Baillie Gifford Us Growth Share Discussion Threads

[ben gunn] 26/7/2006 12:28

First shock this morning was that the FT's first section was only 14 pages long. This is a new all time low and reflects very low paper based financial advertising activity and a brutally weakening economy going forward.
Second shock was that after 3 basis points rise in UK 10 year yields yesterday they are up another 6 points today to 4.69%. I dont anticipate them rising above 4.85% by 9th August but we shall see what we shall see. European bonds are weak across all timelines as German confidence is high and US bonds are due another shove upwards on 9th August.
(Evening Update: apparently the beig book from the Fed indicated that US growth is already slowing down in 6 of the 12 states covered so US yields slipped back to reflect a 47% liklihood of an August interest rate rise. US interest rates are now inverted but just for the first 5 years. UK 10 year rates slipped back to 4.65%)

Despite recent strength equities are not a buy until we have a substantial NAS rise back above 2200. Interesting if NAS closes above 2171 and threatens 2200.

[ben gunn] 23/7/2006 12:16

Weekend of 22nd July
A tricky week as Europe and UK were barely changed whereas the world index fell 0.9% led by falls in US,1.3%, Japan 1.3%, and Asia 1.1%. Without the falls in Oils and Natural resources within the Uk the FTSE 100 would have shown a significant rise.

Given that the UK and Europe both fell over 3% in the previous week we can dismiss the apparent strength as countreaction to the very brutal falls as the Middle Eastern violence erupted.

Japan did raise its interest rates and this partly explains why Japan is off 11% year to date whereas the world is only off 5%. London based commentators are nervously challenging whether this downturn is a blip rather than a new short term or medium term downtrend. They are comforted by the UK still being up 3% YTD (and Europe up 2%) with UK bonds continuing soft (but with index linked and some other bonds giving weak buy signals).

[ben gunn] 15/7/2006 16:54

The Citywire fundmanager survey conducted from 12 to 19 June has just been published. Contrarians may be pleased to see that 78% of managers expect equities to outperform bonds.

[ben gunn] 15/7/2006 16:13

Well, the Middle East crisis has pushed the Dow not just below 10880 but actually below 10780 on Friday. The 3 sharp days of falls were very smooth so no major correction is excected on Monday or Tuesday.

The Bond BUY signal has now arrived earlier than expected and with the Gold and Oil buy signals weakening it is reasonable to go for a less extreme asset allocation. Thus we can drop Gold Oil and cash for: Bonds and cash plus significant bits of gold and oil. Equities are a screaming sell particularly in the Uk where the falls have a bit of catching up to do to mirror the USA.

Given that gold has recovered $100 in two weaks a pause for breath is only reasonable.

[ben gunn] 05/7/2006 18:07

It takes many views to make a market.....I'll keep digging just in case I find it.

[hectorp] 05/7/2006 11:30

well ben gunn, you should stick to your treasure chest.
And Mr Rooney and Mr Beckham are the only things thats 'comin' home'.

- IS the Dow about to fall back? I smell a July rally here. But I'll short if it falls below support. I'd short the FTSE at 5500. Its LONG way up from that now however.
US Currency.. it'll fall regardless. Inflation? significant, but not recession-making.
- If the US keep growing at only 1% ( its currently over 3%!) China and the Far East, Briszil and Russia still keep the world show on the road.

[ben gunn] 29/6/2006 12:49

29th June beckons as the Treasury decision and the treasury words are capable of some upset to the markets. Market has maintained its strength of recovery over the first 3 days of the week despite a 120 point fall on Tuesday.
So, market could be entered with a limit sell sbt at our trigger of 10880 (cash price for the index).
Today the DOW sits right on the edge of Sell and Dont Know territory whereas the NAS is still deeply into "Strong Sell" territory. Only a rise above 2141 would break this strong sell indication.

[ben gunn] 16/6/2006 15:00

Gold has stayed above water and is now moving up from the $560/$570 area.

The momentous 2 day recovery on WallStreet may now give us an opportunity to sell into gathering weakness so a small put option has been taken out in Sept 3i shares as a proxy for the FTSE 250.
Now that we are below 11000 again it is worth considering what continued weakness might do to all our equity holdings even the income, value and tiddly small ones.

Flash message from Mr R OONEY: "We expect Nuremburg to be our last rally, will keep shorts on for the next 3 weeks, Should be holding Gold by early July"

[ben gunn] 13/6/2006 13:17

Gold (Merrill Lynch Gold and General) only needs to fall a further 5% to give a sell signal at around 650p.....and with unit trust pricing one day in arrears this signal (and the crystallisation of considerable losses)is clearly a high probability since gold futures are off 3% this am.
Cash remains preferable to equities and today bond funds such as Old Mutual Corporate Bond are giving BUY signals for the first time in 3 weeks.
As the US is reporting Producer inflation as expected the bellwhether 10 year US treasury yields have fallen from 4.99% to 4.96%.
If that yield falls to 4.89% then we have a strong bond buy signal and the game enters a new phase where cash is not the only asset of choice.

[ben gunn] 05/6/2006 12:47

Stepped back in with NAS down positions on 26th which were wiped out by intraday levels on Friday 2nd June (early strength and "gap up" that failed later).

Position of equities now seems to be continued weakness and uncertainty until positive or negative news gets us off the fence. All assets from Property to High Yield bonds look overpriced so a buyers strike remains possible.
With high volatility and dangers inherent in sitting on a fence at the best of times all positions firmly closed and a lead will be sought from the contra indicator of US 10 Year treasury bond yield. When it reaches 4.88% bonds will be GO.

Gold positions are being maintained despite gruelling volatility as the US Dollar index fell last week from 91.9 to 90.7. At such a rate the dollar will approach confetti by Christmas.

[ben gunn] 23/5/2006 18:30

23rd May Update
Following the end of the Bull market on 17th May when the NAS actually did close below 2222 (34894 was an a.m. posting) three things have happened:
1) Emerging markets and far east have suffered from "safe haven instincts" which weirdly enough include buying the US dollar (short term) which rose.
Mind you it is quite normal for Wall Street and the dollar to go different ways
2) European investors strike on Monday 22nd May decimated markets...but this included at least a 20 point gap down in the NAS opening picture ( after further Far East wobbles as dawn rose in Europe) so this- for reasons too complex for me to fully grasp- sets up the need for a correction as did certain measures of being "oversold".
(My own reaction was to short UBS over the weekend "fortune favours the brave" and so Monday saw me with a £2,300 smile and a keenness to leave off trading until Friday when the newer US inflation data gets released and the whizkids get a possible new excuse to panic. Such panicking is quite reasonable given the bombshell that will fall if young Ben decides to go restrictive rather than neutral with interest rates (or even if either the European interest rates rise significantly or the threat implied by US trade imbalances worsens and "neutral" becomes a higher number than 5.25%)).
3) Tuesday 23rd: the gaps were "closed" with an extravegant recovery which categoricly marks this as a bear market since it implies a two day volatility over 10 times the normal level. Last call for sales...must look at Ameritrade US account. V. glad I stepped aside as DigitalInvestor rules allow only shorts during turmoil and shorts were burnt today.

[mikehardman] 19/4/2006 15:07

shame USA doesn't really follow AUR any more (AUR up 30% today (on no news))
- since it sold down to about a 3% holding

[Abuse team] 11/4/2006 20:27

Post removed by ADVFN

[ben gunn] 02/2/2006 16:45

Sorry, did I say months I meant weeks!

[ben gunn] 11/1/2006 14:13

2006
Did you know that New Star Technology is now a buy!!!!!
Mystic Meg might put it:
I see Icarus soaring above the earth for a strong but short flight,
followed by collapse, fall back into the sea and descent to the murky depths.
So buy all the small, eastern and tech stuff for a 3 to 5 month burst
then retreat to a well bonded tent.

[ben gunn] 19/10/2005 13:22

A word ...............to the wise

(Now I shall have to investigate how a couple of stop losses failed to be acted upon-Squaregain!)

[ben gunn] 21/9/2005 16:53

NAS is looking icky again after the Fed 1/4% Interest rate rise on 20th Sept ..............watch this space for the A word.

NAS has crashed through the 200 day moving average so set close trailing stop limits on all technology holdings and investigate Invesco Pep Global bonds etc.

[ben gunn] 21/3/2005 08:17

As per post 34885 above.
Now is the time to start shorting and selling. The 50 day moving average of the NASDAQ may fall through the 200 day moving average by the 10th May at which point shorting growth stocks will become a majority sport.
(I appreciate that the DOW and S&P are not showing this pattern yet but I expect leadership from the NAS and it is showing it as long as it stays below 2025. Rise above that and all bets are off)

17 May- reverse all of the above the NAS is powering up (but not strongly enough to go long until the 50 day is back above the 200 Day).

[marksp] 02/2/2005 16:40

Susan
The witholding tax is 20% but, which is offset against UK tax.
I have a TPIN from US so it doesn't really apply as i pay US tax too...HURRAH!!

M

[susan widdowson] 28/1/2005 12:28

Mark - If you reaf the messages on

there are one or two excellent posts which give an insight both into the company and dividend - unfortunatly I can't find out what tax would be withheld for a UK holder.

Being a yield junkie this is one I sall continue to watch and investigate.

[marksp] 27/1/2005 01:00

Susan
It is a REIT.
There is something odd about it, no mortgage simple mortgage lender can yield 9% and it has had a massive change in numbers over the last 3 years
given that the US market produces tiny divis, 9% is extraordinary
If you find out why please post

[tpaulbeaumont] 26/1/2005 14:50

ask your broker