Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[1robbob] 30/12/2020 12:32

PLEASE, please, please
NO SHARE BUY-BACKS !!!!!

Also. Do take into account that any sale proceeds are unlikely (at best) to be received before Q4 2021. So Specials would be in 2022, but could/should be well signposted in advance.

[karv1] 30/12/2020 12:05

IF everything with the GT/France goes great. The excess money I am guessing will be split 3 ways, buybacks/specials/debt/ the only one of them that will have a real impact on the share price is specials, will there not be a see-saw effect between special and share price position and after each round the total core value will have gone down, causing the share price position to be weaker after each round and will not recover until we get to the 3 core business valuation position which will be 30% fewer profits.

[1robbob] 30/12/2020 12:01

Hi cjac39 happy New Year and lets hope a prosperous one

Although we have calculated from 2 different perspectives our conclusions are not far apart.
Your analysis concludes a share price circa 375p and mine 335p (ex all disposals)
Plus..Your return of Capital of 75pps mine £1.00ps (although mine is an outright guess !!)

As capital distributions are unlikely before 2021, I would conclude that a current price of 400p looks about right....provided AB keeps up the visability of the stock in the Market. In the past the stock has disappeared from stock market visability for months on end, this is not good....idle tongues etc!!!

[ftime] 30/12/2020 11:48

Whatsup you are correct. Quote me happy.com and General Accident are Aviva's motor insurance trading names that will show on comparison sites, so they get a slice of that market too.

[spud] 30/12/2020 11:36

Geck - Your last post on the infernal Brexit sh1te. I don't like banning anyone but will do (for 1 month) on the next mention of the B word. So let's all play nice and enjoy the run up to 4 quid next year whilst pocketing the juicy dividends. spud

[cjac39] 30/12/2020 11:25

hi 1robbob

i have done this maths before on here i think. its best to look at multiples (or fractions of own funds) rather than PEs i would say for the life businesses and wba has posted some thoughts on valn of GI relative to premiums.

so assume they sell europe and other bits at own funds (which they have exceeded so far) then assume they pay down debt of £3 say not £1.5 but that the divi is funded out of cashflow and cost cutting which is where i think they have pitched it and you get left with a) the amount available to be distributed, and b) the reduced own funds / GI business metrics.

id have to dig back through the posts but the big pic maths from memory would be own funds reducing from 27 less debt 9 to being around 21 less debt of 6 and therefore a reduction in net own funds to 15. so approx 15% greater than mkt cap today.

this poss slightly over values the life business (although not relative to L&G and others I've seen trade above own funds) but for sure undervalues the GI business so is ballpark about correct.

and of course £3bln cash return would be c75p.

[whatsup32] 30/12/2020 11:07

The Times 'Business market's
"Car and home insurer is lined up as target after confused deal"
Direct line is the latest potential target after £500m sale of Confused .com and £594m for Go Compare .
Would think this is positive for Aviva . Also Aviva has a brand name that doesn't rely on comparison sites plus not sure if everyone knows but Aviva also has another brand 'General Insurer"??? . I remember I was with Aviva and as their quote was high I did a search and found General to be 25% cheaper . It was owned by Aviva.

[1robbob] 30/12/2020 11:03

In a vain attempt to return to matters AVIVA
Valuation of the shares rests on two calculations

1) Where does the share price rest as a pure UK/Ireland & Canada play after all the disposal
2) How much £s will be returned DIRECTLY to shareholders from the Disposal programme when completed

My guesses !!...others will have much better input

1) Consensus earnings estimates for 2020 are circa 50.0p. I guestimate that 66.6% of this represents UK/Ireand & Canada so an EPS of 33.3p per share
Regardless of ABs efforts, I can't see the Market putting a PE of more than 10x
So the maximum post disposal share price would be circa 335p
As the dividend was set to allow for the disposal programme. Lets assume that for once the Board doesn't change its mind AGAIN!!! So a 21p diviend at 335p gives a yield of 6.25%
...To me that looks about right, given the dreadful track record of the stock.
Anything above that will be down to ABs ability to improve the operating ratios

2)Capital Returns to Shareholders. This I will leave to others who have a much better handle on likely proceeds and reserving ratios.
All I will say is the cash has to be returned to the shareholders and not in share buybacks

Guess at £4bn returned to shareholders over the next 2 years or £1 per share

[mo123] 30/12/2020 10:55

End of year basic read:

hxxps://investomania.co.uk/2020/12/can-aviva-shares-recover-to-beat-the-ftse-100-index-after-a-25-price-fall-in-2020/

[edmundshaw] 30/12/2020 10:48

Please. There are more than two types of people in the UK, please stop trying to divide us into rabid Trotskyite Europhiles and UKIP little Englanders who want to reinvent The Empire. And when you have, talk about it somewhere else.

[wba1] 30/12/2020 10:38

Gecko; my last word to you as I have now put you on filter as I prefer to discuss Aviva on here (and I would respectfully request Spud to ban you if you continue to use this thread for non-Aviva posts without any attempt to stick to Aviva as a subject).

Your entire posting history betrays you. I suggest anyone on this thread who thinks otherwise (or agrees with Gecko's political views, which is entirely ok as long as they are not allowed to take over this thread) checks his history. It is very hard to find any posts which are not about his political views as opposed to the share meant to be the focus of the thread on which he posts. It is clear that he is a political troll, of the type only too common on the extreme fringes of all parties.

I hope we can now return to the subject of Aviva. If not, and Gecko continues to pollute this thread, I will cease posting and focus on Aviva discussions where it is unnecessary to wade through sewage to pick up the gems from the likes of cjac39. Some may see this as allowing Gecko to win; I just see it as better use of my time.

[pvi1] 30/12/2020 10:31

Everyone seems full of festive cheer. Happy New year

[1robbob] 30/12/2020 10:31

Returning to AVIVA !!!

Calendar for 2021:

21st January: Interim Dividend paid (7.0p)
4th March: Full Year 2020 Results
6th May: Annual General Meeting
14th May: Final Dividend paid (14.0p foecast)
27th May: Trading Update Q1
12th August: Half Yerar Results
1st October: Interim Dividend paid (7.0p+?)
25th November: Trading Update Q3

[mo123] 30/12/2020 10:29

I see this thread is starting to become infested with a ranter, who is intoxicated with his own puerile diatribe.

[jordaggy] 30/12/2020 10:07

Well said GtG.

[geckotheglorious] 30/12/2020 09:57

wba1
Post 6395
"I am afraid that Cassini, much as I respect his Aviva posts, seems to have a view of the LSE as obsolete as the sad Little Englander bile of Gecko. But we are all entitled to the odd delusion. Gecko's seems to be that he worked in every industry he ever seeks to make comments on - despite clearly knowing nothing about them"

The usual uneducated smear of being a Little Englander just because I voted Leave.
Hilarious.

Only Little person round here is the Little European who cant stand not getting his way....

Nope, never said I've worked in every Industry. Show me where I made that claim.

I'd trust Ukippers (both Left and Right)far more than entitled Remainer scum like you who think they are better than everyone..

Only deluded people round here are Remoaners who think the UK is too weak, not good enough to be an independent nation, and think we should cede our freedom and independence to a bureaucratic and undemocratic union of European nations.

You lot also seem to think our membership is the best thing since sliced bread but you'll change your mind when the EU collapses and fails to drag us with it.....

[geckotheglorious] 30/12/2020 09:51

RCTurner2
Post 6394
"I must admit I never understand these posts. People have been saying the same thing for years, yet none of this ever seems to happen"

How long do you think the US, and the Rest of the WORLD can engage in unlimited QE, aka money printing.

And the longer they do what do you think the economic consequences of such are?

[geckotheglorious] 30/12/2020 09:50

Dr Biotech
Post 6391

"So what exactly did you do for a career? When you posted as CTR you said you visited every major “pharmaceutical factory” in Europe. Now it seems you also worked in the city. Sounds like an interesting vocation"

??

I never posted as CTR.

Can you show me where he made that claim of visiting every major pharmaceutical factory because I bet he didn't.

As an aside you do realise that one can work in the City and visit every Pharmaceutical factory in Europe

IF

one is a Pharms/Biotech analyst at a City institution you dope.

All irrelevant as I never posted as that individual(I assume you're talking about my brother who lives in Canada) nor was I a Drugs sector analyst.

Nice try though.

[pete160] 30/12/2020 09:38

Perhaps he did go to all of those places - as an Amazon delivery driver :-)

[rcturner2] 30/12/2020 08:40

"Global insurers are toast when the debt illusion of wealth bursts.
As is the banking system

Interest rates are too low.
Pension/Annuities are screwed.
The economic tsunami heading our way is worse than 2007/2008."

I must admit I never understand these posts. People have been saying the same thing for years, yet none of this ever seems to happen.

[unastubbs] 30/12/2020 07:39

hope everyone enjoyed the xmas break. i know i did. :) just scrolled through what to me seemed to be a number of off topic posts. clearly brexit affects aviva in a general sense, as it impinges upon every UK company but surely there is somewhere else that views on this can be posted so we can keep this board focussed on AV.?

[dr biotech] 29/12/2020 23:14

So what exactly did you do for a career? When you posted as CTR you said you visited every major “pharmaceutical factory” in Europe. Now it seems you also worked in the city. Sounds like an interesting vocation.