Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[whatsup32] 24/2/2024 11:14

On tube there was mention that NVDA had orders to end of 2025 (that’s 2 whole years) and excludes any new orders received during that time . They have a massive lead over others who are trying to get into the same market.
Last quarter YOY results were

Net Income + 768%
Revenue. + 265%
EPS. + 764%
Net Margin + 137%

NVDA is a juggernaut of a company with sales and profits in Billions. Increasing Net Income by 768% is huge. share price valid

Skinny for the first 5-10 years MSFT went nowhere, after 9/11 American government decided to not allow foreigners to buy and sell shares in USA for those who did not have a U.S. address. I had the choice of just letting it sit there . They did me a huge favour.

[skinny] 24/2/2024 11:11

Whatsup - no disagreements here!

Some shares - MSFT being an example, have recovered their techboom highs, many more never have.

If you'd bought at the height of the TB, you would have lost two thirds of your money before it hit your $25 buy price.

BTW - that's some chart on MSFT!



FWIW - I had much larger paper losses in 1987, when the FTSE went from @2500 ---> 1500 - but they were paper losses.

[whatsup32] 24/2/2024 10:46

Skinny . I bought MSFT 24 years ago c$25 and left it alone with dividends reinvested. It's now 410 .
Along the line I was told to sell as it was overpriced at $100 , 200 , 300 and now $400 .
Calling the top or bottom is difficult, best to buy a quality company and hold . Aviva fits the bill .

[skinny] 24/2/2024 09:39

Aviva lost 75% of its value in the following 2.5 years.

[skinny] 24/2/2024 09:35

Just one off topic comment "NVDA making profits like there is no tomorrow as is MSFT and others."

Remember CSCO (and plenty of others)- "For fiscal 2000, Cisco reported revenue of $18.93 billion, a 55-percent increase when compared with revenue of $12.17 billion in fiscal 1999."

"Pro forma net income was $3.91 billion or $0.53 per share for fiscal 2000, compared with pro forma net income of $2.52 billion or $0.36 per share for fiscal 1999, increases of 56 percent and 47 percent, respectively."

And look what happened next :-



Obviously history may not repeat itself......

[yump] 24/2/2024 09:11

Isn’t the issue what happened to the non- dotcom stocks when the bubble burst. Seeing as AV is not an AI stock.

[rongetsrich] 23/2/2024 21:45

Perhaps now is the time hedge oil or energy providers, just not in th U k?

[pj84] 23/2/2024 20:03

xongkudu todays article in the Telegraph is along those lines.

"The five warning signs that we’re at the start of another 2000-style stock market bubble.

Parallels between the dotcom hysteria of the past and today's AI revolution are uncanny."

It starts off with this;

"History does not repeat, but it rhymes. I was reminded of this truism this week when I compared the recent stock market performance of Nvidia with that of Cisco Systems in the two years leading up to the bursting of the dotcom bubble in the spring of 2000. The similarity of the two charts is striking.

In both cases, the share price trebled in a matter of a few months, then paused for breath for a few months more before turning left up the page as the fear of missing out sucked in the doubters. Nvidia had risen by more than 50pc since the start of the year before this week’s wobble.

Both companies’ shares increased sevenfold in less than two years. Nvidia remains close to its all-time high, and on Thursday helped push Japan’s Nikkei 225 past its 1989 bubble peak. What happens next is one of the most important questions in investment right now."

...

It concludes "I think that if we are in a bubble, it is still young. The valuation premium is well short of the level reached in 1999 or even in the early 1970s, when the most popular shares were priced nearly twice as expensively as the rest of the pack.

We are a long way off that today. Sentiment is not yet universally positive. When it becomes so, it will be time to worry. We’re not there yet."




I would add that from another article in the Telegraph today;

"The stock price leap came after Nvidia reported that its quarterly revenues had climbed 265pc to more than $22bn. Its full-year revenues more than doubled to $60bn."



265pc is a huge climb in quarterly revenues so it isn't just hype but real sales.

I realise the above is off topic but it was in response to a general question posted and as a small plug I am invested in the Polar Capital Technology Trust which has 8.4% of it's funds in Nvidia and the discount has widened today to 11% and hasn't yet recognised todays increase in NAV.

[carpingtris] 23/2/2024 17:33

Waiting for the FTSE to have its Dow Jones/Nasdaq moment... maybe a US sell off will trigger it?? People will want to park cash somewhere instead of the US.. Then I woke up..

Still one of my holds as can't think of anywhere else to place the funds.

[whatsup32] 23/2/2024 17:00

Xongkudu

The problem with getting out is what do you do with the proceeds. If you bank it you get a few percent which does not keep up with inflation so unless Stocks take a dive world wide it doesn’t make sense.
Regards internet bubble , not sure I agree. NVDA making profits like there is no tomorrow as is MSFT and others.
Even property has stabilised and with rates likely to go down and government wanting 99% mortgages is likely to go up.

I’m up 12% and likely to hold as I don’t see a solid buy elsewhere.

[xongkudu] 23/2/2024 15:16

I’m out. Nothing to do with Aviva but everything is very toppy in the US (record highs) and I fear a crash is coming. It reminds me of the internet bubble.

Any thoughts welcome.

[1robbob] 23/2/2024 14:54

understood muscle

[muscletrade] 23/2/2024 14:30

Hi Rob, some explanation from me...I mentioned the energy price cap news from OFGEM as in my view it goes in some part to inflation expectations, ergo interest rates, ergo effect on our investments.
Did not intend to rant but the stupidity of their press release and unnecessary impact on every household in the uk just annoyed the hell out of me.
Apologies for the distraction.

[1robbob] 23/2/2024 12:02

Another morning of very low volume; less than 1m shares traded
Still looks like no one wants to be short in front of the Results.

It is tempting to suggest that after the strong relative and absolute run recently
the share price could back off following the Results, no matter how good they may be.
BUT
With the shares not going xd until 11th April, over a month after the results, they may well hold up and even maintain the momentum

As to the Results: No one understands the reported annual P&L Accounts of Insurance Companies (even our Gurus on this Group!!). I suspect the standout figures will be
a 7% increase in the dividend (22.3p final making 33.4p for the year) with a promise of similar increase for 2024 and a Share Buyback of £350m-£375m (to equate to 3% of the outstanding equity)

[smurfy2001] 23/2/2024 11:20

Steady as she goes.

[1robbob] 23/2/2024 10:38

And back to Insurance and AV

[fenners66] 23/2/2024 10:11

I think there may be an element of "green levy" built into the standing charge - which is oxymoronic if it is.
Use less energy and save the planet - but get charged anyway because if you don't use any energy we cannot subsidise the "green energy"

[carpingtris] 23/2/2024 09:54

Yes that £28 charge for all of us is a disgrace!
Bet a lot of those who default still have holidays, pets and smoke!

[muscletrade] 23/2/2024 08:45

Quite. While I am ok with emergency measures to deal with parabolic energy price increases we should be encouraging return to normal market conditions ASAP when emergency situation resolved.

This quote from the announcement does not make senseto me at all."Ofgem will allow suppliers a temporary additional payment of £28 per year “to make sure suppliers have sufficient funds to support customers who are struggling”.

If memory serves Centrica just announced record breaking profits. How the hell does that jive with allowing suppliers a temporary additional payment of £28...presumably through the mechanism of standing charges.

What planet is OFGEM actually living on?

For info the latest standing charges announced by BG in their New low deal increased
by £50 a year and total 95.85p per. day. so your annual bill is ONlY £350 if you actually use no energy at all.

I don't think centrica need any help from ofgem in agreeing to an additional payment of £28, when they have just two weeks ago increased their standing charges by £45.

[fenners66] 23/2/2024 08:30

All part of our socialist govts approach. Everyone pays for everyone else. If someone defaults we all pay in advance.
If someone cannot shop around for insurance at renewal , we all pay higher prices as the lazy should not be charged more than the new customer anymore.

Eventually there will be little incentive to try harder - communism.

[muscletrade] 23/2/2024 07:58

7.35am: Energy price cap to fall to £1,690

The price cap, which sets a maximum rate per unit that can be charged to customers for their energy use, will fall by 12.3% on the previous quarter from 1 April until 30 June 2024.

This equates to £1,690 per year for an average household paying by direct debit for dual fuel, a drop of £238 year on year.

Households should save around £20 a month under the price cap.

Jonathan Brearley, chief executive of Ofgem, warned there was more to do to ensure fair rates for customers.

“This is good news to see the price cap drop to its lowest level in more than two years – and to see energy bills for the average household drop by £690 since the peak of the crisis – but there are still big issues that we must tackle head-on to ensure we build a system that’s more resilient for the long term and fairer to customers.

Ofgem will allow suppliers a temporary additional payment of £28 per year “to make sure suppliers have sufficient funds to support customers who are struggling”,

The energy price cap was introduced by the government and has been in place since January 2019

Considering that gas prices are back to 2012 levels one might expect that the price of UK energy should/would drop well below the price cap.(Especially if OFGEM would stop the nonsense of allowing even encouraging increases in daily charges to protect suppliers and those struggling to pay their bills etc etc). If the market was to behave properly there should be a proliferation of new energy deal being offered by suppliers which would help customers and also help bring down inflation and ergo the economy.As I have mentioned previously BG have already offered new contracts a couple of weeks ago which will go down in tandem with the figures just announced . With luck a price war will break out to the downside.

[cjac39] 22/2/2024 20:13

Hopefully you all noted my buys at 424 and the skill therein! Joking apart it’s just obvious to buy aviva. I haven’t started selling my Mng yet but I’m reallocating here.


I’ve been thinking a lot about who wins post consumer duty and of course ever thus its consumer owners. who owns the relationship? Intermediaries : quilters, asset managers, platforms eg HL, even inv trusts, are all going to be nailed under consumer duty if you take it to end extreme and have to demonstrate for every penny you take off a retail client what you have done. But the relationship owner ie the Ifa can still do this as they have a direct service. So I think all intermediaries will all get smoked and it will be a direct bargain between ifas & clients and investors who do niche things + etfs for core exposure.


Ultimately I think the FCA will try and push hourly rate charging or pay as you go which will destroy the advice industry but seemingly they don’t value advice