Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[spud] 12/2/2021 11:48

A well reasoned and succinct post muscle. Now lets leave this Brexit stuff to a Brexit thread (unless of course you guys want me to create one....)

spud

[muscletrade] 12/2/2021 11:01

Wba1, I respect and value the contribution you make on this board with all things insurance.It is insightful and helpful. I would be even more respectful and grateful if you could stop lecturing us on Brexit and the incompetence of the administration.

Despite what you say it is clear that you are not reconciled to Brexit and in your words "are appalled at the incompetence and dishonesty of our team in the negotiations"

Most certainly the outcome of the negotiations are suboptimal and lest we forget have still not been ratified by the EU parliament. (the way things are going they might never be).
However, many feel they were the best outcome that could be achieved given the hand our team were dealt.(and obviously I mean the Johnson team, not the May team who were a disaster).
The Negotiations might have had a completely different outcome if a determined and bitter remain rump had not spent years from day1 doing their utmost to undermine and overturn a legitimate referendum result that they found almost impossible to accept, and still do.

This rear guard action most certainly encouraged the EU to do their level best using every underhand and dishonest and malevolent tactic available to overturn the result, and if that did not work make it as painful for the UK as possible. The EU are still in denial and pursue the "inflict pain" tactics even though it is not in the best interest of their constituents.

So one could, and I do argue that that the bitter undemocratic remain rump must bare their share of responsibility for the negotiations outcome. Not to understand and accept this is an effort to air brush history.

Despite overwhelming odds Brexit has happened and sooner or later some or all of the most egregious elements of the negotiations will be binned and hopefully common sense will prevail but I suspect it will be a long haul.

As you remind us, no one can complain if the EU or, let's say more particularly France does what it does to protect their interests. That does not mean we have to like it or let it go and play nice. We have interests too and if necessary we should do what we need to do to protect them, and we will.

[dr biotech] 12/2/2021 10:11

For those of us still working, the affects are showing. We are experiencing delays and increased costs in imports, increased cost (particularly when you add in time) of exports - smaller items (less than 500gbp) just aren’t worth it. Think we’ll have to open a European base (and export the jobs) or just stop doing business there.

For our business (80% could be classed as essential in covid terms) brexit is turning out to be mess that we thought it would be. Actually worse than covid. May get better with time, but I can’t see how businesses that are mostly small value exports will survive.

Shame, but it is what it is.

[eurofox] 12/2/2021 10:06

give it a rest gentlemen/ladies ... now, where's my handbag

[father jack1] 12/2/2021 09:42

Whichever way you voted, Brexit is an economic act of self-harm which will lower the living standards of everyone in this country. Misguided notions of British exceptionalism and wilful dishonesty are no substitute for declining wealth and influence.

[geckotheglorious] 12/2/2021 09:38

WBA1
"I don't know and neither does anyone else on this board, but Europe is not to blame if it happens so do not blame them for looking after their own interests - we chose to leave."

If the EU continues to negotiate without "good faith" as it has to date then YES, it will be to blame...

That you are a Remainer was never in doubt. You can spot them a mile away!

Just as you can spot a Leaver a mile away as well!

The former tend to be "Little Europeans" whilst the latter are smeared as "Little Englanders" but actually want to engage with the world, especially ASIA, on the UK's terms, not the EU's.

EU is in terminal decline. The SUN is rising in the East, Asia is developing fast on many fronts.

[wba1] 12/2/2021 09:14

There seems to be some misunderstanding about my recent posts in response to the Brexit posts. My position is very simple;

* Brexit is done and we need to make the best of a bad job (I voted remain but am more appalled at the incompetence and dishonesty of our team in the negotiations).

* My initial response made one very simple point. If we choose confrontation with Europe they may suffer, but we will lose more. Big beats small.

* Of course we can develop beyond Europe, but that takes time. In the short and medium term the price for leaving vastly outweighs the benefit, whatever happens on the long term horizon.

Financial services is no different to the rest of the economy in that new opportunities arise but the immediate effect is the loss of business and jobs and tax income. The Amsterdam fiasco is just a bellwether rather than significant itself. The real question which occurs now is whether, as things develop, we find that financial services is in the same boat as fishing and agriculture (or Northern Ireland), where all the promises made by dishonest politicians unwind and entire communities feel betrayed. I don't know and neither does anyone else on this board, but Europe is not to blame if it happens so do not blame them for looking after their own interests - we chose to leave.

[muscletrade] 12/2/2021 07:02

Europe risks cutting off its nose to spite its face on financial services
Brussels' determination to rein in the City of London could be self-defeating, experts warn

[ianood] 11/2/2021 19:08

wba1, having spent 40 years in the City across money markets, fx and fixed interest I hope and believe that you are over stating Europe v London. From my experience Frankfurt and Paris provide little by way of challenge to the UK's experience and infrastructure be it financial or legal. The anticipated headcount transfer has no where near happened and I still believe is unlikely to. I can't speak for the Insurance industry per se and bow to your superior experience, however, I do note that from the Pru's latest report that their aspirations are now firmly linked to Asia. I seriously attach great importance to the Trans Pacific Partnership and UK's aspirations to membership.

[muscletrade] 11/2/2021 16:04

Brussels and France in particular seem to be having a political nervous breakdown. So determined are they in trying to inflict harm on the UK that they are prepared to deny business throughout the EU the ready and easy access to deepest ,cheapest and most well managed pool of liquidity on the planet.
No real surprise to anyone that has been paying attention.Pathetic.

[geckotheglorious] 11/2/2021 16:04

WBA1
"All the other members are pretty small change apart from Japan, with whom we have a deal"

All the other members are pretty small change FOR NOW.
Times are a changing.
And how many Asian nations that are surging economically, demographically are not currently even members (but potential future members)

And tech advancement is leading the way.

In many ways an exciting time to be alive but also one with considerable worrying developments.

The energy, the vibrancy comes from Asia.

America is unfortunately in terminal decline - overly indebted, the chickens will soon come home to roost.

[wba1] 11/2/2021 15:45

No problem with joining the trans-Pacific bloc (although there is no realistic way it can balance in the short or medium term the impact of leaving Europe). My comment, however, was specific to the probable outcome of a fight with Europe and not aimed at deals elsewhere. The TPP is interesting mainly due to the potential of US membership with the regime change and using it as a back door to that deal. All the other members are pretty small change apart from Japan, with whom we have a deal. And I have doubts about the US position because a key objection which led them to withdraw was ISDS - and the Democrats dislike this as much as the Republicans.

[cyberian] 11/2/2021 15:42

wba1....vetry good point and have taken that on board, however. I think Gecko view has a lot of merit.

[geckotheglorious] 11/2/2021 15:28

WBA1

Hence the importance of UK joining a more powerful bloc - "11-nation trans-Pacific partnership"

Europe is done.
It is in decline.

Asia is the future. Economic growth, demographics, tech advancement.

Best to pivot away from an overly bureaucratic sclerotic EU that seeks only to screw us over at every opportunity.

[wba1] 11/2/2021 15:23

The problem with retaliation is that whoever has the strongest hand always wins - and that is overall strength, not just in banking or financial services. And whatever we think of the EU, it is bigger and stronger than the UK with the result that any action on our part can be met with stronger action on their part. This is why financial services should never have been left out of the initial deal. It was pretty obvious that Carney understood the wider geopolitics and a reason why the government did not want a replacement in the Carney image. We now face some consequences. Only this morning we see reports that share trading volumes in Amsterdam surpassed London in January (a minor matter but symbolic). The bigger question is what happens to sectors such as asset management where domicile is a key issue and was assisted by passporting.

I am sorry to be unable to share the belief that we can face down the EU in financial matters, but I hope I am wrong.

[muscletrade] 11/2/2021 15:19

Barnier on Manoeuvres for French Presidential race. Expect no help or common sense from him or indeed France.
Personal view only.

[cyberian] 11/2/2021 14:42

Further to my comment on Andrew Bailey Gov. of BoE it is for some perhaps worth reading the Business article in the TIMES today about his credibility at stake over the 494 page by Dame Elizabeth Gloster on London and Capital Finance (LCF). He expressed his anger at her report at a Select Committee hearing. However, her report on the FCA is quite damning and we also have to await further reports over the Neil Woodford conduct etc.and the former's oversight or lack of it. I personally witnessed Dame Gloster at the Ambranovich v the late Berevoski (sp.?) trial a few years ago over 10 days and she is pretty analytical and impressive Judge...formidable! So maybe Bailey maybe the wrong man in the wrong job?....interesting to see what further flack or light is thrown-up on the FCA.

PS. I do think that the UK Treasury etc. WILL retaliate quite strongly if the EU continue to restrict and/or play silly games...I have just seen on Bloomberg that Barnier is warning UK banks for further delay over EU access.

[1robbob] 11/2/2021 12:39

Thanks wba1

To 'Kitchen Sink' the 2020 figures would be a good move politically...don't want to encourage the BoE or HMG or The Treasury in anyway whatsoever

[cyberian] 11/2/2021 12:37

Zurich share price fall not that significant today and recent range is reasonably reassuring for us here at AV. I agree with "wba1" that last year is a partially corrective one and that where some others entities that have seen a fall in revenues the market is less concerned. I have been surprised that some companies that have taken a bit of a hit have seen an immediate positive reaction in their SP, I assume with investors taking a forward view. On the BoE issue with the EU on financial matters, I sense that they can act/effect either party and that the EU will compromise to preserve their own position and not to provoke some protective measures by the UK, or for the UK to indeed engage in a change of direction in the global financial markets unilaterally. Not too sure if I like the skills of the current BoE Chief but his subordinates are quite pretty skillful and experienced that they will see/enforce any action to be measured, balanced and effective. I think that we should wait-out the hopefully temporary somewhat unhelpful attitude by some elements within the EU....things will calm down and a more rational approach prevail in due course.

Again I think the analysis provided by 4/5 posters has more value to us than my humble comments/views...investing can get emotional but one needs the input of more experienced brain power than others like me although well intended.

[muscletrade] 11/2/2021 11:45

@wba1, thanks for info and yr analysis.

[wba1] 11/2/2021 11:36

Just been looking at the Zurich 2020 results which are out today. I have focused on their P&C and cjac will be better to comment on their long term business. They have declared lower profits due entirely to 'covid and increased catastrophe losses', but with underlying profitability adjusted to remove covid and normalise cat losses increasing. But this does not tell the half. In the supplementary spreadsheets you can see the breakdowns by business, region and year. I have mentioned before the ability of CEOs to use reserving for manipulating profit, and that is what Mario Greco has done. In all regions prior year loss development on p&c losses is substantially less favourable in 2020 than 2019. The cat numbers for 2020 also look surprisingly high to me (but this is less conclusive than the prior year pattern as cat numbers are very volatile). With cat losses in 2020 at 2019 levels and with prior year development as in 2019 Zurich COR would have reduced by 6.3% in Europe and 7.4% in North America - their 2 big units.

Zurich have chosen to kitchen sink 2020. Do not be surprised if others, including Aviva, do the same.

[eurofox] 11/2/2021 08:52

wait till after options expiry on Friday

[p0pper] 11/2/2021 08:20

muscle, yeah I know just venting my anger, I don't know about a glass ceiling at 350 I reckon we have a reinforced concrete one lol :)