Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[dr biotech] 05/2/2021 11:06

Problem is if you are basing the shareprice on the dividend, then we should already be in that range. It seems that years of low growth means that a higher than average yield is needed to compensate.

Good to see Sibley hang in there too. He's never going to win any awards for aesthesics, but we need someone to just bat time. Nice to see it on free to air too. I think Sky's coverage is excellent, but it needs a wider audience.

[muscletrade] 05/2/2021 10:29

Im sure cjacj39 would be happy to update us. :) Root just scored a century. Rejoice.

[muscletrade] 05/2/2021 10:24

Value of new Aviva light ? Depends upon a number of variables not least macro economic conditions, how much of the excess cash Aviva reinvests in core light etc. However we know that they would be very strong financially (low debt). We also know that 21P is the current "safe" dividend. So working backwards from the dividend of 21p represents a decent yield of 4% to 5% then trading range could be 420p to 525p.

Another almost certainly better way is to go back and review the Aviva light valuation that the insurance experts on here have already come up with at the end of November.

[eurofox] 05/2/2021 10:23

I don't know - I go out for an early morning walk and look what happens. Won't top up now unless it retraces to the low.

[devonbeachbum] 05/2/2021 09:47

Yeah, not the best couple of days to end the week but the upward trend is still good. And plenty of excess cash to keep us all guessing what they intend doing with it, so happy days.

Interested to see what the trading range is going to be for Aviva lite when the dust settles post pandemic. Pre Pandemic it could be anywhere between 350 and 440 going back to October 18. Seeing the boards intention was to increase Shareholder value any thoughts on where Lite version may trade minus sale of parts?

[muscletrade] 05/2/2021 09:00

Having said that, I would love to read the rationale behind Exanes note today(if anyone has it) and see how it compares to what Morgan Stanley had to say a few days ago and indeed what the company has already told us and we know the divestment plan is well underway.
As of this morning the company is vaued at 13.4Bln, yet the plan is to raise approx 7 to 8 Bln with divestments and reduced scr, of which 3bln will be used to retire debt. That still leaves roughly 5Bln to be used to invest in the new Core and /or return to shareholders. So Exane is valuing the current Core at 5.5Bln ????

[muscletrade] 05/2/2021 08:30

Hardly surprising that there are profit takers around. Since 30th October to 4th Feb the share price had increased 40%.Excellent investment if you invested in October at 255P. Still a crock if you had bought at 550P

[uppompeii] 05/2/2021 08:15

It's a crock, has been since about 2000

[p0pper] 05/2/2021 08:15

Bloody nightmare really, Av. making billions a year and potentially having billions swell the coffers soon and we are well down, big oilers are losing money hand over fist in a shrinking industry and they are up, ffs. bloody markets, sorry rant over. :)

[igoe104] 05/2/2021 08:12

Every bloody Friday these seem to go down. Traders cashing in for the weekend probably.

[muscletrade] 05/2/2021 07:02

@1rob, Debt reduction is nailed on at £3bln following the Av presentation.

[1robbob] 04/2/2021 18:00

mondex
>Also, there may be a 4th option, an acquisition.
Agreed could be?

100p Spec Dividend total guess!!
...so was the rest of my post!!, I just wanted to highlight the fact that the asset sales are so large that many uses of the proceeds are likely/possible

[ianood] 04/2/2021 17:57

Mondex 4th option could pre empt all of the above after the sales already in train are agreed?

[mondex] 04/2/2021 17:42

Remind me please why we think the special dividend will be in the region of 100 pps?

Also, there may be a 4th option, an acquisition.

[1robbob] 04/2/2021 17:34

Although I am totally against buybacks, we have to be realistic in our expectations of AV

The sheer amount od excess capital being raised, perhaps circa £7.5bn plus Solvency release, will more than likely be spent on all three of the alternatives:
Buy-back of 10% of equity = 400m shsres = £1.75bn
Special Dividends = 100pps = £4bn
Debt reduction = remainder = £2bn+

[mark1000] 04/2/2021 16:54

I do wonder what the big institutional investors prefer is it a special divi or a buy back? are there any tax reasons why they should favour one over another. At the end of the day does it boil down to the directors best interests none of them want to pay 40% income tax when its 28% on a capital though most of us on here have seen buy backs which have never resulted in much of a return to shareholders.

[cyberian] 04/2/2021 15:06

Dr. Biotech...you are 100% correct...it was moved and I must say he looks rather Grand and Majestic where he now stands...there is a tablet on the stone beneath the statue that recalls all the details. I am so pleased for your post...let's applaud our until recently medical research people in the UK...they are the leaders although other countries are equally rising to the task. What is amazing is that the political parties have in the past been so biased/cautious on medical investment, and now are having to throw Billions to support the latter and hold up the economic needs as a consequence of under investment. Hope they now start to get a better handle on management of all aspects of spending...HS2 is totally mis-placed/directed and technically already way behind the current technology curve.

eurofox...I am not sure why AV. have not cashed in the substantial gains they hold on their Signature Aviation holding of circa 4.62%...they appear to be selling very small chunks...maybe they believe that there will be a late higher counter bidder from Bill Gates and that Group..

[eurofox] 04/2/2021 14:46

Hope we get a nice return on the Signature Aviation investments

[dr biotech] 04/2/2021 14:35

Jenners statue was originally in Trafalgar Square, but was moved after protests from antivaxxers and the military soon after (I think after the death of Prince Albert). 150 years on despite the eradication of small pox and the near eradication of polio we still have the same problems.

[alphorn] 04/2/2021 14:35

Quite tempted to add to my option positions. A September 350 write gives around 30p, so that covers me down to 320p if it get taken. Tempting.

[eurofox] 04/2/2021 14:30

added at 350p