Baillie Gifford Us Growth Share Discussion Threads

[nocrapversion4] 02/6/2018 08:06

hxxps://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=967113064118005125115099003106027122030015030047000031018016078096021066028001001106026119119003010032035025084018019107006067121007043047074113002121028036077016073068064031086095021010087001007073001031121083112025121092120030024116094022&EXT=pdf

here is the report that the trust refers to in its prospectus, its in the BG website,that the gains of the us stock market was due to only 4% of the companies in the index.these exceptional stocks are listed in the report.eg exxon mobile,IBM, altria group,, apple, microsoft, wallmart, amazon,johnson and johnson

the summary is that unless you are a skilled stock picker, you will fail, if you only hold a few stocks that you picked yourself,instead of an index tracker, then you will more than likely miss these super stocks.

thus you have 2 choice, imo

1. buy a s&p500 tracker and own all the stocks. and generate slightly postive results over the longterm. compared to treasuries.

2, employ active managers in a trust/fund that have the skill to find these super stocks.but they must not underdiversify, incase they miss some of them.

[luckymouse] 01/6/2018 21:12

Nice one NCV

[nocrapversion4] 31/5/2018 00:47

hxxp://www.freeinvestmentadvice.org/research/general/Common-Stocks/Common-Stocks-Uncommon-Profits.php

here's those 15 points again, but in more detail, this is well worth a read !

[nocrapversion4] 30/5/2018 12:52

scuttlebutt.!!!! explaination., Fishers word

fisher says folk try to find out all they can about a stock, before they buy, just like me or you do, articles on the web etc. but he says you have to go beyond that and visit the premises, talk to the management.

something me or you cant do. if you watch one of the videos of the presentations and aim of this trust on baillie gifford website you will see, one of the managers, Helen Xiong, explain the same theory that they look for information from unique sources, beyond the normal convention and that will include looking at the values, visions and attitiudes of the CEOs of these stocks. and by meeting them in person and questioning them.


"Fisher didn’t have the internet to make his work easier, but even if he lived today, I doubt he would be sitting behind his computer reading news and articles solely as his main source of information.

He’d he out on the streets visiting companies, making calls, talking with management and reading books or textbooks on industries he is interested in".

PS forgive me if i made a few posts recently, its i expect this chatroom to be a lonely place, lol, why cos the gambers will be on aim nanocaps trying to pump n dump imo, as for them, investing is a quick fix hobby, actually gambling,day trading and manipulating as they need an attachment, a place to go, to accesories their hobby, which is a CHATROOM.

in the same way folk that do rambling seem to need expensive walkling poles, i live in the countryside and laugh at them under my breath,

some hobbies, just need the simplest of things, investing should be boring,

I mean some aim stocks ceos actually read these chatrooms !!!
the day Tom burnett or james anderson, waste their time ever reply on a chatroom will be the day hell freezes over. lol. some ramper/manipulator. will tell james anderson or tom or helen, to take his personal £27 mill invested back to his chip shop bedsit in Bolton !!!



but chatrooms and wall street and CNBC make it "exciting" lol.


pps, look at point 5 of the 15 points by fisher, this is my pet hate by folk on nanocaps./microcaps on chatrooms, they say look profit has went up 100% this year, eg revenue say £100 mill profit, £2 mill, this year £4 mill. wow.

then they say that justifies a 100% rise in share price,if they do that next year, and beyond the share price will rise 100% every year, NO it does not.

if a stock makes £100 mill in revenue and £40 mill in profit, then next year £50 mill in profit, then GIVE me that stock every day!!!


one reason tobacco stocks had 23000% share price rises since 1980, until recently, huge profit margin !!!

IMO if you want to turn £150000 into say £800000 over the years via compounding, own a unique trust that owns both private unicorns and bigger listed amazing companies and HOLD IT long term.

If you want to turn £2000 into £4000 then to £3000 then £8000, then £4000, then £2000, via playing, trading and gambling on Aim nano/microcaps but not via compounding, then go ahead.!

bye. take care.

[nocrapversion4] 30/5/2018 12:30

I believe this us growth trust are following the principles of Philip Arthur Fisher, growth investor many decades ago,who wrote the book common stocks and uncommon profits, i willprob buythe book and report back.

anyway it seems value investing isnt the way and Philip has 15 points that he uses before he buys and hold a great growth stock and potentially never sells it.

(note this isnt the same as buying internet stocks with no earnings, profits or revenue that caused the internet bubble) these are real great stocks with potential monopolies.


have a look at this link.

or google some on the book and the investor.

a you tube quick answer





hxxps://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/investing-perspective/15-points-to-look-for-in-a-common-stock/


"The fact that accounting can’t easily identify business headwinds was a reason he didn’t like the idea of cheap stocks."

thus its the potential huge future of the product/service and the skill and longterm thinking of the management imo are very important or more important than the balance sheet, hence value investing doesnt tell the whole true story of a company.

so it appears Buffett is no long a value investor, he may have been in the past,

why, so he can buy either the whole company outright or be on the board and push/organise change of poorly performing value stock.

he doesnt do that today, he looks for strong companies, he didnt wait for apple to become a value, loss making company before he bought in.

[nocrapversion4] 30/5/2018 12:19

hxxps://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/busting-the-investing-myth-that-you-must-always-buy-low-in-stocks/

interesting at thats james andersons theory in scottish mortgage investment trust, you can buy high and sell higher, quality stocks deserve quality prices.(the same principles imo of this trust, especially with the lsited ones, even tho some have high p/e ratios)

there are some folks out there still waiting since 1997 for Amazon stock to drop , so they can buy in, thats been a 20 year wait lol.

but those that go for the dirt cheap shares are dirt cheap for a good reason and that is why the market doesnt want to buy that stocks.

hxxps://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/crushing-the-investing-myth-of-its-ok-to-buy-on-the-dips/

and dont average down on a single stock, as once its peaked, the excitment, catalyst, maybe gone and folk may move on to a fresh stock ??

but you can average down (pound cost average,long term gradual buying )on an index or trust, folk will be buying in for years and years?

how many times have you seen it in a chatroom a post, "this stock has fallen , yet the market is up ,why"

cos an individual stock has peaks, events, catalysts that drive it , then theyre gone,

but, the general market is a long , long term buying process IMO, different beast.

interesting.

[foot in mouth] 29/5/2018 18:59

Very useful, thanks!

[nocrapversion4] 28/5/2018 09:15

why you should avoid aim listed penny stocks buy and holds, scams and the manipulation.


hxxps://www.investopedia.com/updates/penny-stocks-risks-rewards/



why you should own unlisted stocks instead.

hxxps://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/11/investing-in-private-companies.asp

Overall, it is important to reiterate that private companies are not liquid and require very long investing time frames. Most investors will need an eventual liquidity event to cash out. This includes when the company goes public, buys out private shareholders, or is bought out by a rival or another private equity firm. And just like with any security, private companies need to be valued to determine if they are fairly valued, overvalued or undervalued.

It is also important to note that investing directly in private firms is usually reserved for wealthy individuals. The motivation is that they can handle the additional illiquidity and risk that goes with private investing. The SEC definition calls these wealthy individuals accredited investors or qualified institutional buyers (QIB) when it is an institution.

investopedia, a very good site imo.

another good site, imo.


hxxps://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/busting-the-investing-myth-that-penny-stocks-can-lead-to-marvelous-riches/

note, where are the most posters on chatrooms, ???

ftse100 stocks, or aim nanocaps??

easy answer, highlights the type of folk that own these and why.

mainly cos, ftse100 are owned by due diligence instititutes, aim nanocpas arent, and are exciting could be, what if stocks, that pumpers target to offload on any spikes as often as the excitement lasts.

seen it before, cloudtag, bahamas oil, ukog, frontera resources,blockchain,advanced oncotherapy,sound energy.

these stocks can have no sales, profits, but have a great story, traders buy in on such a tiny free float, and sheep follow, spiking the sp, traders sell up, price collapses.

these stocks dont hold steady rises, cos of the small free float, the frequent dilution,the temporary excitement, too many short term traders and no longterm buy and hold insitiutes.imo.

[nocrapversion4] 27/5/2018 23:07

why we like closed ended investment trusts, compared to bog standard open ended unit trusts funds

[nocrapversion4] 27/5/2018 17:02

any easy way to find out if most investors(traders, hypers, manipulators,stock addicts, dreamers,gamblers) on b boards are indeed knowledgable and dedicated longterm investors ( more than a week in any one stock lol)is to go onto any very busy nanocap board chatroom( pick one where they use the words, choo, choo,kerching, big buyer in the waiting, someone in the city knows something, takeover portential, whoop, whoop, )

and ask the question,


"what do folk on here think of Abiomed's products previous growth in earnings and its future"


and watch the response, have fun!!!

excpect to get sworn at, blocked, filtered, asked who the hell is abiomed, asked will it be a 100 bagger like this oil spec stock in deepest africa,and many other silly questions.

lol

ps its $392 a share,that is what scares these guys they would rather own amillion shares of something at 1p a share than a few dozen of something costing hundreds, it is what seperates the men from the boys,

the amatuers from the experienced imo.

its to do with with psychology, why they buy miions of junk, rather than a hadfull of quality.

something to do with bragging about the amount of stock held , i am led to believe, to their peers.

even this stock at £1.15 is far too dear for them lol.

now if it was 0.15p, they would buy it in droves.!!

[nocrapversion4] 27/5/2018 16:16

hi foot in mouth this is a trust not a fund, way way big difference, try youtube and key in why trusts are better than funds,

yes tbh, done most of my research away from b boards, yes on some small stocks there are some wise folk on chatrooms, but at end of day, ask yourself where do the very rich, make their money???

b board aim listed nanocaps hype pumps, no, ftse trackers, no,

pre ipo unlisted stocks investors , yes, or become company owners, yes,

how do they keep their money, via hedge funds,once they have sold their businesses or their ipo shares.

ive done the own 2 or 3 stocks only , it can be very very high risk doing that.( no way 33% in an unlisted, maybe 33% in amazon yes)

i like the idea of owning not a huge amount, but more than 3 stocks, but its the proportion you own, eg say 2% in a stock that can go up 30 times, or 10% in one that can double.

im finding all the well known stocks out there are well priced in, and all the listed ones that noones knows about are rubbish or pumped and dumped.


also the unkown good growth stocks maybe in china, japan or more than likely the usa, i dont have the means to research these stocks fully, thus with the trust can by visiting them in person. joe average just picks a uk aim stock to try and make their fortune in!!

show me a UK aim listed stock that has anywhere near the potential a young amazon, illumina, google, tesla has/had.


tbh im seeing things diff now , via the unlisted stocks. but if i could go for it big time, i would own say 10 unlisted (not nanocps tho)that are trully changing the world with their new product/service and just go for it, but baillie gifford cant just own 10 unlisted and go for it, they have rules to follow based on risks and and investing guidelines.

my biggest disgust is folk pumping mining/oil nanocaps that have no sales or findings, as they are pumped by what they could be???, that is selling a stock to the next excited person, to sell to the next excited person, eg conning them whilst they sell up in the rise.

the trust, yes looks at the futre potential of companies, but doesnt say look if this stock finds oil, gas, diamonds its share price will go up, the trust doesnt own mining spec stocks, but newbies do and try make money on hype shortterm.the truth of these could be/may be type stocks will all come out in the wash eventually imo.


in the trust marketaxess and abiomed are looking very good longterm, imo.

i like SMT,but it has been discovered and its getting very big now and have a lot of megacaps plus unlisted tho also.

and may in the future have less room to grow, like the buffett problem now.but usa growth trust is new, hence its just the beginning imo.

the us growth trust really only owns one mega cap amazon, which i think it will hold for 5 years min, but it holds not so larger caps, like abiomed.

but i feel too many folk think oh look theres a £50 mill stock on aim, hence it must rise, NO it wont it will only rise on two things, higher earnings growth and /or hype.
but the truth will come out in the near futurein these stocks.

thats why i feel there are really only two choices, either proven largeish caps,eg abiomed, illumina that can still grow for years, maybe 4 or 5 bag.

or buy unlisted unicorns that are proving their worth and their target market with true profit growth, that can be come 20 baggers.eg go from £500 mill to £10 billion, may take 7 years plus, so be it.

finally most b board chatters go on about funds are rubbish, and just own a few mega bagger aim stocks, that is misleading, why,

cos they tarnish funds as the same as trackers,or trusts, yes most funds closet trckers in disguise and trackers will never make you rich, unless you live to a 100 and started at 18.but trusts that dont clsoet hug, and can leverage, funds, trackers cant, and can access unlisted unicorns, are a diff thing all together.this trust is a very high active share eg very dif f tot he tracker and very low turnover, eg it buys and holds.

also they say own a few aim nanocaps and make money, no no, as these are just hype stocks where most folk can only buy and sell a few £thousand at most, these stocks will spike or collapse if any proper investor or fund tries to invest or withdraw £ hundred of thousands or £ millions.

trust /fund managers try and avoid moving a stock with their purchases or withdrawal,ps , the nasty ones forward sell or their friends the market makers let them in via tricks, shafting the pi. imo.

so the pi jsut tries to do the same thing by targetting nanocap hype stocks, buying and selling on spikes and throughs caused by them.

but this never allows them to compound ALL their money imo or allows to compound large sums,this is just traders, rampers and gamblers playing stocks and shares with their couple of grand, hoping to manipulate a nanocap.it isnt poper wealthy investors COMPOUNDING in great compnaies for years and years with a huge amount of money.

but if a trust owns unlisted and buys a set amount of stock and then holds them for years as they are so illiquid, they only make money on the IPO date, that is fine and combining this with larger good growth liquid stocks makes it a good combination imo.

[foot in mouth] 27/5/2018 13:07

Hi ncv4, good summary/thought process around what you see as one of the big pictures of investing. I've made a decent pile over the last few years and this is my first foray into a fund. It is my attempt to de-risk my portfolio a bit as i normally only hold 2-3 stocks at any one time!!Besides this fund are there any other that have caught your eye? I'm impressed by what i see in BG.

[nocrapversion4] 27/5/2018 11:10

I recommend any investor here logs on to Baillie gifford website and reads EVERY article in the intellectual capital section.

I also think investors should take note of the very important key fact that this trust is closed ended and will own alot of unlisted stocks, unlisted should only be held in closed ended trusts not opended funds,imo

as it avoids a sell off off of underlying holdings,,( it shouldnt happen anyway ,as it isnt a income type trust and it is stated this is a hold for min 5 yrs and (unless interest rates go to 10% making cash more attractive, !! than stocks) as trusts have a NAV but dont have to sell holdings, (woodfords big error IMO, having unlisted in a divided income open ended fund where he has to sell holdings, when folk ran for the hills, impatient and pensioners that need steady income))

my point is i read that the very very wealthly, eg the sophisticated investor makes larger returns than average joe cos they get access to investments average joe doesnt, why , cos these are seen as much higher risk, but huge potential, what are these?

these are pre IPO, unlisted stocks,venture capitalist tiny stocks, and are usually loss making ,poorly funded in balance sheet, nanocaps that can go bankrupt and have wierd products or services, like airport luggage delivery or some crazy idea!!( you also have to prove you are an accredited, sophisticated investor) you dont with this trust even though as it is higher risk, than say a tracker,but not mega high risk,such as the sophisticated investor venture capitalists trusts, but still can produce very worthy gains via a longterm hold imo

unlisted stocks , ones preferably that are actually generating income with huge target markets are how the smartest invest, the founders of these stocks allocated themselves shares and allocate rich investors these shares also to own cheaply, when say 5 to 7 yrs later min they ipo, it is the joe public that does the buying,with much lower upside at that point, whist the rich investors and company directors that do the selling to joe.

now this trust isnt targeting those nanocap,types it will target unlisted companies that already are growing, not 2 men in a shed,but it will be eg at around min $500 mill cap as stated in the prospectus( not some £2 mill crazy unlisted stocks in oxford)but mostly in the san fransisco area imo,. that can IPO at say $10, 15 or even $50 bill

if you google the most common jobs in usa you will see the san fran area is home to computer programmers, however i think this trust will target healthcare technologies in the future, thats where the growth is imo, using computing in healthcare.

it knows the listed dying stocks are stocks like tobacco and heavy engineering,to avoid all old school but it is not targeting internet bubble.com type stocks with no earnings and $1 bill caps with no earnings, that is a nono, they target profitable stocks.with realistic futures

the average investor looks at the price of a stock and the p/e,(plus is it also a hot chatroom stock) then decides to buy in,( fast way IMO to turn £1000 into £3000, if your fast in the 1week pump n dump or 3 month stock promotion farce) but not a great way and an impossible way to turn £100000 into say £500000 and KEEP those gains long term for your pension decumulation period)

the wiser rich dont, they look at the future size of target market of the stock, debt levels,the laws, trends, implications, that could make or break the stock, plus the attitute of the ceo, is he/she longterm, does he/she have huge skin in the game?(is it also unlisted)

that is how alot of folk never bought apple,amazon, google yrs ago, they didnt think years ahead.and that is why alot of folk wrongly buy average joe AIM listed penny stocks, i mean a penny on aim with the intention to sell up once it hits 5p (via a quick stock ramp)and dump it,that is if they can actually sell up on that precise hour/day, plus even if it has no earnings, high debt, ceo has no skin in the game etc, with their £1000 holding(NOT exactly compounding hundreds of thousands of pounds are they?)

now baillie gifford will add low interest leverage in due course, Buffett always added free leverage, clever man,which they will do,as they state, this will imo make it grow faster than equivalent american fund , plus better long term prospects with the unlisted stocks, yes higher risk, but the risk is exponetial and that imo is the secret to how the wealthy get even wealthier imo.

they place small amounts to get huge returns.exponetial risk take.

average joe owns a ftse 100 or 250 tracker and/or buys listed aim penny stocks of 2 men in a shed which is pump n dumped or short term promoted.

ps i am considering myself never to own a tracker or any aim stocks ever again.!!yes i have done, but experience and education in investing is a wonderfull thing.

i also understand the the directors/owners of baillie gifford will always make the most money here, i have no jealousy, thats the perks of using a lot of investors pooled money,and taking in set commission, ( the owners will also place £20 mill of their own money in the trust!!!!!) .If you are jealous, then try starting your own investment broker house !!!

thats what buffett did, he took the paid upfront customer payments of GEICO insurance company he owns and invested that free money as free leverage into stocks, buffett is still well respected and noone say "hey you made huge money out of our upfront commissions!)

baillie gifford have access to unlisted companies that i do not have and very low interest rate leverage and a cummulative team of trusted researchers, that i dont also have..

i also expect not to see chat on here about look its went up 5% or its went down 5%.

i expect to see chat about the stocks that it holds and the prospects, uniqueness, of these stocks as that is far better and that is what makes a company a great longterm company , not look its share price went up or down daily, weekly, monthly.


i think those that own this trust are different breed of the regular, chatroom stock owners.this chatroom will never ever get 500 posts a day, ever!! IMO.


And currently waiting for the trust to publically list what their first unlisted stock is that they bought into recently.if they will do that.

[nocrapversion4] 21/5/2018 18:45

even buffett lost money in a bear market, why did he lose, cos he cant sell say $150 billion worth of shares in a day, so he has to hang on and drop 30 plus %. and try recover, but he uses his dividends.

but a pi can get out within days, if the market goes down, not volatility down, but a true recession, as the aver pi holds £thousands not £billions.

But what the ave pi does wrong is load up on one stock or two only and when those stocks have a scandal or something big bad news it wrecks the pis portfolio, which the general market can still be in a bull run. but those few concentrated wrong stocks ruins it all for the novice pi. imo..

baillie gifford expects some wrong shock stocks, but its other good ones overcome that disaster.

[nocrapversion4] 21/5/2018 10:45

agreed lucky mouse, who wants a portfolio that goes 7 steps forward 5 steps back, id rather go 5 steps forward, 1 step back.

low beta outperforms high beta

[nocrapversion4] 21/5/2018 10:40

at the end of the day we are in a bull market, interest rates are very low, shares is the only place to make money, and usa is where the best companies in the world come from.

for me i will own this until the bull market stops, at one stage interest rates were kept low for 17 years back in the 80s.
pension managers say own bonds also, yes that fine if you want to lock in your portfolio and never look at it again,

but as pi, we can go to cash far faster than these traget date investors if we monitor news about the investing world very often.

and its far easier to sell thousands of pounds in a trade for a pi than it is for your big pension company to do it to sell £billions over months if they get spooked..

what im after is very low volatility with leverage applied, which this trust will have imo.

[foot in mouth] 20/5/2018 13:16

I guess the recent increase in NAV of this fund is due to currency movements rather than stellar performance by the fund manager?

[luckymouse] 18/5/2018 16:45

Most ITs are Profit warning free & small cap manipulation free

[nocrapversion4] 15/5/2018 08:38

i also feel as this trust is moslty owned by institutes who analyse before they buy millions of pounds, then the small pi here on this board has no influence on a penny stock pump n dump, which is good as there are too many con artists out there onthese boards.


hence this chat is for intelligent share discussion, we will never see a whoop, whoop, nonsense ever here imo, which is good.

is amazing the fools that are taking in by the whoops, kerchings on these boards,

so sad to see them easily misled.


and the more an institute owns a stock they less they take notice of pump and dumpers.

we know baille gifford has over 1000 staff, most in edinburgh and looks after £172 billion for investors.thats confidence, is it not.

[nocrapversion4] 13/5/2018 21:51

agreed, read the coffee can portfolio.

its about having a concentrated portfolio, leaving it for 10 yrs, and if one of those stocks is a multibagger unicorn, your overall performance is increased by lots.

[luckymouse] 13/5/2018 13:10

With VC/unlisted i guess they are trying to catching a 100 bagger

[nocrapversion4] 13/5/2018 11:14

euclid5

"For every Uber there are 50 failures, don't forget that"

yes agree with that, but its amatuer pi investors that buy up these stocks by the dozen, mostly on the AIM market.the nanocap listed ones that come begging for money on AIM with their crazy products and solutions that wont ever become monopolies..

i dont expect baillie gifford to only have one success out of 50 unlisted.

they may have some failures, they admit that, but i expect their winnners to losers to out number.

as they arent pi amatuers sat at home,buying any old junk on the AIM market, they have more access to research to these unlited unicorns than we will ever have, imo.

[nocrapversion4] 12/5/2018 23:57

finding great stocks is prob harder in the first place than the actual questioning the quality/potential of the said stocks once found.

i dont have the means to visit companies in the states to scrutinise their accounts, motives, ambitions, usp's, ceos.

the trust can and will, they also are using big data to find these stocks, screening them on certain parameters, and rejecting those that dont fit the bill.

once they have got a list of companies, thats when the trust does its digging into those stocks, via visits to the companies, something me or you cant do.imo