Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bionicdog] 01/9/2004 11:14

well done biswell , you've done it again.
i distinctly remember you predicting a 6 and a half year high.

[zaky] 01/9/2004 10:28

can someone please explain what 'parabolic' means in the context of AVM, before I go parabolic?! its up is all i know!yippee!!!!

[budevenwiser] 01/9/2004 09:35

has anyone else noticed that when biswell tells everyone to sell avm little 3k sells keep going thru ,such a big player , 3x 3k sells yesterday 3 of the same today , coincidence ,and one last thursday may not be related , keep averaging up biswell make that 6 i make that 24k short now

[carntyne] 01/9/2004 09:02

With gold seemingly able to hold over the $400 level, maybe the confidence is now there.

[budevenwiser] 01/9/2004 09:01

lol , he knows his stuff that bisbash what was it bis 2 days ago treble top sell avm yesterday sell their going to 50p ive never been wrong , oh and by the way a new six and a half year high and breakout , could go parabolic

[taylor20] 01/9/2004 08:54

Hmmm, why did I take my profits at 80p?

[corrientes] 31/8/2004 21:27

They say that if 'up above' hadn't existed he/she would have had to be invented. That's what I feel about the Euro, it seems, theoretically, a logical move as part of European integration, but in my game I see Single Market corruption and waste all the time.The ultimate litmus test will always be a military one, but the last 15 years at least, prove the ridiculous notion of the Single Market. I hate the corrupt,deceiptful,wastemongering flatulent, vastly cosseted, overpaid and underworked parasitical Commissioners and underlings existing in Brussels, Strasbourg etc. Won't even admit it's own books are Enron,WorldCom x 10, being scared of what'll be revealed. Sometimes when I'm feeling really evil,I like to think I could put them all on prison on a diet of bread and water or worse.When I'm feeling really really evil.................

[budevenwiser] 31/8/2004 20:04

just for biswell regarding interest rates and if they do strengthen the dollar






It's not just interest rates that matter
August 27, 2004
Common dogma is that the dollar follows interest rates: when interest rates (such as the Federal Funds rate) increase, the dollar strengthens, and when interest rates decline, the dollar falls.

Interest rates are unlikely to decline from where they are. The Federal Funds rate is at historical lows and the budget deficit is putting real pressure on bonds, and lower bond prices mean higher interest rates.

Because the dollar follows interest rates, the dollar is expected to rise or, at worst, not decline much further. And since dollar denominated metal prices, such as gold, are inversely correlated to the dollar's exchange rate, they are expected to be heading lower.

But if you look at the relationship between the dollar's exchange rate and the Federal Funds rate some interesting observations can be made. The Federal Funds rate increased by more than three hundred percent from 1972 to 1974 with only a minor impact on the dollar, if any. The Federal Funds rate started soaring in 1977 but it wasn't until about 1981 that the dollar responded. It seems then, that the Federal Funds rate can increase without causing a strengthening in the dollar. And when the dollar does respond to significantly higher interest rates, it may do so only after a lag of several years.

So could interest rates rise in the current environment without leading to a stronger dollar?

Many people make light of the trade and budget deficits of the United States. It's understandable: their repercussions may not be felt for decades, or years, or months, so why worry?

But the dual deficits are not to be ignored; they are already influencing our investments.

The US government is running a four hundred billion dollar annual deficit that has to be financed by issuing more US Treasury bonds. An increase in bond issuances causes bond prices to fall, thereby increasing bond yields and raising interest rates. But the economy is in no shape to absorb higher interest rates.

According to the Census Bureau the number of Americans living in poverty increased by 1.3 million last year and the number of Americans without health insurance increased by 1.4 million. It was the third annual increase for both categories. There are now 35.8 million people living under the poverty line (12.5% of the population) and 45 million people without health insurance (15.6%).

If the percentage of people living in poverty increases, the number of consumers who can spend us out of a recession diminishes. And ditto for those without health insurance. Do you really think that a family without health insurance is going to buy a new SUV every couple of years?

Of course, most Americans are feeling wealthy because of their inflated home equity. House prices are still at obscene levels, especially in certain areas of California.

But in California the median price of homes declined 1.1% in July, compared to June, and real estate agents found themselves with an increasing amount of inventory. Overall, existing home sales declined 2.9% from June to July. Could that be because interest rates and mortgage rates are rising?

About two thirds of US economic activity is due to consumer spending. Higher interest rates not only increase the cost of living, they could also precipitate a decline in house prices, seriously hurting the economy: many people will "all of a sudden" feel a lot poorer. And people who are worried about money don't spend as much as those who feel wealthy.

Thus higher interest rates can cause serious damage to the US economy, which is why many believe interest rates will not rise significantly from where they are.

Consider, however, that the US government currently has $4.3 trillion in debt that is held by the public (including foreign governments). That means the current government deficit of roughly four hundred billion will add nine percent to the outstanding debt this year and because of the War on Terrorism the deficit is likely to grow, and it has to be financed by selling more debt. That is why the budget deficit is having an impact on our investments.

The budget deficit is already causing interest rates in the US to rise. As long as the deficit continues to grow, interest rates will continue to rise, whether the economy can handle it, or not.

Now, when the economy slows down as interest rates rise, as the economy inevitably will, then the trade deficit will come into play.

The trade deficit requires almost seven hundred billion dollars of foreign investment in the US each year. These investments are mainly the purchase of government debt by the Japanese, Chinese and British governments. But they are not the only ones buying US debt: private foreign investors are also contributing and price is set on the margin. That means that when the US economy is no longer attractive to those private investors the US dollar can decline even if there is no decline in the purchases of US treasuries from the governments that are supporting the dollar.

So can we really say that the dollar, and by extension, the gold price, is solely dependent on the Federal Funds rate? I think not. I also think that ignoring the dual deficits is a mistake since they both are, and will continue to be, of paramount importance to our investments.

This is an election year so I expect the market to be unfocused and directionless. But next year is a different story. I would be surprised if the dollar were higher by the end of next year, which is another way of saying I would be surprised if the gold price were lower.

Paul van Eeden





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[richgit] 31/8/2004 19:51

Biswell,
Are you having a metal breakdown?

[biswell] 31/8/2004 17:40

Gold macd rolling over

B

[mieke] 31/8/2004 16:01

Biswell as I recall you have NEVER called AVM correctly - thats why we all use you as a contraindicator

[budevenwiser] 31/8/2004 15:58

yep bisbash will give you that regarding the dollar chart bowl or dome pattern forming i also noted that last night could also be inverted head and shoulders as well if it breaks thru 90 strongly

[biswell] 31/8/2004 15:54

The $ is getting stronger note RSI levels...just taking a bit of a breather is all



The 50 and 200 MA's are Xing again within a few weeks ....this time they will be heading higher
B

[biswell] 31/8/2004 15:51

Just in case you missed it see this...and read the writing



B

[biswell] 31/8/2004 15:48

I have called AVM many times if you look back on this thread from Jan...I think in every case AVM has fallen.

If you want to see a bowl shaped chart in the making look at this



B

[supersturrock] 31/8/2004 15:26

Have a small profit on a few AVM but do not visit this thread much. EPS consensus seems to be 6.2p for a PER of over 13 - so can anyone please tell me in a couple of sentences why these are still considered " cheap" ?.

[richgit] 31/8/2004 15:18

His shorts have split,and his titanium balls have just hit the concrete.

[andy] 31/8/2004 15:18

biswell,

Please keep it up, POG and AVM are "sliding" UPWARDS with every doom and gloom post from your goodself!

[carntyne] 31/8/2004 15:15

B You're barmy. Sliding !!!!!!!! Do you actually look beyond the end of your nose ?

[biswell] 31/8/2004 15:04

I don't think so...consumer spending in the US now out of control V personal incomes as yesterdays data showed.

Rates must rise to stop it, means stronger $

AVM at peak 80p again and gold falling back once more

AVM 50p a much more likely scenario than 100p as gold slides

B

[budevenwiser] 31/8/2004 10:53

have to note that the 50dma has now passed back up thru the 200dma which as you all know is very bullish , price seems to be behaving like it did when avm completed a parabolic bowl at 39p and then doubled from there to a closing high of 78p Cliff Droke reckons that if the bowl is completed you can usually measure from the top in the centre to the bottom and that will give you a minimum upside which from 78p down to 55p is 23p which is 101p ( like last year 39p down to 22p which is 17p =56p before first proper pullback )so if it follows last year 78p minimum 156p first target 101p then a good pullback main reason to buy though is that AVM is so cheap all imho wealth warning and all that