Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[brad1] 02/2/2005 08:07

"brought to their full capacities", "expansion programme" and "future with CONSIDERABLE confidence" is good enough for me. Production not too bad, only down about 10%. We need to remember that this company rarely overstates what is going on and they seem to be going forward as planned. Agree with post 92 that this may produce another buying opportunity for us faithfull. More than happy to hold.

[bionicdog] 02/2/2005 07:59

back to bed then :o(

[mieke] 02/2/2005 07:15

Well Penjom and Tajikstan performed in line with what they have been doing in the last 6 months - but I had hoped we had get more through from N.Lanut - looks like its there but 'still in solution' - latter should be reflected in last quarter. They seem very bullish in their forward looking statements though.

[mieke] 02/2/2005 07:12

Avocet Mining PLC
02 February 2005


AVOCET MINING PLC

THIRD QUARTER GOLD PRODUCTION


Avocet Mining announces gold production of 40,688 ounces for the third quarter
ending 31 December 2004 (compared with 44,712 ounces for the same period last
year), and 122,695 ounces for the first nine months ended 31 December 2004
(135,124 ounces).


Gold production from Penjom in Malaysia amounted to 28,576 ounces for the
quarter (32,074 ounces) and 87,585 ounces for the first nine months (94,381
ounces). The lower gold production corresponds to a reduction in ore tonnes
processed due to planned overhauls of the plant for improving and sustaining its
performance over the expanding life of Penjom's mineral resources.


Production from the Zeravshan Gold Company (ZGC) in Tajikistan was 11,437 ounces
for the quarter (12,638 ounces) and 34,435 ounces for the first nine months
(40,743 ounces). Production has been constrained as ZGC undergoes an expansion
programme that includes pre-stripping waste from the main pit, additions to the
mining fleet and the building of a dump leach facility. These elements of the
expansion programme are scheduled for completion in mid 2005.


Production from the North Lanut dump leach mine in Indonesia commenced in
October 2004 as planned with an inaugural gold pour of 675 ounces. Since then
gold has been accumulated in solution while open pit mining and plant operations
are brought to their full capacities.


John Catchpole, Chief Executive Officer, commented:


'Penjom continues to perform well. At ZGC, we are starting to see the benefits
of new investments following the corporate restructuring finalised last
November. We remain optimistic that ZGC's expansion programme for 2005 will
result in an increase in production to the targeted annual rate of 100,000
ounces over the next 15 months. With North Lanut just having come on stream we
expect to reach optimisation within the next 3 months when annualised production
of over 60,000 ounces is planned. Combined with an expanding pipeline of gold
prospects in Central and South East Asia, we look forward to the future with
considerable confidence'


Avocet is a mining company listed on the AIM market of the London Stock
Exchange. The Company's principal activities are gold mining and exploration in
Malaysia (as 100% owner of the Penjom mine, the country's largest gold
producer), Tajikistan (as 75% owner of the Zeravshan Gold Company, Tajikistan's
principal gold mine), and Indonesia (as 80% owner of the North Lanut gold mine
in North Sulawesi).

______________________________________________________________

[saucepan] 02/2/2005 06:59

Well spotted Budenwiser.

Actual production figures disappointing: 40,688 ounces, compared to 44,712 previously. HOWEVER, the forward statement is good. I wonder which the market will focus on?

[goml] 02/2/2005 06:54

Hopefully, some investors will be disappointed and sell AVM on these prod figs and the share price will fall so I can buy some more cheaper.

[budevenwiser] 02/2/2005 00:27

3rd qaurter results are out on avm website

[mieke] 01/2/2005 17:38

Yes looks like there were 2 very chunky buys of 170,000 and 205,000. I also wonder whether perhaps thats management again?

Somewhat disappointed though that it seems they arent going to bother posting 3rdQ results. I reckon they are missing a trick there as it would have focussed investors mines.....

[jk8] 01/2/2005 17:32

Good volumes - any chance of the Chairman been adding to his stake??

[acko2001] 01/2/2005 11:32

From a general charting prosective on gold it is behaviing slightly oddly at present. The metal is consolidating and has done so in the face of a decent dollar rally which would usually mean that it declines. It is forming what is known as a flag or channel but there is no bullish or bearish bias to it. There is strong support for gold at $417 and $404 so I dont think we will be dropping below $400 if the break is to the downside but which ever the channel breaks will determine direction for a number for a weeks.

With regard to Avcoet I think we have just had an ABC correction after a 5 wave up the current move is possibly wave 1 of the next upleg. As such we could be in for a small retrace before we enter the third wave of the move. My own thoughst are that a possible pull back to around 95p is required over the next week or so as gold drops to around $417 before we charge forward to new highs

[yikyak] 01/2/2005 07:44

It would be nice to leave the £1 mark behind for good and get on with achieving a more suitable valuation around the £1.90 mark.

[saucepan] 31/1/2005 17:01

In the absence of news, 100p is looking increasingly like a glass ceiling. However, I don't think it will take much to shatter it: a broker upgrade, or hike up in the gold price. And perhaps company news will still come soon?

[mieke] 27/1/2005 18:43

Thanks Phillis - so tomorrow or Monday (if they are going to tell us?). I liked the comments from the Chinese authorities today that they now view the $ as an unstable declining currency!

[phillis] 27/1/2005 12:34

FD travelling, back next week
Re Chairman's purchase, monthly production numbers are ...... monthly.
I think one should assume there is no price sensitive aspect to those numbers -either way

[yikyak] 27/1/2005 09:26

Nice to have you back wdurham.

[saucepan] 27/1/2005 07:48

mieke and goml: thank for the additional thoughts. Perhaps Phillis will be able to shed further light later in the day after contacting the company.

[goml] 27/1/2005 07:23

Also, by definition almost, directors are always privy to price sensitive info. so there would never be a suitable time to deal and that would just be plain daft. I think the prod figs will come as normal.

[mieke] 27/1/2005 07:18

Yes that thought crossed my mind as well; perhaps quarterlys are covered? otherwise there would be precious little time for directors to buy?

[goml] 27/1/2005 07:16

Interesting question Saucepan and although I don't know the definative answer, I suspect that he WOULD be able to deal in the company's shares in advance of an RNS like prod figs, on the basis that most company's make a fair number of unscheduled announcements throughout the year and it would be impossible to expect them to predict all of them in advance and thereby enter the requisite closed periods, they would never be able to deal at all ! I think that the rules on director dealings will only relate to scheduled announcements like prelims and finals.

[saucepan] 26/1/2005 23:30

(As I have accidentally double posted, I'll change this post to air another thought that has occured to me on the same subject:)

Hypothetically: if AVM knew it was going to release price sensitive news (i.e. very strong quarterly production) on, say, 31 January, would a director have been allowed to purchase shares so close to such an announcement?

Maybe the recent director purchase suggests that a further RNS is not imminent?

Can anyone clarify LSE rules in this regard?

[saucepan] 26/1/2005 23:30

Yes. I am not particularly nervous - hopefully just healthily so! I am, in fact, more confident in AVM than any other share I am invested in. However, on the basis of that confidence, I have built my investment in AVM to make it the largest holding in my portfolio by percentage - so that in itself creates extra potential concern: to want to limit potential downside risk.

Bull markets climb a wall of worry, according to investment sages. Hopefully, my future AVM wealth will do the same.

I wonder whether this dialogue has tempted providence and we'll get an announcement tomorrow :-)

regards

Saucepan

[mieke] 26/1/2005 19:50

Good points Saucepan - thing is though we already know that the biggest component (Penjom) is doing just fine (19,777oz in the first 2 months of the quarter, according to the last but one RNS on the upgrade of resources there), which compares favourably with previous 6 months production. Tajikstan will benefit from the repaired mill which was knackered in September, and which was back in operation in November; and N.Lanut is all new production anyway, so I cant see too much reason to be nervous.

[saucepan] 26/1/2005 19:41

Following on from mieke's line of argument:

If figures are good, AVM will surely, in most circumstances, want to trumpet them at the earliest opportunity and draw the market's attention to the company's performance? If corporate activity was under discussion in the background, this might be one reason for wishing to maintain a low profile. I can't, myself, think of any others.

If production figures were marginally disappointing, or worse, this would be an obvious reason why AVM might wish to keep a lid on things. Another quarter would provide the space to get things back on track.

On balance, therefore, I suspect that, if figures are to be released, this means "probably good". (Of course, we shall actually know immediately one way or the other!) If they are not released, I shall be a bit more nervous.

[saucepan] 26/1/2005 18:44

Thanks, Phillis; much appreciated by everyone on the board, I am sure.

[wdurham] 26/1/2005 18:09

Aha - Biswell Banished?

I might return to read about AVM now! One can only take so much coy and gleeful dispensation of gloom and doom - especially when so much of it is wrong.

Re: that hedge. It's some time ago now, but I spoke to the CEO at the last-but-one AGM, and he said categorically that he had no intention of taking a loss by selling gold into it. He was convinced (and seemingly still is) that the counterparty would be happy to continue to roll it, all the while Avocet was producing gold. And that seems to be for the foreesable future?