Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[wba1] 01/2/2021 10:46

RCTurner2; probably not wise to talk correlations on here anyway. Insurers hate one way analysis - it is why we use GLM. 😉

[rcturner2] 01/2/2021 10:36

"I have noticed a strong correlation between anti-vaxxers and the brexity portion of the population."

Well perhaps you need to consider what is meant by the word "correlation"?

The leave vote in the uk was 17.4m people.

Vaccine take up in the UK is actually very high well above 90%.

You should compare a country such as France which is much more pro EU and guess what also has a much higher anti-vaccination movement.

[wba1] 01/2/2021 10:30

I may have missed it in earlier posts, but I do not recall seeing specific dates for final offers for the European operations (only late February). This morning there is a report at Futur en Seine that the final submission dates are February 22 for France and February 26 for Poland binding offers.

There have now been several reports saying that the indicative bid from Macif was 3.5bn euro, a significant increase on the 3.2bn originally reported. This seems to suggest that the competition is increasing the value of the disposals beyond the original expectations (which were initially below even the 3.2bn for France). Given that Eurazeo are reported to have submitted an indicative bid of 3.2-3.3bn it seems unlikely France will go for less than the Macif bid. I am thinking it could even make 3.7-3.8.

[mo123] 01/2/2021 09:06

If UK joins the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Will AV benefit in any way with Canada being a member.
IE does AV pay tariffs on Canadian services?

[1robbob] 31/1/2021 15:05

whatsup32

I have severe doubts as to the importance of public uterances from 'Aviva Investors' They seem to have a huge PR operation to promote their investment views on an almost daily basis.

If the money they manage is 'ours' ie shareholders, the investment strategy has no need to be publicised

If the money they manage is external. The information is of little or no interest to Aviva shareholders

I strongly suspect that Aviva Investors could save £000,000's on needless PR

Perhaps I misunderstand?

[wba1] 31/1/2021 14:46

And add the excess GI profits from reduced claims on motor, hh, liability classes etc (but add in the £250m net after reinsurance for BI claims). I would be surprised if GI was not £500m better off in 2020 than 2019.......but as I have said before, do not expect it to be declared. Reserving is there to smooth profits.

[whatsup32] 31/1/2021 14:44

FT ‘Aviva will use its ‘ultimate sanction’ to force action on global warming’

Aviva invest will divest from 30 oil gas mining and utility unless they do more to tackle climate change

[1robbob] 31/1/2021 14:39

cjac39....You got my drift !!!!

.....'either way, 21p is affordable and can increase. plus as discussed the proceeds of sales less debt repmt and a new target s2 solvency margin will allow a release of surplus capital'

Eps of circa 50p must surely justify a share price of 350p+?(yield=6%)..... in addition to any Special Divs

The risk of being out of this stock is much greater than the risk of being in

[cjac39] 31/1/2021 14:18

pg 11 interim preso 1rob gives HY19 numbers ie undisturbed pre CV GI numbers:

life and isr 812
gi 332 (i think eur gi might be in here but not sure)
corp costs 100 (this shld go down materially but we shall see)
debt costs 199 (this will go down obv on debt repmt)

so if you say 1/3 out of debt / corp on reduced size you can still get to say 920-950 so annualised close to 2.

if they slowed down new uk annuities the cashflows would increase materially but at the expense of new business profits which is a meaningful part of above op profit.

either way, 21p is affordable and can increase. plus as discussed the proceeds of sales less debt repmt and a new target s2 solvency margin will allow a release of surplus capital

[1robbob] 31/1/2021 13:51

Can Aviva UK, Ireland & Canada make £2bn..ie eps of 50p ?

[spud] 30/1/2021 20:35

Rich - This isn't relevant to AV. spud

[richyggg] 30/1/2021 20:26

The brexity portion of the population are the decent people of this country, which are the majority.
That you continue to slur them does you no credit. The sharp-elbowed middle classes, looking after their interests alone, have been defeated.
Of course, wba1 brands me an extremist.
The irony is I have the same views as the majority.

[spud] 30/1/2021 20:23

Well the FT hasn't risen with the DOW and has finally become disconnected (at last) so there's no reason to think it'll follow the FAANG constituents down. But I guess we'll see. spud

[father jack1] 30/1/2021 18:55

Yep, I have noticed a strong correlation between anti-vaxxers and the brexity portion of the population. Lucky they aren't running the country.....oh wait 🙄. Can't see another market crash with vaccine rollouts cranking into gear. US equities are overdue a pullback which would drag the FTSE down too.

[dr biotech] 30/1/2021 17:37

I seem to recall there a was a deadline for the Italian units around the end of jan. Perhaps we’ll get news on those next week. Could be an interesting month ahead, at least with some market turbulence.

IG won’t allow me (or anyone else) to deal in GameStop anymore. I did have a look at it but whilst it’s currently clearly overvalued, shorting it is a dangerous game. I tried to open a short, couldn’t as they didn’t have the stock, then it pretty much doubled. Bullet dodged, though my trading account isn’t significant.


I think the EU have dropped the ball on the vaccine front. Does make me laugh though as there are plenty of brexiteers (seems to be a large crossover) who claim the vaccine is dangerous/rushed/not needed and they won’t take it, but then say it’s good the UK has it before Europe...

[spud] 30/1/2021 16:23

I think you're both correct. The Market doesn't like uncertainty and this imo, has been a drag case for too long. I too would be tempted to add to my already significant holdings should the price retreat to £3 but can't see it if I'm honest, but I guess anything is possible in this Market. It'll be interesting to see the Market's take on the Euro vaccination shenanigans on Monday - I doubt they'll be complementary. spud

[ianood] 30/1/2021 15:22

1wenty -
"I also think that the french business with its cours connu dimension has a massively negative drag on the share price. As soon as the market appreciates that this weight on the share price has gone there will be a decent relief trade."
My sentiment entirely - this, I think, could be the catalyst to move AV. on significantly.

[1wenty] 30/1/2021 12:54

Hi cjac IMO day traders,frontrunners,scalpers and other short term investors who can have a dramatic effect on price require a catalyst for trade that offers the prospect of a quick resolution. The market in general struggles with any change that happens in slow motion or the payoff is beyond their investment horizon. They will always find other fish to fry in the meantime.
I also think that the french business with its cours connu dimension has a massively negative drag on the share price. As soon as the market appreciates that this weight on the share price has gone there will be a decent relief trade.

[wba1] 30/1/2021 11:24

The irony is that I do have some common ground with Richyggg but, unlike him, I am no extremist. For example; I share his doubts about climate modelling, but do not doubt climate change. My views are largely those of Hans Von Storch (and the late, great Freeman Dyson) that the modelling is inadequate and that, without adequate modelling, policy can only be based on the precautionary principle. Similarly, I have criticisms of the EU. One of the most stupid initiatives I can recall was the outlawing of gender as a factor in financial services. The mad Greek commissioner who drove it did not seem to understand, even though she is a woman, that it would result in women being penalised for some products such as motor insurance. And she certainly did not understand the actuarial basis for rating.

But politics is never about the ideal model. It is about choosing the least worst option. And we can see the worst option from the last 4 years in the USA, run by Farage' God, the Donald. I always wondered how Nige stayed out of prison (where he could have shared cells with so many ex UKIP MEPs and members) given his expense and tax scams. All groups have their bad apples (Huhne, Elphicke, Onasanya etc), but an honest man must have felt very lonely in UKIP.

[richyggg] 30/1/2021 11:23

Back to Aviva ...

[richyggg] 30/1/2021 10:58

And do pose those questions.. it is all hubris

[richyggg] 30/1/2021 10:24

I only very occasionally post when provoked by those who attempt to shut down debate and pontificate and throw mud at the silent majority.
I have no causes, except to challenge dull thinking.

[wba1] 30/1/2021 10:16

Spud; I suggest you look at Richyggg's posting record which seems to be focused on threads like UKIP and climate denial. I know we are a broad church here but I am not sure what it has to do with Aviva. I am tempted to take him on by posing questions about certain criminal activities associated with his causes, but it may be better to deal with him by moderation.

Of course, I would be happy if he used this thread to discuss Aviva....