Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Baillie Gifford Us Growth Trust Plc LSE:USA London Ordinary Share GB00BDFGHW41 ORD GBP0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.50 -0.37% 135.00 134.50 135.50 135.50 134.50 135.50 2,120,758 16:35:16
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments 0.7 -2.0 -1.1 - 329

Baillie Gifford Us Growth Share Discussion Threads

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Not so much a double top as a complete set of udders!
ben gunn
January quarterly profits from the USA were fully satisfactory and despite a severe hic-cup in the 3rd/4th week of January the equity markets are racing away. The Treasury has not spooked them, the continued collapse of housing has not spooked them but rising inflation might. Expect rises until 28th March. 10Year UK interest rate now firmly above 4.85% making bonds a clear sell for now. If I am cheeky I would point out that the second para. above predicted the UK's 3rd. interest rate rise in Jan. 07. I was busy over January switching the family resources out of the bond "safe haven!" back into equities such as Mears ROK and MCI. I also took out some more adventurous positions in PC Group, PMK and CSR (not to mention neteller now suspended so I wont). This means that after some missed oportunities in Oct and Dec that beta is again being generated and new highs are being seen weekly in most portfolios. For March (off for 9 days to ski in the ALPS) I expect more of the same and an even more top heavy index awaiting the April results when we shall see what we shall see.
ben gunn
19th December Uncertainty has bitten for 2 days as traders settle down to drink their bonuses in style. US bonds have held firm but in the UK 10 year bond yields have recovered from 4.48% to 4.71% as wage rises, tight skilled labour market and house price rises threaten the need for another 1/4% interest rate rise PDQ (although the majority of economists were not expecting it one month ago). Oddly US interest rates (5.25%) are above UK interest rates (5.0%) whereas the 10 year rates in the US are lower. One possible outturn will be a first fall in the US interest rates whilst a third rise in UK rates seems possible when more data is at hand. EU rates are also expected to continue to rise. Equity markets have been so strong with the UK up around 3% in the first half of December that a weakening into the holiday season is a reasonable expectation. As this will produce an apparent double top at the twin peaks of 16th Nov and 15th Dec 2006 every week that such a trend persists may give it more and more credibility. Tight stop losses are the order of the day together with a higher than usual emphasis on Europe ,Far East and BRIC markets. 5th Jan update: Strong US employment & wages data have sent US 10 year bond yields up to 4.68% and UK to 4.82%. Unusually, shares are also off as the recent collapse in commodity prices and further steep falls in oil prices have combined with Motorola's profit warning this a.m. (down 11%) to remind traders that we are less than 2 weeks from the January results season and the breathtaking quarterly profit reports may stop this quarter. (i.e. people may speculate to pre-empt a price fall following January Results). Expect no more than ruffled waters until Jan results are known.
ben gunn
The dollar has continued to surprise us on the upside and the 8th December employment figures were about as good as one could expect. During the autumn considerable conflict was seen in some of the data (partly owing to last year's hurricane's) but this has resolved into a "pretty rosy but economicly weak" picture going forward. For Wall Street this translates into a "soft landing" for companies and the economy and continued confidence. I now expect a strong week up to 15th December when the finance houses close their books followed by continued uncertainty. Bonds had a sticky October but I stood by my holdings and bonds are continuing to show weak, but positive, buy signals. I expect equity strength until 15th Dec and then uncertainty rules as poorer economic news sends the market down but expectation of sound recovery in late 2007 encourages further speculative buying. If the markets show a truely mixed reaction to economic news then the difference will be made on the downside by further political problems for Mr Bush. And, on the upside, by gentle winter weather in the US raising world stocks of oil and gas with implicit weakening fuel prices.
ben gunn
The last 2 weeks have seen a 2% plus gain in the NAS Comp to 2118 which is pretty healthy for a "Fluctuating pattern". The week closed, however, on a note of considerable weakness as the poor production figures from the US's rust belt area combined with signs of terminal decline in the US car industry slashed confidence. Bonds took the lead and yields tumbled remarkably strongly particularly over 10 years or more. This reflects the reduced prospect of further interest rate rises as only headline inflation may be pressing the Fed to consider further rate rises from a historicly high 5.25%. So I now expect the downward leg of fluctuations but no immediate clarity can be expected as it was only a quarter ago growth was hitting new highs and signals continue to conflict. Forecasters are aware of both the direct and indirect effects that the bursting of the property bubble in the US can produce in the coming months. The Dollar index, 92.6, will serve as our index of confidence going forwards and I expect it to fall at about 0.2% a week until mid October when the quarterly results from Wall Street will push it back up or increase the rate of decline. Friday saw solid gains in gold as well as bonds and the emerging markets are now hit below the waterline by the continued fall in metals and commodity prices.
ben gunn
The mixed news in the states over tech stocks performance, future interest rates and poor housing outlook has stopped the recent 2 month recovery stone dead. The fact that the DOW gapped down in 2 out of the 4 trading days adds to the uncertainty of the picture: For the next fortnight we could see a fluctuating pattern or a fall. The NAS's direction from today's 2160/2180 level will reveal which it is to be and as it falls back to significant cross over points the NAS could indicate down positions worth taking. NB The FT had an interesting article on the many reasons why the key US investment banks that report quarterly performance in OCT must show poor results year on year for the first time in ages. N.The DOW's possible failure to retake 11,400 today may look significant in the weeks to come.
ben gunn
Good news Weak buying signals for gilts are now in place alongside strong buying signals for index linked gilts. I shall wait until the 9th August decision is behind us but it is comforting to know that the bond market has finally made up its mind.
ben gunn
First shock this morning was that the FT's first section was only 14 pages long. This is a new all time low and reflects very low paper based financial advertising activity and a brutally weakening economy going forward. Second shock was that after 3 basis points rise in UK 10 year yields yesterday they are up another 6 points today to 4.69%. I dont anticipate them rising above 4.85% by 9th August but we shall see what we shall see. European bonds are weak across all timelines as German confidence is high and US bonds are due another shove upwards on 9th August. (Evening Update: apparently the beig book from the Fed indicated that US growth is already slowing down in 6 of the 12 states covered so US yields slipped back to reflect a 47% liklihood of an August interest rate rise. US interest rates are now inverted but just for the first 5 years. UK 10 year rates slipped back to 4.65%) Despite recent strength equities are not a buy until we have a substantial NAS rise back above 2200. Interesting if NAS closes above 2171 and threatens 2200.
ben gunn
Weekend of 22nd July A tricky week as Europe and UK were barely changed whereas the world index fell 0.9% led by falls in US,1.3%, Japan 1.3%, and Asia 1.1%. Without the falls in Oils and Natural resources within the Uk the FTSE 100 would have shown a significant rise. Given that the UK and Europe both fell over 3% in the previous week we can dismiss the apparent strength as countreaction to the very brutal falls as the Middle Eastern violence erupted. Japan did raise its interest rates and this partly explains why Japan is off 11% year to date whereas the world is only off 5%. London based commentators are nervously challenging whether this downturn is a blip rather than a new short term or medium term downtrend. They are comforted by the UK still being up 3% YTD (and Europe up 2%) with UK bonds continuing soft (but with index linked and some other bonds giving weak buy signals).
ben gunn
The Citywire fundmanager survey conducted from 12 to 19 June has just been published. Contrarians may be pleased to see that 78% of managers expect equities to outperform bonds.
ben gunn
Well, the Middle East crisis has pushed the Dow not just below 10880 but actually below 10780 on Friday. The 3 sharp days of falls were very smooth so no major correction is excected on Monday or Tuesday. The Bond BUY signal has now arrived earlier than expected and with the Gold and Oil buy signals weakening it is reasonable to go for a less extreme asset allocation. Thus we can drop Gold Oil and cash for: Bonds and cash plus significant bits of gold and oil. Equities are a screaming sell particularly in the Uk where the falls have a bit of catching up to do to mirror the USA. Given that gold has recovered $100 in two weaks a pause for breath is only reasonable.
ben gunn
It takes many views to make a market.....I'll keep digging just in case I find it.
ben gunn
well ben gunn, you should stick to your treasure chest. And Mr Rooney and Mr Beckham are the only things thats 'comin' home'. - IS the Dow about to fall back? I smell a July rally here. But I'll short if it falls below support. I'd short the FTSE at 5500. Its LONG way up from that now however. US Currency.. it'll fall regardless. Inflation? significant, but not recession-making. - If the US keep growing at only 1% ( its currently over 3%!) China and the Far East, Briszil and Russia still keep the world show on the road.
29th June beckons as the Treasury decision and the treasury words are capable of some upset to the markets. Market has maintained its strength of recovery over the first 3 days of the week despite a 120 point fall on Tuesday. So, market could be entered with a limit sell sbt at our trigger of 10880 (cash price for the index). Today the DOW sits right on the edge of Sell and Dont Know territory whereas the NAS is still deeply into "Strong Sell" territory. Only a rise above 2141 would break this strong sell indication.
ben gunn
Gold has stayed above water and is now moving up from the $560/$570 area. The momentous 2 day recovery on WallStreet may now give us an opportunity to sell into gathering weakness so a small put option has been taken out in Sept 3i shares as a proxy for the FTSE 250. Now that we are below 11000 again it is worth considering what continued weakness might do to all our equity holdings even the income, value and tiddly small ones. Flash message from Mr R OONEY: "We expect Nuremburg to be our last rally, will keep shorts on for the next 3 weeks, Should be holding Gold by early July"
ben gunn
Gold (Merrill Lynch Gold and General) only needs to fall a further 5% to give a sell signal at around 650p.....and with unit trust pricing one day in arrears this signal (and the crystallisation of considerable losses)is clearly a high probability since gold futures are off 3% this am. Cash remains preferable to equities and today bond funds such as Old Mutual Corporate Bond are giving BUY signals for the first time in 3 weeks. As the US is reporting Producer inflation as expected the bellwhether 10 year US treasury yields have fallen from 4.99% to 4.96%. If that yield falls to 4.89% then we have a strong bond buy signal and the game enters a new phase where cash is not the only asset of choice.
ben gunn
Stepped back in with NAS down positions on 26th which were wiped out by intraday levels on Friday 2nd June (early strength and "gap up" that failed later). Position of equities now seems to be continued weakness and uncertainty until positive or negative news gets us off the fence. All assets from Property to High Yield bonds look overpriced so a buyers strike remains possible. With high volatility and dangers inherent in sitting on a fence at the best of times all positions firmly closed and a lead will be sought from the contra indicator of US 10 Year treasury bond yield. When it reaches 4.88% bonds will be GO. Gold positions are being maintained despite gruelling volatility as the US Dollar index fell last week from 91.9 to 90.7. At such a rate the dollar will approach confetti by Christmas.
ben gunn
23rd May Update Following the end of the Bull market on 17th May when the NAS actually did close below 2222 (34894 was an a.m. posting) three things have happened: 1) Emerging markets and far east have suffered from "safe haven instincts" which weirdly enough include buying the US dollar (short term) which rose. Mind you it is quite normal for Wall Street and the dollar to go different ways 2) European investors strike on Monday 22nd May decimated markets...but this included at least a 20 point gap down in the NAS opening picture ( after further Far East wobbles as dawn rose in Europe) so this- for reasons too complex for me to fully grasp- sets up the need for a correction as did certain measures of being "oversold". (My own reaction was to short UBS over the weekend "fortune favours the brave" and so Monday saw me with a £2,300 smile and a keenness to leave off trading until Friday when the newer US inflation data gets released and the whizkids get a possible new excuse to panic. Such panicking is quite reasonable given the bombshell that will fall if young Ben decides to go restrictive rather than neutral with interest rates (or even if either the European interest rates rise significantly or the threat implied by US trade imbalances worsens and "neutral" becomes a higher number than 5.25%)). 3) Tuesday 23rd: the gaps were "closed" with an extravegant recovery which categoricly marks this as a bear market since it implies a two day volatility over 10 times the normal level. Last call for sales...must look at Ameritrade US account. V. glad I stepped aside as DigitalInvestor rules allow only shorts during turmoil and shorts were burnt today.
ben gunn
shame USA doesn't really follow AUR any more (AUR up 30% today (on no news)) - since it sold down to about a 3% holding
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Abuse team
Sorry, did I say months I meant weeks!
ben gunn
2006 Did you know that New Star Technology is now a buy!!!!! Mystic Meg might put it: I see Icarus soaring above the earth for a strong but short flight, followed by collapse, fall back into the sea and descent to the murky depths. So buy all the small, eastern and tech stuff for a 3 to 5 month burst then retreat to a well bonded tent.
ben gunn
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