Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[doobydave] 15/2/2005 13:01

You're welcome, bd. I spotted our emotionally incontinent friend throwing a tantrum at you on another thread as well. Embarrassing that he put 'welsh' in his name.
DD

[doobydave] 15/2/2005 08:41

The first time I have had cause to use the 'moderate' function, please note, for adolescent name-calling not contrarian thinking.
DD

[bionicdog] 15/2/2005 08:34

i admit it , i am not really a dog at all.

[bionicdog] 15/2/2005 08:25

can anybody guess who this rather modest post is by that i came across on another thread?

"I am not one to blow my own trumpet as a rule as you folks know by now, so I hope you remember me posting that I saw oil hitting around $57.50 and then falling back to $47.50 ....well this is what is taking shape as of now, but I think it will soon be trending lower to $40, terror and bow ups permitting"

remember , think modest.

[richgit] 11/2/2005 15:36

Mieke
you only have to look at WNL(valued at £100Million+)with NOTHING
more than £9 Million raised- to see what lunatics are out there.

Many of them buy on Monday and sell on Wednesday,thats why there is so much money to be made when the loons are out in force- most of which are totally
controlled by the expiration dates of their T+ trades.

[mieke] 11/2/2005 13:13

Gold looks to be on a much firmer footing these last 24 hours, helped I think also by the resurgence of the oil price (watch the oil price - we are closer to peak oil than many folk realise - it is THIS which will be the main driver of the gold price I believe as the ever increasing price of oil sets off inflation). and the response from joe Punter is? Apparently to sell AVM shares - quite a few medium sized sells today. Have these folk no imagination?

[yikyak] 11/2/2005 13:03

theberg

"Aren't the words "Friendly" and "Banker" together in the same sentence a contradiction in terms"?(;-)0

As a rule I would agree with you 100%, lol, however, this particular banker has been and remains extremely bullish on gold. This in itself seperates him from the typical banking crowd. He also happens to head up the European currency desk of one of the biggest banks worldwide and that means we have a friend of gold on the inside, that I like best of all. He believes $411 was probably the last flush out to catch the over leveraged positions and weak hands, if it is believed that any are left however they would like to se it forced down to $388 to test the water. That's my only problem with him is the fact that he doesn't care what direction it's going as long as his team are positioned correctly, fair enough but as a long I wish he would just keep buying.

He advises me just to hold and buy on any weakness, it's not if it's going up it's just a case of when. He doesn't do equities on behalf of the bank but when I asked him how it would play out he said it will probably look as though nothings happening and then it will be BANG BANG BANG and the pm's will go screaming up, you will need to be positioned already. Look out for the inflation figures from the Fed, it's down to when they decide to release the true picture as that flags up that we are all positioned to go.

On a related note he said that the US wanted a stronger dollar to sell to central banks, however, now that they have bought them up to their eyeballs they want to devalue the currency as much as possible to reverse the manufacturing advantage and reduce both public and private debt. Very clever he said but at the end of the day the dollar is a never ending product and the central banks that over exposed on the dollar got duped. He laughed at the UK for being the first to sell gold and the last to buy the dollar, some relationship.

The US now want gold to go up he said as this will flip the dollar over as an indication of inflation, the UK obviously want's exactly the opposite......who would you bet against he said?

[goml] 10/2/2005 22:30

Don't put up with unsightly zits. New "Oxymoron" TM will get rid of them.

[pecker1] 10/2/2005 17:58

Just wish they had made a start, however small, on getting rid of their hedge during this recent weakness in the gold price. Sometimes I get the feeling that at an AGM several years down the road when gold is say $700/800 oz, Catchpole will be telling us he's rolling it over again, so no problems. If and when they have to close, the opportunity cost will be high but, we hope, "lost" in a much higher annual output. Nevertheless, a hedge-free sticker, IMHO, would help to market AVM to US investors.

[theberg] 10/2/2005 17:41

LOL, Bionic!

[bionicdog] 10/2/2005 17:33

i prefer the term oxymoron , but that's because i went to a good skool.

[theberg] 10/2/2005 17:32

YikYak,

Aren't the words "Friendly" and "Banker" together in the same sentence a contradiction in terms?(;-)0

[yikyak] 10/2/2005 17:15

From the 3rd Feb, post 107

My friendly banker told me a few weeks ago that gold needs to pull back to $411-$412 before launching again at some speed.

................and he was spot on. ;-)

[saucepan] 10/2/2005 16:49

Two days of rising gold prices; makes a nice change :-)

That 100p glass ceiling is looking ever more vulnerable.

[jk8] 09/2/2005 14:31

How come Primary Metals has announced the sale of Avocet's 49% investment but nothing from AVM?????

[pecker1] 09/2/2005 10:16

theberg,

Thanks for the alert re Thistle.I've been looking at your new thread and trying to work out what's going on.

Hope you are back on board AVM - steady she goes. Zeravshan seems to be holding this back but hoping for a big lift this summer from drilling at Kali Sua Sinta where their exploration team spent months last year.

[kojak78] 09/2/2005 09:32

The fact is, if Avocet would have been 3.50 pounds in 2003 and fallen back to 2 pounds it would be the darling of gold stock tipsters because it is so cheap. But 1 pound? Expensive, look it already has risen several 100% to it's bubble price level and is ready to crash.

If Avocet really succeeds on all fronts will get 300,000 oz of production next year and US$200 cash costs. if you assume 20 mio overhead + exploration + hedge buyback and 30% tax rate and US$550 gold price you'll get a p/e of 3.2
Newmont will have a p/e of 15 at those price levels, Gold Fields of 11 or so. Just imagine what is possible. 3.5x vs. other gold stocks. 2x general gold stocks. 2x if avocet reaches premium status. That's 7 to 14 times current price. 7 to 14 pounds only at gold US$550 which isn't the end of this bull market. The ultimate top could give us further 4x to 5x leverage in the POG and on top of that 2x-3x leverage in gold stock p/e ratios.

My bet is that Avocet will reach >50 or 100 pounds per share a few years down the road. The best deals in gold stocks always at least 100x themselves. Some gained 5000x the previous price in just a few years back in the 70s and no one is fundamental cheaper than Avocet. of course in the late bull market it gets wildly speculative and you never know what type of company will be en vogue.

75 pound per share or 15bn market cap for Avocet isn't unrealistic at US$2000-4000 gold prices. Gold stocks will once again command premiums and one ounce in the ground will be worth *more* than one ounce above ground because of the possibility of finding much much more ounces and total cheap production costs. I expect US$2000-4000/oz of gold with cash costs still at US$200-250, inflation will rise those targets much higher. And in that case 2.5 - 5 mio oz in reserves is enough to give you 75 pounds per share.

[kojak78] 09/2/2005 09:16

You don't need to look any further than Avocet, there is NO cheaper, better deal in the whole mining industry. Look at Gold Fields. After all these losses still US$141/oz of reserves (Avocet US$100/oz). Harmony, lost >50% since 2002. Still US$950/production oz. Avocet this year US$1225 and next year perhaps US$700. US$950 may be cheaper than US$1225, but Avocet has cash costs in the US$200-250 range, harmony in the US$400-450 range..

The last "hot tip" I examined is Oxiana in Australia. Still more expensive.

I'm looking since 2002 for better deals than Avocet and I tell you there is none. Perhaps in the exploration industry with Novagold, but that's a totally different business and if you look at grades Novagold's assets doesn't look so well.

[kojak78] 09/2/2005 09:10

Thistle went into bankruptcy. The mines are ultra high cost (>500 US$/oz). So what should it be worth?

The curious thing is while Avocet made several 100% gains and Thistle lost 99% for their shareholders (creditors get nearly all the remaining assets) Thistle has still a higher market cap (current market cap of 7.5 mio US$ is max. 5% as min. 95% of assets go to the creditors, probably remaining shareholders will get much less than 5%) and is several times as expensive as Avocet if you consider their low quality assets.

Price is not value..