Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[muscletrade] 02/2/2024 06:45

(MT Newswires) -- Bruce Van Saun, CEO of Citizens Financial Group, says the problems faced by the banking industry last year have largely been resolved. He notes that some bank failures were due to aggressive corporate strategies and overly rapid growth, problems that were exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rapid rise in interest rates.

Bruce Van Saun notes that the regional banks managed the interest rate risk well, which helped to stabilise deposits over the year, leading to a return to normal. He was surprised by the problems at New York Community Bank (NYCB), which he regards as an isolated case, but which nevertheless created concern in the market, particularly for commercial real estate.

He points out that unrealized losses in commercial real estate have not yet been fully recognized and that some banks may have to increase their provisions. For Citizens Financial Group, Van Saun says that their commercial property portfolio is in good shape, although they are particularly focused on the office sector, which is under pressure due to a slow recovery and higher interest rates.

[muscletrade] 02/2/2024 06:01

Shades of last March.

[muscletrade] 02/2/2024 05:58

As others have mentioned yesterdays price action probably associated with US. Financials in the US S&P500 had a very tough time yesterday. Among them Met Life down 6.5%,Citizens down almost 6%,Zions Bank down 8% etc etc

[cyberian] 01/2/2024 17:20

Fair comments from you both so many thanks. I will add on any further dips as recent broker reports were well researched and in my opinion well balanced in content.

[yump] 01/2/2024 17:12

Looking back to 2019 AV has been in a fixed range apart from 2020. So at the current price, given the interest rates are now way higher than 2019 and AV is an income stock, I would say its getting a fairly rational / average amount of love.

Everything has been marked down today, so a bit of (temporary?) bottom fishing might be in order in the next few days...

Every stock it seems now has a worry attached for one reason or another, some bizarrely. Unless the wind stops, UKW is back to where it was a while ago, which seems daft. However good any reports are, they're all being hit. The sun is still there last time I looked, so solar trusts seem a sensible buy NESF had a good update.

Easy for me to say as I've just had some things mature and for once the market is rubbish, rather than good, when I'm looking to buy. Last time is was after the fullish recovery from the financial crisis - Doh !

[roundtheworld] 01/2/2024 17:08

Cyberian- it's just an excuse to force out weaker investors. No real substance to any of it. Hold firm and buy on the dips if you can.

[cyberian] 01/2/2024 16:29

I am interested as to why this issue (CRE) has suddenly resurfaced when the FED, BoE have stated that interest rates are set to fall and in the UK mortgage rates have already done so to a modest extent. The US 10 year rate has been steady and down quite a lot in recent weeks so again not too sure of any real concern. The 30 year Treasury bond yield has fallen from 5.15% not so long ago to 4.08% today.This is especially when banks have been more careful in managing their exposure and the FED and other Central Banks would step in on any signs of market panic. Just look at the FED Chairman's comments today about "good news" and the economy becoming stronger in a less inflationary way. Better days ahead but made to be a little more patient on interest rate falls.
Powell's comment today was "I would like to see investors to treat good news as good news" Yesterday his drive was to keep a lid on inflation and to calm expectations on the timing of interest rates and thereby influence that reality (decline in inflation). Generally he expressed his view that the US economy was strong and more balanced and that he wants this to continue.

[smurfy2001] 01/2/2024 16:25

“The market reaction was not positive,” said Peter Schaffrik, chief European macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “The BoE turned less hawkish, but relative to market expectation it wasn’t strong enough.”

[1jat] 01/2/2024 16:14

CRE? Commercial Real Estate?
The mutual funds offered by insurers/fund managers have not been able to operate effectively for a while and are forced sellers.

A lot of the private debt / private assets will be secured on commercial real estate…so if there is a major problem for banks, it may well start to impact Annuity insurers who use about 40% private assets to back their long term liabilities….but with a difference that they are not forced sellers… so the pain will be slow.

[eurofox] 01/2/2024 16:05

I suspect the whole sector is being affected by the CRE crisis that is beginning to have dire consequences for banks in USA and Japan and soon here.

[muscletrade] 01/2/2024 16:00

If one reviews the records I think you will find that the Uk market always goes down when our esteemed BOE Governor says something.

[cyberian] 01/2/2024 13:22

Looks like we are unloved at present so now only expect some forward momentum once interest rates fall. However, we should have some good Y/E figures to come which may help a re-rating. I guess that I should just be patient and not be tempted to trade a few of my current holdings. My recent added buys appear to be mis-timed, but that's life. We were at this level just 2 weeks ago on 17th January at 424p so not a disaster just yet!

[cwa1] 31/1/2024 20:45

Further on the Jefferies note:-

[cyberian] 31/1/2024 12:26

CWA1. That is very welcome news as 3Q 2023 figures were very strong and I cannot foresee any deterioration. A re-rating is long overdue and one just has to be patient. I am not sure whether tomorrow's announcement by the BoE will have that much influence as mortgage rates are already falling and hopefully that trend will continue. Despite the comments yesterday by the IMF I personally believe that Hunt is a sensible man and his shadow Reeves seems very much inclined not to upset the City in any way, even on not putting a cap on bankers bonuses as quoted today!! I think we have a steady hand on the UK economic tiller whoever is in power after the election.

[cwa1] 31/1/2024 10:22

Jefferies raises Aviva price target to 490 (480) pence - 'buy'

[1robbob] 30/1/2024 17:07

I just wonder?

M&G have been a very firm market over the last several months !!!!

[cyberian] 30/1/2024 16:01

Phew!!! added some more at close to the low SO FAR (!) today. I did review updates from company earlier last year and see that a presentation on their General Insurance business was given on 25th January with a brief update on the financials for that sector. BoE decision etc on Thursday of limited concern IMO as interest rates appear to have peaked and only timing and pace of further falls is a question. Provided the FED is reasonable in its latest reviews/comments and Lagarde in EU continues to suggest downtrend there we should be OK.
Further I looked carefully again at the 3Q 2023 figures and again saw little to worry me and hopefully a few others here on the BB. They were VERY strong and momentum as seen by UBS and JPMorgan seem realistic.

[smurfy2001] 30/1/2024 15:46

tuftymatt wins.

[cyberian] 30/1/2024 15:44

Company update for Y/E 2023 perhaps?

[tuftymatt] 30/1/2024 15:36

BOE rate decision??

[cyberian] 30/1/2024 15:23

smurfy2001...what is expected Thursday? Hope I have not missed something important. After such an encouraging start at 440p this fall maybe due to some investors switching to LGEN where I remain, despite being a strong holder in my preferred AVIVA.

Guess I may have to add again after my earlier 433p flurry, hence my interest about Thursday.

[smurfy2001] 30/1/2024 15:15

Let's see what happens on Thursday.