Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[yikyak] 22/3/2005 19:40

Makes you wonder how the dollar bulls are going to try and spin this as bullish!

China cut the share of its foreign reserves held in U.S. dollar assets last year, suggesting that the United States might no longer be able to rely on Asia to finance growing deficits, investment bank Lehman Brothers said in a report this week.

China's has the world's second-largest foreign currency reserves after Japan, with the equivalent of nearly US$610 billion (euro470 billion) at the end of 2004. That rose by US$209.9 billion (euro161.5 billion) last year, driven in part by a surging trade surplus.

Even as the reserves grew, the share of dollar assets held by China's central bank fell to 76 percent, down from 82 percent in 2003, Lehman Brothers said.

The bank "is slowly diversifying its FX (foreign-exchange) reserves away from U.S. dollars," said the report, written by London-based analyst Shruti Sood.

The Chinese government won't disclose the composition of its foreign reserves, but acknowledges that most are in U.S. Treasury bills and other dollar assets.

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and South Korean officials have said their own governments should diversify their foreign currency reserves, reducing reliance on the dollar.

Combined with those comments, the results of research on Chinese holdings suggests that the United States might no longer be able to rely on Asian official financing for its growing current account deficit, the report said.

[kojak78] 22/3/2005 13:49

One of mankind's biggest follies was the search for the philisophers stone and trying to transform iron into gold. Well, it's back. Modern alchymists don't try to generate gold from quicksilver but try to get hold of inexhaustible sources of money. Roulette schemes, stock market trading.. in the end you'll have wasted your time, the most precious asset we have.

I felt 104 was some kind of high, I could have sold. But I'd got 92.5 after tax. Now I'd buy back for 92 as I am only able to trade at bid/ask. And that would be in the perfect case scenario.

In the end it's the sitting tight that'll get you the money, investing rather than trading..

[kojak78] 22/3/2005 13:39

Williams %R most oversold level since 2002 (10p)
RSI most oversold level sind mid 2002
Slow Stochastics lowest value sind fall 2002.

Last time we went from 23 to 81 and from 55 to 104. That's an average gain of 170%.

Perhaps we'll touch the 200dma at 86 or 87.

If I had sold it wouldn't have mattered, from april on I'm tax free.

Year end 170 to 300p.

[andy] 22/3/2005 13:34

bud,

"nm at sc"?

[budevenwiser] 22/3/2005 13:27

just been told mm at s.c has been told to get rid of anything on his books before the hols by his bosses so if you want some at 90 put an order in , probably the same with them all , could even go lower

[acko2001] 22/3/2005 13:10

I think the main problem is that Gold has completed (in my view) a big wave one up that has lasted for 4 years. We then went down in 5 small waves and back up in three small waves. That was wave 1 and 2 of big wave 2 down. Not sure yet where that will finish but I would expect gold to be dropping under $400 at least as the full 5 waves down will need to be completed. That will then allow big wave three which will be the main one to commence. That will be the wave that takes gold well beyond $500.

Before all the gold bugs go on at me - I am one too. I have been in AVM since below 30p and yesterday took my profits. The main risk is that AVM is undervalued and it may upgrade its resources, if that happens whilst I am out tehn I have been unlucky in my timing. If it doesnt then I have done well.

I was half expecting AVM not to move down with the gold price as it didnt move up with teh gold price either. Today has confirmed that that is not going to be the case.

[kojak78] 22/3/2005 12:47

Imagine you own a house that gives 1000 pounds rent a month or 12000 pounds a year. You paid 600000 pounds for that house in the hope that it may go up to 700000 pounds. It goes down to 500000 pounds, the price never recovers, you have made a loss.

Imagine you own a similar house, 1000 pounds rent per month, 12000 per year. Because of circumstances this house sold for 90000 pounds. You hope the price will increase to 180000 pounds, yet it falls to 60000 pounds.
You have made a loss, too. But instead of taking your loss you decide to move into that house and live there as you save 1000 pounds per months. After 5 years you have back your capital and still own the house.

Well, the first house is the general stock market, a fool's game to find the bigger fool. The second one is Avocet, if something goes wrong you can still use it's cash flow. In the next couple of years when all mines are fully developed Avocet will pay generous dividends.

That is a *huge* difference.

[theberg] 22/3/2005 11:55

Budenveiser yes inclined to agree doubt AVM will drop below 81.00p ish

[doobydave] 22/3/2005 10:42

budevenwiser,

Snap. I may well add at 90p, but not immediately.

At one point AVM was an 'it' share; every man and his dog wanted to ride the wave(s). I wonder if part of the problem is that many people now look at AVM and think all the potential is done, dusted and dustbinned. Oxus is fairly similar, though it was hampered by the Jerooy license problem for a while. It's now making a bit of headway, but if you compare the two-year charts, AVM is actually the healthier of the two.

Speaking of which, the wave forms look immensely predictable. I don't expect us to break 90p, unless very briefly, and certainly not 85p, but we may well then trade sideways for a month or two.

Having made bold predicitive statements on the basis of the chart, the results coming could well explode it. Let's hope so.
DD

[budevenwiser] 22/3/2005 09:08

you have to laugh , £ 8000 of shares traded and they knock over £2 000 000 off the company , dont know if this comp will ever reach its true worth because it must be on the radar of some over priced mid cap who could snap it up for a song , anyway it works both ways they are creating a good buying oportunity i'm waiting for 90 bid , nice and oversold if i'm right the next leg up will be 1 of 5 and this will dwarf the past 2 years when we see production figures ramped up from all 3 mines especially north lanut which i think could turn into a real gem

[andy] 20/3/2005 12:06

mieke,

let's hope so!

I have been considering adding, so the current small slide is making AVM more attractive as results approach.

[mieke] 20/3/2005 09:52

hardly a drop guys - we have been trading between 95p and £1 for several months now. I dont lose any sleep over my AVM holding, we are just in a holding pattern. Look for the next quarters figures (in 5-6 weeks) to wake the price up - if POG doesnt before then.

[jk8] 20/3/2005 09:43

The news about Newmont has been out in the open for some time now - i posted a comment about it on the 10th March. Very slow market reaction if it is this that's causing the drop. Perhaps it was just an institution taking profits before the year end??

Having said all that it would be "nice" to hear some reassuring noises coming from AVM.

[taylor20] 18/3/2005 18:12

The Newmont situation may be ruffling a few feathers:

[trader horne] 18/3/2005 17:13

I dont understand how 238$/oz prod cost is derived from chart $/prod 886 ...
anyone enlighten me please?

[yikyak] 18/3/2005 16:14

Not a problem, it seems as though we have to follow the chart and re-visit 92p before the next rise. This one will be the one to take us to £1.30. :-)

[jk8] 18/3/2005 15:58

That was one hell of a BUY signal from British Bulls - roll on a SELL signal!!!

[kojak78] 18/3/2005 09:16

Just read something about Kingsgate.

A German financial newspaper recommended Kingsgate.
Production 120000 oz. Price received US$375/oz, Production costs US$265.

earnings = .12 mio x (375-265) = 13.2 mio

p/e = 150 mio / 13.2 = 11

Such is the method mainstream idiots value gold stocks.

So Avocet would be valued (6 months to Sept. 2004):
earnings = .224 mio x (438-238) = 44.8 mio
p/e = 194 mio / 35.6 mio = 4

What will be in 2 years? Avocet will increase Penjom production back to 135000 oz as they have build stockpiles, optimized plant etc. Lower cash costs, too. Tajikistan will bring 70000 - 100000 oz instead of 46000. 25000 with cash costs near 100, so lower costs here, too. Riska will produce 60 to 80000 oz at 150. That means an average of 290000 oz with cash costs of 200. Let's assume POG 530 which is rather conservative for 2007.

Kingsgate will have to sell 50% of Chatree according to Thai law.. so only 60000 oz production left and hedged to the roof.

Avocet
earnings = .29 mio x (530-200) = 95.7 mio
p/e = 194 mio / 95.7 mio = 2

Kingsgate
earnings = .06 mio x (530-265) = 15.9 mio
p/e = 150 mio / 95.7 mio = 9

Avocet is undervalued 3 to 4.5 x measured by production.. I wished they'd increase the jorc reserve figures, that's the main thing holding us back. US$350/reserve oz valuation like Golden Star would be nice, too.

[jk8] 17/3/2005 18:39

British Bulls have posted a BUY signal on this baby - guess it may climb 2 - 3 p!!!

[bestbuddy] 17/3/2005 18:05

If it wernt for the weakening $USD, then gold would be lower. Think this will fly eventually but i am anticipating a little more of a drop to bring back buyer interest in force.

[brad1] 17/3/2005 11:32

If it does pause at that level I dont think it will be 4 long. Once next production figures are released with the increased productivity from upgrading, coupled with a strong gold price, then this will power upwards quite nicely. Good management is the key, with continuing exploration and eyeing up new licenses or acquisitions. Look forward to med-long term and who knows could come good in short term.

[yikyak] 17/3/2005 09:26

As you say once it clears the £ then buyers are going to be stacked up like a Heathrow flight path. Once it moves off the £1.02-£1.05 mark then it's going to be a pretty quick ride to the £1.20-£1.30 area before pausing imho.

[brad1] 17/3/2005 01:20

Nice to see hedge holding things down for a while, only keeps gathering strength the longer it attacks this recent resistance. Clear break from a pound and I am loading up with this share. Purely looking for a buy signal before increasing position. Got to be one of the best risk/gain scenario around, but patience is required. ssshhhhhh!

[taylor20] 16/3/2005 18:11

Does ADVFN like Tables?Nr.NameProduktionReservenMarket.Cap$/Res.$/Prod.1Newmont698992.420030216.772865.932AnglogoldAshanti640783.89920118.381548.313Barrick49588913570152.472736.994Gold.Fields425477.5616079.481448.055Placer.Dome365259.97670128.052100.226Harmony342855.6337060.61983.087Buenaventura164414.93050204.701855.238*Kinross161319.42320119.591438.319Goldcorp/Wheaton1126125110425.834538.1910*DRD.Gold91311.720517.52224.5311Newcrest868284857173.465595.6212Cambior6953.5624178.29897.8413Centerra6414.41275289.771989.0814Lihir59921117455.901959.9315Iamgold4323.7991267.842293.9816Meridian3141.81770983.335636.9417*Resolute3071.8213118.33693.8118Northgate3042.1317150.951042.7619*Agnico.Eagle2727.91300164.564779.4120*Queenstake2430.9101112.22415.6421Glamis2346.32210350.799444.4422Bema2308.61090126.744739.1323Croesus2260.6126210.00557.5224Western.Areas21528.958020.072697.6725Randgold2042.4771321.253779.4126Hecla1901.3693533.083647.3727*Oceana1852.620679.231113.5128*Avocet2201.9195102.63886.3629Golden.Star1483.81347354.479101.3530Kingsgate1461.1152138.181041.1041657648.891397140.872194.04