Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[brad1] 08/2/2005 22:38

Exactly, great potential! And no doubt management will seek other opportunities to enhance portfolio and make this a real exciting stock in the future. Been with this stock since their low and am enjoying the ride, but it may only have just begun. Good luck to all.

[saucepan] 08/2/2005 18:51

Timely reminder, Richgit, thanks.

[richgit] 08/2/2005 12:46

More excitement.....and this will do for a starters but no-one mentions it.

RNS Number:3431G
Avocet Mining PLC
14 December 2004

AVOCET MINING PLC

AVOCET EXPANDS ITS GOLD PORTFOLIO IN INDONESIA

Avocet Mining PLC ("the Company") has completed a joint venture agreement ("JVA
") to earn a 51% interest in an Indonesian company, PT Iriana Mutiara Idenburg
("PT IMI"). PT IMI holds a 6th generation Contract of Work ("CoW") with the
Government of the Republic of Indonesia.

The CoW includes exploration and mining rights over 108,600 hectares
(approximately 420 square miles) in the Idenburg area of Papua Province
(formally Irian Jaya) on the island of New Guinea. New Guinea hosts some of the
world's largest gold deposits, including multi-million ounce reserves at the
Grasberg and Porgera mines.

The terms of the JVA are such that the Company has paid US$50,000 cash on
signing and will earn its 51% interest after expenditures on exploration and
development total US$2.5 million within a two year timeframe. The Company has
already spent US$377,400 on due diligence work that will count towards the
earn-in expenditure.

The CoW lies in a low mountain range some 120 kilometres to the south of the
provincial capital of Jayapura, which is situated on the northern coast. During
due diligence work over the last nine months, the Company's geological team has
identified three primary drilling targets at Bermol, Mafi, and Kali Sua Sinta.
The rapid rate of discovery and relatively unexplored nature of the CoW
highlights the potential for further significant discoveries through systematic
exploration.

The Company will initially focus on Kali Sua Sinta where it has identified
several zones of high-grade mineralisation within a 400 metres strike length and
500 metres width. This is located within a shear zone that extends for at least
five kilometres. Table 1 summarises results from surface channel sampling at
Kali Sua Sinta which has returned gold grades at surface as high as 73 g/t.
These assays reflect in situ grades and there is no evidence of supergene
enrichment. Initial metallurgical test work (bottle roll tests) indicates gold
recoveries exceeding 95%. The Company plans to commence drilling at Kali Sua
Sinta in the first half of 2005 with the initial objective of identifying a
minimum gold resource of 500,000 ounces in the area's near surface, high grade
zones.

The Bermol and Mafi prospects represent the next generation of targets within
the CoW. Both lie on an under-explored, fifteen-kilometre long structure.
Previous channel sampling at Bermol returned 8m at 5.81 g/t Au, 6m at 8.42 g/t
Au, 8m at 5.78 g/t Au and 4m at 19.4 g/t Au. Scout drilling at Mafi intersected
up to 12.6m at 8.00 g/t Au.

Avocet is a mining company listed on the AIM market of the London Stock
Exchange. The Company's principal activities are gold mining and exploration in
Malaysia (as 100% owner of the Penjom mine, the country's largest gold
producer), Tajikistan (as 75% owner and operator of the Zeravshan Gold Company,
Tajikistan's principal gold mine), and Indonesia (as 80% owner of the North
Lanut gold mine in North Sulawesi).

[saucepan] 08/2/2005 10:54

Brad 1: Taking the RNS as a whole, and especially the outlook statement, I agree with you, hence the use of inverted commas. It is also the reason I remain heavily long on AVM. However, the actual fall in production is easily negatively spun and was all some press coverage picked up. So, the price has held up very well in the circumstances.

As I mentioned earlier, one of the good things about the lower figures this year is that hopefully next years figures, against this rather weak benchmark, will appear absoulutely stellar next time round. The press can then have a field day :-)

But there will surely be more excitement before then?

[brad1] 07/2/2005 22:32

The recent RNS is far from "disappointing", in fact I believe it couldn't have been much better. A slight drop in Q3 production will be more than outweighed by the short term production increase, and management know with "considerable confidence" so hence the recent "big" director buy. Very nice to see the price remain fairly strong. I would expect a nice rise once resistance is broke, and this should hopefully be exemplified on a bounce in gold price.

[mieke] 07/2/2005 18:32

saucepan - yes the chunky buys are encouraging (there were 400,000 plus buys last week), and I wouldnt be surprised if we dont get an RNS soon about holdings etc....

[saucepan] 07/2/2005 11:23

I am surprised, but also pleased that the AVM price is holding up so well, and even creeping back towards 100p.

The "disappointing" quarterly figures, and weak current gold price could easily have driven the price back to test previous support levels.

This appears not to be happening. It seems as though weak sellers have dried up. I am also intrigued by the regular chunky "buys", over the past few trading days: another 75,000 registered this morning.

Perhaps/probably the influence of the recent broker note.

Whatever, it all augurs well, IMHO

[yikyak] 07/2/2005 08:54

Brown sold the UK's reserve gold pretty much at it's low and replaced the reserves/bought the dollar pretty much at it's high. I wonder how long he would last as a trader?

About a one billion loss so far and according to a poster on iii the UK's gold reserves are now equal to that of Albania. Makes you feel proud eh!



I mentioned last week that we need to get to $410-$411 before bouncing.

[richgit] 05/2/2005 16:44

Brown is a clown,and others laugh behind his back,as they fear his ineptitude
could spread.
The Man that allowed himself to be an instrumental tool in the devaluing of
of a resource that could have helped Africa with its poverty problems.

How could you help Africa when publicly devaluing such a major resource, their ultimate pay and profits.Who was going to improve standards when such a product was reduced to a lower price than many could dig it up for.

Brown should concentrate on the UK where his idea of unemployment is for the
Government to employ more and more whilst the remaining tax payers that have to
support this policy are being stretched and stretched.The rubber band is going to snap and Brown should be looking for the glue-and soon.My fear is the glue will be more and more Tax,the instrument of every failing chancellor.

What faith can we have in such a Dictatorship where even the merest question of what Brown did with our Gold money is treated with contempt.
He bought the Euro at the top and the Dollar at the Top,so I guess he has used
other undisclosed funds to average down and down and down...................

[corrientes] 05/2/2005 14:05

Africa is a bottomless pit so throwing money at it isn't going to change anything. They need 'democracy' not tribes. That'll do far more than for their prosperity. Sadly, Africa doen't seem ready for it.GB with his strong Scottish religious leanings, does more harm than good. Come to that why the hell is little britain so keen to take the lead on overseas problems when we've got ewnough problems in our own back yard with the rubbish of the population now in the majority and creating the 'standards'. Thank goodness the Yanks think GB's plan is a load of baloney, as they know a thing or two about corruption.

Since we have stupidly disgorged ourselves of gold, seems to me we'd be the losers. Another piece of lunacy by the idiot.

[yikyak] 05/2/2005 11:32

Why is Gordon Brown obsessed with IMF gold?

I don't completely understand this obsession Gordon Brown has with the IMF gold. Why does he always target gold in his third world debt schemes? He could just as easily call for a multi-nation bond issue or simply ask the various nations for a U.S. Treasuries donation to cover the third world debt.

I'm sorry, but I don't believe for a minute that the chancellor of the exchequer is motivated solely by his concern for Third World indebtedness. I think we all remember that the last time Brown stumped for IMF gold sales, he failed. The IMF opted for revaluation. The result was that the Bank of England let go of a good portion of the British people's gold reserve at cycle low prices. Now Brown is at it again.................................................................

[mieke] 04/2/2005 20:06

Hmmm up today in the face of falling gold, AND two very big trades of over £400,000 each (both posted as buys). A million shares traded, highest since last October. I have always thought there would be some corporate action involving AVM this year, and now I begin to suspect something is going on........watch this space.

[taylor20] 03/2/2005 21:43

repeat their buy stance, published yesterday:

Gold Malaise

A set of results which will disappoint, with a production decline of 10%. All the opertions underwent some tweaking and the new mine is ramping up to full production. Now a buying opportunity ahead of a growth phase.

Gold production slips 10% as company prepares for expansion
Avocet's third quarter gold production results out this morning show a 9% decline in gold production against the same period last year. We anticipate that full year production will be circa 180,000 ounces. We believe that average cash costs will be $259/oz for the year also up 10%, placing the company at around the average for the industry in Q3 2004 and resulting in a PBT of $15.8 million.

Lower plant throughput as circuit is optimised
Penjom saw a production decline as the plant underwent an overhaul thereby reducing tonnage throughput. This follows the installation of a new secondary crusher and Knelson concentrator completed in the first half. The new circuit is therefore presumed to be taking some time to bed down. Gold grades were up 3% at the half-year point, which bodes well for future production once the throughput is sorted out.

ZGC pre stripping in preparation for open pit mining
The company indicated in the last interims that the ZGC operations in Tajikistan were in a state of flux. Transitioning back to open pit mining in preparation for an expansion to the mine by treating low-grade ore by low cost dump leaching. The company anticipates this will be completed in Q1 of year ending March 2006. The company is forecasting an annualised production rate of 100,000 ounces next year. This represents a doubling of our anticipated rate for this year.

North Lanut on track to reach steady production next year of 60,000 oz
The company's guidance on the ramp up of the new North Lanut operation is not clear. The quarterly statement appears to imply that following the first gold pour of 675 ounces in October, no further gold dore has been produced but rather is swilling around in solution in the process circuit. Following a conversation with management this is not understood to be the case; gold production is on track to reach a steady state production rate of 60,000 ounces next year. We anticipate gold sales this year to be 12,000 ounces at a cash cost $300/oz dropping to $150/oz. The jump in production being the time lag as the circuit builds up a steady flow rate.

Maintain target price of 130p
We have shaved our numbers slightly based on the lower anticipated production but maintain our 130p target price based on core value and earnings growth. We expect to see some weakness in the price around these results as investors look back to the build up phase rather than forward to production and growth. Wait and buy on weakness.

[richgit] 03/2/2005 21:01

DENVER (Dow Jones)--This year will be "a bit of a quiet year" for gold, but if history repeats itself, gold prices should soar in the next five to eight years, Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) President Pierre Lassonde said Thursday.

Gold will trade in the $400 to $475 a troy ounce range this year, selling at the lower end of the range in the first half of the year and rallying toward $ 475 at the end of the year, Lassonde predicted at a National Western Mining Conference breakfast meeting.

The front-month gold futures contract on Thursday was trading at around $417 an ounce.

Lassonde said the U.S. dollar will likely experience a "dead-cat bounce" in the first part of 2005 because it declined so much in the last half of 2004. The dollar's rise will subdue gold prices, he said.



The price of gold and the dollar typically move in opposite directions because gold is seen as a safe haven investment in uncertain times.

But gold should rise in the next few years because of trouble brewing for the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar, said Lassonde, who is often cited in the gold industry for his price predictions.

"If you look back at the 1970s, you'll get a really good idea of what the next five years will look like," Lassonde said. "There are a huge amount of similarities to where we are today."

Lassonde cited a fivefold increase in the price of oil then and now: Oil rose from $2.20 a barrel in 1971 to $11.50 a barrel in 1974, and it rose from about $ 10 a barrel in 1998 to $50 a barrel in 2004.

The U.S. was in the Vietnam War in the 1970s and is fighting in Iraq today, he said.

And there was a "huge increase in the government budget deficit" in the 1970s, and the same thing is happening today, Lassonde said.

The victim of U.S. policies in the 1970s was the U.S. dollar, he said, which lost about 50% of its value versus the Japanese yen and the German mark.

"The biggest winner of all was gold," Lassonde said, noting that gold started the decade in 1970 at $35 an ounce and traded for $850 an ounce at the beginning of 1980.

Lassonde said charting the price of gold to the Dow Jones Industrial Average historically shows that either the price of gold will rise dramatically or the Dow will fall in the next few years.

In 1999 when the economy was booming, the Dow average was about 42 times the price of gold, he said. But in 1980, when the economy was struggling, the ratio of the Dow and the gold price was one-to-one at 800.

"I think we'll see a ratio in the low numbers again - maybe (the Dow at) two, three or five times the gold price - in the next five to eight years," Lassonde said.

[yikyak] 03/2/2005 19:06

My friendly banker told me a few weeks ago that gold needs to pull back to $411-$412 before launching again at some speed. My only reaction to this was to unload some of my North Americans, I did not touch my UK holdings as they tend to be far more stable. As for any pullback in Avocet I can't see it any lower than 86 and even that is highly unlikely in my opinion. What keeps me in Avocet and with such a heavy investment is the fact that I expect it just to run over the space of a few days (point unknown) and put on thirty plus percent and I really don't want to risk missing it.

We shall know soon but it was a pleasant suprise to see a little blue on Avocet today, however small. I think most stockholders of Avocet seem to be happy to just let it run over the long term rather than attempt trading it. Very relaxed attitude and a credit to the management for maintaining such a loyal base built up over the last few years.

[bestbuddy] 03/2/2005 17:52

Looks to be a combination of falling gold price and a slight strengthening of the dollar.
Current predictions seem to be a retracement in the gold price to a critical support of $380 before moving northwards again with strength. If 380 happens short term, AVM could drop as low as 80 - 85p based on the simple rule of thumb mentioned in my last post. This interestingly is a clear resistance level on the AVM chart so i dont think it will fall lower than this even if Gold drops a little further. As we get close to results, we should see upward pressure on the price so timing is everything. I think for the next month, gold price will be the main determiner of direction and speed.

[tobie_1] 03/2/2005 13:54

whys gold taken a plunge any thoughts anyone

[bestbuddy] 03/2/2005 13:33

Bud,
I like Avocet too,
but Gold price looks set to continue falling and Avocet is highly geared to this.
Also with recent £/$ rates falling the price of gold in £'s looks even worse.
I sold of 90% of my holding and would buy back if we had a dramatic drop to 80/85 or when declining Gold price showed signs of reversing.
Obviously i have an interest in this falling further as i am looking to buy back at a lower price, but i am not trying to de-ramp.
Do you think this can hold up short term?
How far would gold have to drop before Avocet would correct?
As a rule of thumb i use 1p drop for every $3-4 doller drop in gold using $440 to 100p as a start point.
This would give against current levels of $417 a price for avocet of 92-94p.
Generally price takes a day to catch up.

[budevenwiser] 03/2/2005 12:10

well i've picked up a few more yesterday and today , shortterm price depends on traders , longterm its a no brainer as i have full faith in the management and i cant think of many companies i can say that about.

[kojak78] 02/2/2005 20:21

Hm, production @ Penjom could very well rech 130 to 140,000 oz as future production doesn't need as much ore as previously. Stockpiles..

Tajikistan 100,000 and North Lanu 60,000..

makes 300,000. Perhaps even 320,000 if North Lanut gives us 80,000.

regards
kojak

[taylor20] 02/2/2005 14:20

Was also hoping for the opportunity to top up in the mid-80's, but won't be too disappointed if the share price goes the other way! :)

[dixi] 02/2/2005 13:54

There seem to have been many 'double tops' dips and rises since I first bought AVM @ 39p, the odd brief disappointment in RNS statements - BUT - the path has always been upwards. Good things.........................

[bestbuddy] 02/2/2005 13:38

It has failed to break the 1.00 barrier twice now.
Gold price has been dropping recently.
Despite high casualties, progress in Iraq is being made.
Whilst i am a long term believer in this company and in Gold as a safe store of wealth i am concerned that short term this share price will fall posssibly as low as 80p if gold drops back to $400.
I retain a small holding, just to keep my toe in the water but am looking to buy back in a lower levels than this.

[saucepan] 02/2/2005 13:20

I suppose it's mildly amusing, in a perverse way, that the share price is down over 4% with a total of just over 200,000 trades, when two trades yesterday accounted for almost 400,000 shares with negligible affect on the price.

Perhaps the market makers want more stock and are taking the opportunity to induce a few more sellers?

Most of us on this board, I gather, are long term holders. Just remember that this time next year Q3 figures will be compared with this year's lowish performance (explained, as we all know, by exceptional circumstances).

In other words, we won't have a high benchmark to out perform, next time round. Hopefully, the improvement in production will by then be stellar; and the market will go into ecstacy.

However, I suspect that there will be lots of good news to come, as the year develops, well before this time, to drive the share price forwards.

Maybe some analysts will have the sense to see beyond the superficial disappointment of today's figures, and issue a positive assessment of AVM's prospects to their clients. There is also the possibility of more institutional or director buying. And of course, best of all: resource upgrades and mergers and acquisitions! Any of these things could soon get us back on track.