Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[makinbuks] 05/10/2023 11:38

Completely agree spud. Ignore the value the market places on the business, focus on the business performance and particularly cash generation. Just sit back and let if happen. The market will re-price eventually

[smurfy2001] 05/10/2023 11:09

I'be been checking the betaville site and there's nothing there about Aviva unless it was removed after seekingalpha posted the rumour.

[spud] 05/10/2023 09:29

A £12b bid ain't going to get it over the line! I believe one bid would solicit more and a bid circa £18-20b should do it.However I'm extremely sceptical about this news (I personally don't want it taken out as it forms the backbone of my income portfolio) and any bid now would be premature. Give it another 5 years to fully mature (and us to collect the generous dividend) and let's see bids in the mid to high £20b range.spud

[richie1218] 05/10/2023 09:19

As the Aviva share price rises, will Allianz make a move?

Aviva stock price bounced back on Wednesday this week.

This move was triggered by the rumours that Allianz would make a bid.

I believe that Aviva is a good and undervalued company.

viva (LON: AV) share price bounced back this week amid rumours that the company will be acquired. After falling to a low of 375.7p on Tuesday, the shares jumped to a high of 395p. It has been in a consolidation phase in the past few months.

Will Allianz make a bid?
The biggest catalyst for the Aviva share price is the ongoing rumours that the company could be acquired. The likely acquirer would be Allianz, the German insurance giant that has operations around the world.

This would be a big deal. For one, Allianz is one of the biggest companies in the industry with a market cap of more than €88 billion. Aviva, on the other hand, is a leading British insurer with over £10 billion in market cap. Therefore, a potential bid would likely value Aviva at at least £12 billion.

The combination would create a giant in the insurance industry. Aviva had over £16 billion in revenues in 2022 while Allianz had £132 billion. Also, the two companies would have over £1.4 trillion in assets.

It is unclear whether Allianz or any other large insurance or private equity groups will be interested in Aviva. However, I believe that such a bid makes sense since Aviva has implemented a successful turnaround strategy.

As part of this approach, the company has exited some of its international businesses as it focuses on its areas of strength. It recently decided to sell its 25.9% stake in Singlife joint venture to Sumitomo Life for £800 million. That was a good deal since the business gave it just £17 million in operating profit in 2022.

Aviva also sold Aviva France in 2021 to Aema Groupe for £2.8 billion. In all, it has sold non-core businesses worth over £5 billion. And most recently,it bought AIG UK’s life business for $563 million.

Aviva’s business is doing well
Aviva’s operations are doing well, which makes it a viable acquisition target. Its most recent results showed that its operating profit rose by 8% to £715 million while its solvency II ratio jumped by 26% to £648 million. In all, the company grew its sales, profitability and dividends in a highly challenging market.

Aviva believes that its operating profit this year will be ~£1.35 billion, meaning that the company is abit undervalued. Also, Aviva’s price to book ratio stands at 1.1x, lower than that of key peers like Prudential, Legal & General, and Admiral Group. A DCF valuation also sees the Aviva share price being undervalued by ~35%.

It is unclear whether a company like Allianz or even Generali will make a bid or whether Aviva will accept that proposal.

[engelbert1969] 05/10/2023 08:50

I'm with ii and it's showing as pending so I can't get my hands on it yet. Should be available as usual this morning tho.
Oh how I miss the Freetrade 5 working day wait... not!

[pvi1] 05/10/2023 07:57

Checked mine at 6am and already in with interactive investor

[cwa1] 05/10/2023 07:57

With ii. They seem to be the pick of the bunch for me for quick dividend payments. Most others appear during dividend pay day, which I think is acceptable. Usually iWeb/Halifax the day after which is not ideal but OK I suppose if it's a low cost provider. Then there's Barclays who may pay out...at some point...when they feel like it...

[watfordhornet] 05/10/2023 07:52

That's quick - who are you withWith HL not even worth checking till lunch at earliest

[cwa1] 05/10/2023 07:36

Given how miserable shares have been of late it's excellent to see a big chunky Avivia dividend in the account first thing this morning :-)

[muscletrade] 05/10/2023 06:56

little more colour on the Jeffries upgrade for those who have not read it.

Shares in Aviva PLC (LSE:AV.) have jumped 2.2% to 383.90p after broker Jefferies upgraded to buy from hold with a 480p price target.

“We forecast Aviva to deliver a best-in-class capital return yield, underpinned by excess capital and the strongest free cash flow amongst peers,” it said.

Earnings should start to shift towards capital-light business, which is well-timed given improving market conditions, and should warrant a premium valuation versus peers, Jefferies added.

Jefferies forecasts £5.3 billion of capital returns between 2023-26, equivalent to 51% of Aviva's current market cap, underpinned by a strong solvency II ratio (2023 forecast: 205%) and the best free cash flow yield versus UK life insurance peers.

It said its capital generation forecasts for 2025 (£1.69 billion) are 10% ahead of consensus largely driven by a more positive outlook in general insurance.

Further sales are possible and Jefferies views it as “increasingly likely” that Aviva will also sell its operations in India and China which could sell for more than £1 billion, funding additional special capital returns or M&A.

[blackhorse23] 05/10/2023 04:17

Switching to WJG

[cyberian] 04/10/2023 23:33

salver...well noted on wrong market cap. shown on advfn. Someone earlier also mentioned a remote possibility of a bid here and mentioned Allianz which I see has a Mkt. Cap. of Euro 89 billion or £77 billion. Food for thought with their net income running close to Euros 9,25 billion or £ 8 billion

[salver2] 04/10/2023 22:45

They’ve got the market cap completely wrong on the site should be double

[sam9092] 04/10/2023 21:09

31 million shares traded today. Was that just on Jefferies positive affirmation ? Hell of alot traded just for lifting price target to 480? Should be interesting tomorrow following dividend payment

[dope007] 04/10/2023 20:36

The whole.... I hate predictive text

[dope007] 04/10/2023 20:35

You can buy are whole insurance sector for the amount Tesla has risen in mkt cap today after missing delivery numbers days ago. It's laughable that mkts can allow such utter lunacy to happen

[pvi1] 04/10/2023 19:39

For once I actually agree with Jibba. There's been too many aviva takeover rumours over the years. Won't be holding my breath.

[justiceforthemany] 04/10/2023 18:34

Phoenix and LGEN will be next.
Bargain for foreign investors.
Decade lows.

[jubberjim] 04/10/2023 17:57

Doubting Thomas here

Wasn't it only a few days ago that we had a director selling a few shares

I'm taking it all with a big pinch of salt for time being

Time will tell whether I have made the right call

But it should promote opportunities for those of us with cash available

Unfortunately not as much as previously

Curses the big four banks leading me astray

Hold tight.might be bumpy ride

[cfro] 04/10/2023 17:47

Not surprised by the takeover rumours. The whole insurance/life insurance sector is up for grabs imo at these stupid prices and high yields..

[careful] 04/10/2023 16:19

I suspect that the bond rout is showing signs this afternoon of easing.
When bond yields start to fall and the capital values of them rise there could be a rush back into them suddenly.

A melt up that professionals would not like to miss.

Very important for the Aviva.

October could be interesting.

[richie1218] 04/10/2023 16:18

I thought that that 450p by Thursday was on the cards for minute then lol
it could get a bit of a leg up tomorrow though imo after the Takeover news is digested overnight.
gla

[smurfy2001] 04/10/2023 16:15

Aviva could return more than £5bn to investors

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1028643/aviva-could-return-more-than-5bn-to-investors-1028643.html

Jefferies forecasts £5.3 billion of capital returns between 2023-26, equivalent to 51% of Aviva's current market cap, underpinned by a strong solvency II ratio (2023 forecast: 205%) and the best free cash flow yield versus UK life insurance peers.