Baillie Gifford Us Growth Share Discussion Threads

[its the oxman] 06/5/2020 15:48

New high 177p while wider market is shafted.

[29palms] 31/1/2020 10:39

Amazon & Tesla will provide nice fill up to NAV
As always,
DYOR

[vraic] 21/1/2020 09:53

Half year report out today.
As a holder since the start
am pleased with its progress.
Well done the managers of this
a long term story.

dyor

[its the oxman] 16/1/2020 10:43

Nearing its all time high of 151p

[29palms] 10/6/2019 21:29

Baillie Gifford US Growth holding of Tableau Software being taken out in all share deal by CRM providing a gain of circa 34% on the holding at close of play tonight in USA.
IMO, this will give a nice fill up to NAV when reported tomorrow.
Another stock for investors looking to gain from exposure of NASDAQ and NYSE shares in their portfolio.
As always,
DYOR

[29palms] 27/12/2018 14:05

RNS update - NAV @ 26th Dec = 104.33p

[29palms] 27/12/2018 12:40

Today's NAV only shows at COB on 24th Dec and doesn't take account of the 1000+ point gain on the DOW or the 5.8% gain on the NASDAQ yesterday.

Have patience until tomorrow for an update on NAV taking account of the massive gain yesterday.

[pngasef] 27/12/2018 11:20

Wow. NAV fallen to 97p!! Share price holding up well despite this.

[29palms] 29/8/2018 21:26

Trust holding Glaukos Corp ends the trading session @ $62.86 +40.3%
Fang stocks also motoring tonight so should provide a fillup to NAV

[29palms] 29/8/2018 17:17

One of the trusts holdings - Glaukos Corp - showing gain tonight on NYSE of 33.6%
..along with the fang stocks this trust has some of the best US holdings for growth and gains IMO

[29palms] 22/7/2018 19:35

Trust portfolio details-

[nocrapversion4] 04/7/2018 13:43

portfolio-adviser.com/baillie-gifford-funds-go-bonkers-riding-the-tech-boom/

a news report showing how the baillie gifford is outperforming dividend funds due to its high conviction, but it does state exactly what baillie gifford state, expect periods of high ups, and periods of low lows.

[nocrapversion4] 04/7/2018 13:35

Zipline international is the first of the private companies the trust has bought IMO, log on to baillie gifford, scroll to trust, then open up portfolio, list all stocks,
the last one is the only one that is not in an index.


( bet you Im right lol)


the company operates drones that can fly medical supplies to remote areas. have a google.

[nocrapversion4] 24/6/2018 16:17

finally if you follow traders rules and go for a 1:3 risk reward, that means using a 1% total loss, you base it on the weekly fluctuations of said stock/trust.


( one famous hedge fund manager goes for 1:5 risk reward, he places 5 bets of 20% total capital each,, 4% stop loss,he needs just one of them to win to make 20% gain overall.)

and buffett follows same principles, basic algebra, he looks for easy wins and bets hard.

though one of the books i mentioned last week,, insiderbuy superstocks book,think it was one where a trader went from $46,000 to $6.4, million in 2 yrs was via betting very large on high risk, he either went away rich or bust, he went bust 3 times he said,he did warn in his book, it made you either very rich or very poor!!

George soros bets big if he thinks the rewards are high enough and the risk is low.

you cant possibly ask baillie gifford to bet 10% of total capital in one single private unlisted stock,more like 1%, but you could ask them to place that bet on amazon, which they do!


the famous 1920'strader Jessie Lvermore eventually went bust, he didnt control his bet sizes, even though the volume, timing and trend was right!!!!

as this trust fluctuates about 2% a week, we can then place say 40% of our total capital in a trade, with a 2% stop loss, but prefer to use stop say bottom or below 50 day moving average.

if we get stopped out at 2% then we lost 0.8% total capital, plus trading fees,thus we can up stop loss slightly higher.(1% rule)

If you lose, and place a new trade, place the same total pounds in order to keep things equal in returns if you win.but if you lose too many in a row., then the market is too volatile and chopy and hence reduce position sizes on future trades.or stay out until it settles.

but always use max loss 1% of total capital(not the capital you placed as that is already a certain % of eg 20%, 40%).

we aim for 1 in 3 reward we then need it to go up min 6%. (2% potential drop)on a 40% of total capital trade)this translates to a 3% total reward of your 100% capital as you have placed 40% in trade.

if stock moved 4% up our down weekly, then its a trade of 20% total with 12% upside, translates to almost 3% total reward.

in summary, place your trade depending on the volatilty of said stock/trsut, eg high volitilty , low bet % of total as you allow for larger fluctuations in down and up, but still aim for 1;3 factor on trade.

in sirius minerlas it has a huge beta, very volitile, thatss why amatuers are sitting on big losses as they bet everything and rode it down all the way fast,and are now stuck with he stock..

smoother lower beta stocks lets you risk more per bet, but always have a stop loss and trailing stop loss.

if you are dealing with AIM market stops, the market makers are in charge, and its much harder game, very much manipualtion by big sellers and big buyers and the market makers,plus huge spreads, thats why the books tell you to avoid tiny stocks, but baillie gifford will own small/microcaps that arent traded often for that reason.

less manipulation, buy and longterm hold only on those, if picked correctly and have huge upside some of the winners.

with this trust,I think those on the sidelines are waiting for a pullback, that may not come for a while, but we must just go by the movements of price and execution of trade, not our gut feelingsimo.

[nocrapversion4] 24/6/2018 14:00

an example of a bad buy and hold would be sirius minerals, it is the top followed stock on stock exchange on Friday, the darling stock of amatuer buy and hold dreamers,( check out the chatrooms to see)( they tend to owners that havent been around the block so to speak,first timers and buy based on their dreams not the risks or the stock price movements and bet the farm on it)

it has no revenue, product,profits,it has huge debt, huge convertible stock, but a great story.

the anlaysts promised 60p, that was TWO years ago, the stock is still 31p.if you buy and hold over last 5 yrs , you have made 20%, its too volatile,

the traders are trading it, day, weekly traders , private and institutions.it was traded when it moved sideways for months and months last year or so, the buy and holders were going mad,blaming lousy traders for the damage to their wealth.

it is far far too volatile a stock,it moves far to fast up or down, imo. some folk have bet their life savings in a buy and hold.

I want to own 50 to 100 baggers, that dont have huge debt, arent listed on the stock exchange, arent commodity stocks, but potential future monopolies,eg i want privately listed high growth unicorns eg what the trust will own.I ALSO WANT LOW BETA trusts, eg this trust, low beta doesnt spike madly, wont catch you out, will climb smoothly and fall smoothly.

buy and hold folk that cant trade shouldnt be owning volatile stocks woned by dreamers like sirius minerals,

they would have made more steady longterm gains in low beta trusts like scottish mortgage investment trust, which i also like, but prefer this us growth trust as it is starting at a lower market capital base and hasnt been discovered yet and will own potentially more unicorns than SMT.!

[nocrapversion4] 24/6/2018 13:27

Also, the reason index followers and pension fund managers, IFA's say just buy an index and buy and hold, is they dont want you to trend follow, they wont admit stocks get bought and sold on daily, weekly, monthly emotions and ups and downs.even if the fundamentals of the stocks are very good.

plus they say active managers that churn cost more to own because of that, yes, but baillie keep their stocks for 8 yrs on average, they dont churn, and baillie dont own an index, they arent index huugers, they think min 5 yrs in advance, sometimes 10 yrs if it is unlisted private stocks.

next time you see a high turnover manager only thinking 3 months ahead, dont buy his/her fund imo.

and i wouldnt follow the permanent portfolio thinking eg 25% cash, gold, longterm gov bonds, stocks,

why cos mainly bonds will drop in price when interest rates rise, gold hasnt really went anywhere over last many, many years,

it is simply a portfolio for very very rich folk that cant decide which way the market will go, hence they try preserve their capital.IMO, own which asset is in demand, then switch which is far far easier with thousands of pounds, than it is if you are a multi millionaire in the permanent portfolio.

If any recommendations for say biggest, best stocks, eg amazon, google go from BUY to HOLD by analysts, then IMO, get a little worried, maybe the very start of a change in market?? bear??

[nocrapversion4] 24/6/2018 13:09

all signs still looking positive at mo, baillie gifford pick good stocks fundamentally, they hold long term concentrated portfolios.

but they have to hold thick or thin,even in a bear market,

we cant predict,the next one, so dont try, what we can do if if you want a slight edge imo, is own it on the positive ups,trendline following, during the accumulation periods only.(maybe short a ftse 100/250 etf, on some down days).i wouldnt short american stocks, the costs for overseas transactions plus exchange rates, doesnt make it worthwhile.


eg trade it. there are two enjoyable easy to read trading books for beginners free download, the books sell on amazon , but heres the links to the downloads.

the format is short pages, takes only an hour plus or so to read each.

(they arent written by a hedge fund manager etc, but written by a successful trading guy, trading for 20 years,,just an easy going fictional characters with great trading tips, its a bit like rich dad/poor dad book, but this author is more genuine, as richdad/poordad book author only really made his money thro writing books, not through advice in the book imo!!)


hxxp://1.droppdf.com/files/gDb1Q/new-trader-rich-trader-how-to-make-money-steve-burns.pdf

hxxp://1.droppdf.com/files/Jet0O/new-trader-rich-trader-2-good-trades-bad-steve-burns.pdf

Also in the warren buffett book the warren buffett way, it does show you how he picks stocks , he advertising for them in his yearly shareholders letters at berkshire hathaway,

he asks for pitches from owners of publicly listed stocks, that have a high ROCE and ROC,little debt,few competitors, steady growing profits,simple businesses, durable advantages, managers of integrity for sale between $1 billion and $20 billion.

he also used leverage of around 60% with his free insurance float from Geico, baillie gifford will use up to 30% leverage i believe ( usually 10-20% as stated in prospectus and hold no more than 20% of a single stock in the fund,(buffett follows that idea, bet heavy, dont dilute for the sake of, dont overdiversify), prob at a cost of say 4% borrowed interest, correct me if you can.

thats why it is so hard to replicate buffett, his returns werent so great without his free leverage.(plus he waited mostly till they were on sale, not always though, he paid handsomely for good businesses, in his later years, eg coke was already up 60 fold since its originall origins, and he still bought in)and the fact he bought complete business outright as well as partial through stocks, when you own a business fully, he said you have more control of it.!!

I know baillie gifford also use AI to help them pick stocks, they also accept emails from investors to recommend stocks they may have not noticed.

PS, from the books an important thing is analyst have price recommendations for stocks, it doesnt mean the market will follow them to that price, but follow what themr market thinks, not what you think or analyst says a stock is fundamentally worth, plenty of good stocks collapsed in bear markets,

why,? fear took over greed, folllow the trend, the emotions of the buyers and sellers IMO.

[nocrapversion4] 20/6/2018 14:05

another thing i noticed according to the book zero to one is alot of venture capitalists funds/trusts simply buy lots of start ups and hope some will double bag to pay for the ones that flopped. a spray and hope system.

this is bad thinking, all of these start up trusts and funds need to own only stocks that have the POTENTIAL to be 50 to 100 baggers.

why cos many many stocks will fail, but the ones that do grow will take time and have certain characteristics, and the return on just a few of those winnners outweight the losers by lots.

badly runs trusts and funds just look for fresh business ideas, they dont look deeper as to how big these business can become, as that causes them to simply pick 2 baggers etc which isnt enough to outweight the losers.
but only if they are multibaggers, cos the % of finding a 100 bagger is around 2%.



i feel baille gifford knows this and understands its all about scaling up and like minded thinking focused management /owners of private smaller stocks that lead to the success of the company.

I know james anderson of scottish mortgage investment trust mentions he has read and followed the book zero to one.


here is a free pdf copy of a book you can get on amazon.

100 baggers by Christopher Mayer

hxxp://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/100Baggers.pdf

[marksp2011] 17/6/2018 08:46

There is an inverse correlation between the number of posts/day and whether I want to own it :)

[nocrapversion4] 16/6/2018 12:06

the book above download, is more for the monthly trader, it does have nice tips i never thought of, its all about individual stocks, good fundamentals,cant be a mega cap with billions of shares(too slow to rise)

it must have a small free float, hence it can rise fast(but fall just as fast imo)be small caps,(not diluting no profits, same old, same old product or service, penny stocks), buy them before they are well known, buy them slowly in stages a flat phase on chart,and then ride the momentum and bet big. and dont care about capital gains tax, sell up, when buyers dry up.!!


he also says only buy stocks from b boards where the chat is rare, debate is sensible and euphoria doesnt exist, and there isnt a huge battle/arguement of bears and bulls on the same stock debating it out.


he does explain its all a game for wall street and most fund managers in very well known stocks.

the other book stan weinsteins secrets for profiting in bull and bear markets, is wiser,(wont make you a millionarie in a year type book, but will help you gain more often, and lose less and beat the index) a good book to use with fundamentals.

you then realise just cos a company is good doesnt mean folk will buy it and when they do they buy it in droves, but in cycles, peaks and troughs.

he points out your sipp should be for "safer" longterm growth funds/trusts, but if you have time every day for study,, buy some individual stocks in a share account.

you need to realise that funds/trusts cant go to 100% cash, never,buffet cant, baillie gifford cant, but you can as a pi.

and to do that if a pending bear market or the 200 day trend or even the 50 day trend in the trust/fund is broken, then there is nothing wrong with selling up , even if its for a few weeks, months, maybe even years!!

because CASH is also a POSITION.

Buy and hold and hope, isnt a position regardless how good the stock/trust/fund design is!!

sometimes mr market doesnt think straight and hence dont be a hero and hold when everyone else is selling, imo

cos the funds/trusts have major problems exiting a position holdings £ millions.

on a side note in the baille website, james anderson of SMT wrote an article lately saying he sees unlisted private stocks in china as the next best thing and admits, we are due for a pullback in this long bull market.But i agree with him saying older industries will decline in the future, traditional banks, drug companies, staples, high street shops.

I also disagree up to a point,why, cos some bull markets can last 20 yrs, and unless interest rates hit 6%, stocks are the only best place for returns.

also, according to the recent book zero to one,by Peter Thiel, (paypal founder)the author says we all believe china will be the next big economy, due to its relative growth speed and potential market size with huge population,

But, he states that china is simply copying ideas from the usa from its past, not building any new inventions/products,, trying to make all its citizens rich, which it cant do as china is a huge selection of both mega rich and mega poor.

the united states isnt that socially or financially divided.In china he states, the rich are moving their money out of the country into places and assets such as the usa,and the poor and simply hoarding cash and hoping for the best.

IMO, private USA unlisted future unicorns in this trust are where the longterm exponetial gains will be from.

PS this chatroom is very quiet, except me, lol, so the trust is obviousl unknown to the average pi, so who is doing all the buying of hundreds of thousands of pounds, and the £4.5 million the other day.

obviously either institutes, insiders or very rich investors that dont chat on chatrooms.!!

we can only hope they are long term buyers and realise that stocks in particular private ones take time to grow!!

[nocrapversion4] 15/6/2018 12:15

here is free download of a 250 page book i fancy from amazon,its costs over £20

interesting book, basically, it says trade the biggest reward stocks, buy when noone knows about them, and you expect some big news to occur and bet heavily with leverage., dont day trade, hold longtime( months, as the author is a trader) for winners.

www.scribd.com/document/190356541/SuperStocks

insiderbuy superstocks

of course its methods wouldnt be allowed for a fund manager, but closest person that would do it is george soros. making big bets if you think the reward is huge.

the author of the book doesnt follow momentum investing, as looking for the uptrend, he is allbout taking a huge position and waiting for the masssive stock price explosion if he is correct..

what can we use this to the trust, i feel that the trust is still a unknow trust, so folk waiting on sideline with cash looking imo, and waiting, also the truat does make concentrated holdings of high risk/high reward stocks also, obvioulsy not as extreme as the book author.and the trust doesnt day trade, it holds longterm winners.

i suppose the book author waits for maximum pessimism then places trade, eg he would have placed 90% of his wealth when amazon feel 80% back in 2002 and the crowd were against all internet stocks.imo.

the author explains the general public are scared of losing money, and go for steady eddie stocks, even if the upside could be 10 to one on a higher risk stock.

that is why the average investor takes years to make just avergage money in average stocks.

worlds billionaires made big money in taking well researched bets, either in companies that they owned or companies they had shares in.imo.


Within this trust as they say, is prepared to invest up to 50% in private unicorn potential stocks, then im happy for them to do that.

[nocrapversion4] 15/6/2018 11:31

quick reminder why the trust is buying private stocks,

private stocks made up only 4% of the total us stock market but it was the 4% outstanding companies that made $35 trillion value.

magazine.bailliegifford.com/Trust36/charting-long-term-growth/

and a more detailed report


www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/an-analysis-of-trends-in-the-us-capital-markets/$FILE/ey-an-analysis-of-trends-in-the-us-capital-markets.pdf

and

csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Bessembinder-Do-Stocks-Outperform-Treasury-Bills.pdf

[nocrapversion4] 15/6/2018 08:42

another couple of thoughts, that lead to diff thinking,

one, that value and growth investing are different, not according to the books i recently read, it seems the amatuers say a stock is "cheap" hence it is value and a manager styles his fund based on that and vice versa for a growth stock.In order to attract certain investors.

but not true a stock maybe cheap RELATIVELY speaking cos the prospects of the company are dire and growth stock again may appear expensive but it isnt.

this is cos most amatuers both the PI and fund manangers decide the price based on price to earnings ratio,or book value they dont dig deeper.

they need to work out future cash flow and discount it back to current value to decide if the price is fair.

And the skill , style, integrity, future thinking, innovative management have a value that a calculator or algorithm can never include.which takes us to this trust, who say that they look for these qualites before they buy a stock.

it was found out that certain stocks that appear expensive, some future monopolies in the waitng had suprised investors by their huge earnings that the current "expensive" price was still very reasonable, where as most VALUE investors wouldnt buy in and instead went for low p/e junk stocks, in old industries.

but this wasnt internet bubble calculations or the year 2000 nonsense stocks where companies were making huge losses on pipe dreams, this is current outstanding stocks like google.


second point is it appears google is not a monopoly in one sense but in another it is.

yes it is top search engine, but when you consider it is a combination of many business parts, advertising, AI,tech, it is still a small fish in a big pond, eg it only generates 3% of all the money generated by total marketplace technology stocks, so does Amazon, it only generates 15% of the online marketplace.amazon does other things such as healthcare, food and web services.

so when folks say, its a megacap stock, it cant go higher, yes it could, as it has a small finger in lots of world pies so to speak, interesting .

maybe baillie gifford should call this trust, "outside the box thinking growth trust"

[nocrapversion4] 14/6/2018 14:30

again in the book the Buffett portfolio, the current investing market is all about volatility, joe public investor hates it.

buffett says that isnt risk, risk is the the complete loss of your capital, eg a stock goes bust, or the how vunerable a company's future is, or have you overpaid for a stock or have you invested too much% in one of these types of stocks relatively speaking.

that is risk according to him.

so what to do with this trust, as it isnt a dividend paying trust, its not for income and its share price will fluctuate, so its for longterm holders that dont need to sell to pay lifes daily bills, eg those not retired or needing money today.

solution for those who may even be retired, and i dont like dividend stocks,as buffett says a company that makes too much money and doesnt know what to do with it should give it back in dividends, but the shareholder should then take these and invest that money into growing stocks.

IMO, its all about having a cash float, that you access when this trust may be up or down in the future, and it may be down some years, but that is individual years,and individual years after 5 to 10 yrs mark, but imo still ahead after 5 to 10 yrs in total compared to the index benchmark.

with this cash float you pay your bills,and avoiding selling shares when down years, 18 months to 3 yrs IMO. forget the live of dividends nonsense, as you will die leaving most of your capital behind.

that also puts the nonsense that IFA's say you need such and such amount when retired, wrong, they think of living of dividends only and dividend stocks are mega overpriced and IMO old fashioned industries.


YOU NEED LESS GRAND TOTAL. why???

you want to spend both shares and dividends if you drawdown(thats what shares are for, for selling and turning them into ready cash to pay bills.)( and drawdown your cash float if trust is down some years)(but top it up when trust has recovered to keep that all important float always present).


and the day annuites give 15% a year return on investment, i'll have one of those instead !!!!
all IMO.

PS, the statement made by Buffett recently about his widow is to invest her inheritance in 90% in an index and 10% in shorterm gov bonds is misleading , WHY.

cos it doesnt mention how much that is in £'s.

if you need £15000min a year and you have say £1 million total and are aged 65, you could go total cash and live happily

but if you are 65 and only have say £100000 and go 90% stocks and 10% bonds, then if the market is down, your 10% bonds will not be enought to pay your bills, ( that gets me back to the 18 months to 3 yrs cash float, you need)

forget %'s, if you need £15000 min a year, then keep £22500 to £45000 in cash) then rest in stocks.

buffett widow will prob receive $450 -$600 million ( he is giving away 99% of his wealth.)

she doesnt need 90/10 split, she could be mega happy 100% cash.( or 99.9% stocks, 0.1% bonds)

a famous fund manager said when questioned what portfolio advice would you give to your child if they inherited £5 million,

he said forget stocks, forget investing ,the child would be able to live very happily in £5 million cash !!!!!!!!!!!