11:55

Mid Jan Update

Nothing exceptional to report as last 6 days turbulance and the Fed's two panic moves have had a broadly neutral effect on bonds overall. The dislocation in equity market valuations is approaching the end of its first phase but as Timingcube only issued a sell signal on 4th Jan I dont expect to be re-weighting towards industrials for 12 to 24 months.
Long bonds have performed best which is a positive sign for overall size of the return expected from holding bonds going forward.

Whatever the governments do a recession is now upon us.Gold is quietly strong and should regain $900 by month end. Equity price bounces can be expected to be short term as the corporate bond price trend is firmly down.
(i.e.Equities and riskier corporate bonds can be expected to trend in the same direction.....but the corporate bond charts do it without the confusion of day to day noise and therefore are a more accurate guide to where the market is and its future course)

Anyone reading this who does not feel suitably positioned for a year or two of equity hell might do well to wait for a bit before selling. We might expect some mean reversion at month end. These large retracements may minimise the losses that people crystalise in switching out of equities into gilts "with a foreign flavour"

De-risking looks the best bet until equity and corporate bond markets regain their 200 day moving averages.

[ben gunn] 10/1/2008 08:46

Update
The 20 day moving average for the NAS Comp has broken down through the 200 day line this week. Naturally after 8 straight days of falls the NAS gave a strong late bounce yesterday and I should expect more of the same in NEW York Thursday a.m.. he down trend remains in place.

IBGS (The short dated Euro denominated etf collection of government bonds) has risen to 99 but I would now expect its rise to falter after such energy. If the EMC cuts Uk interest rates then the rise will renew otherwise it may retreat making today a poor day to add to holdings. Perhaps wait at least until it slips back to its 5 day moving average price of 98.3.

The FT has carried a letter of mine calling for a 2 basis points global tax on derivative positions to calm the markets down:

Sir, Lex reports ("Quant investing", January 3) that no investment manager is looking at quant packages in quite the same way after one turbulent week in August. Quite. In future, Lex expects turbulence to be tamed by managers forgoing profit by using more restrained gearing. Not quite so likely.

Two "issues" have arisen in today's financial markets. First, trading using derivatives is practically cost-free so there is a strong bias towards taking active positions. Introducing even a globally policed "fee" of 2 basis points would calm financial markets to a remarkable degree.

Second, investment managers' main boards (let alone their regulators) have precious little idea of what their more exuberant traders are up to "intra-month". This has led to extreme intra-month peaks and troughs. For banks and so on making more than 20 per cent of their earnings from trading, the production and formal review of mid-month balance sheets should become mandatory.

This may encourage further calming at little cost. Less gearing would, of course, also be admirable.

Ben

[ben gunn] 04/1/2008 21:59

HAPPY NEW YEAR
The Euro based bonds (such as IBGI which is up 17% over 6 months) are showing particularly well turbocharged by sterling's stumble.
High Yield bonds have all been sold in favour of Government stuff.


Ample's charts of the NAS are down so:
a) Intel, as a proxy for NAS, is over 6% down, crashed back down through the 200 day line to a new low for 3 years....headline stuff!
b) DOW is sharply down to a point matching its November low. The 200 day line is flat and can be expected to resume its downward track of November. This may shortly trigger the Digital Investing Culcutta convention when we no longer expect a recovery of the index to its 200 day line so the only clear rule is to sell.

Monday may bring short term relief to equities but if the DOW falls further over the next week it will reveal a new lower low for the last 6 months and that may trigger some dramatic technical trades. Liquidity will dry up and on-line NMS will shrink on smaller stocks.

Agressive switching to Bonds has already paid off hansomely since the end of November and we can comfortably anticipate a successful Jan 2008 after a very mixed 2007.

[ben gunn] 22/11/2007 10:31

After the Bull
Last night's close of the NAS Comp strongly bellow its 200 day moving average gives us the clear signal of the arrival of the bear market.

The pace of the fall means that a government bond price pullback can be expected so purchases should be finessed as others have been buying already.

Earlier this week I expressed on The Naked Trader BB:
I prefer IBGM to (10 to 15 year overseas govt bonds)to IGGX (3 to 5 Years).
They are up 0.7% this a.m. which is an annualised rate of return of 150%+ so I could even see BBJL buying some.
As soon as I see the pre open NAS at 1.15 p.m. I expect to buy a few more.
(Shares Mag recommended a short on RMV yesterday...seems to be happening)

If any lurkers are unsure what to do...de-risking should keep your options open either way.

Smarm, you wrote above about interest rates. I know that today we have very high bank rate and an inverted bond yield curve so some are worried about high rates going forward. As I see it going forward:
*Low taxation puts too much money in investors pockets
*wealth shifting from US spenders to asian savers puts cash in investors pockets.
*Week GDP growth in G7 countries frees up lots of spare cash which might otherwise have been invested
*Loopy loans to private equity fatcats is on hold for now.

These 5 factors all mean that if equities tank for 18 months people will be bidding yields on good government bonds down and down and down.
(This makes buy & hold on Property companies a poor bet as they have fixed price debt so as interest rates fall below 4% they will have to create massive provisions against their suddenly "overpriced" fixed rate debt)

Todays FT and the LSE falling 5% seem about as much signal as people need.

Good hunting and remember...only cash, govt bonds and overseas govt bonds can protect you from a recession if it comes.

[seagreen] 07/11/2007 15:09

20% up today

[seagreen] 07/11/2007 10:26

worth reading the latest presentation in header they are looking for a rerating and are cash positive

[seagreen] 31/10/2007 09:46

Well I did not collect last time and got out flat

Try again long at 90cents the mine is a little bit more developed and the team are on a road trip this week

[seagreen] 07/5/2007 15:08

Any of you with facility to buy Canadian shares should look very closely as this has 1 bagger easilya dn 2 bagger probbaly there is seriously ramped up production going on and a broker report with canadian $2.50 target on it
good luck

[seagreen] 04/5/2007 12:25

Oh yes sir we have lift off dont blink it will be Can$2 before you open your eyes

[seagreen] 19/4/2007 09:06

nice volume coming back to its all time highs looking for this to go to Can$2 failry smartly as the word gets out..of the production increase potential

[seagreen] 18/4/2007 16:17

1.5m traded so far the institutions are buying

[seagreen] 18/4/2007 16:12

I will limit it to 5 bagger for now...8-)