Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[eurofox] 31/12/2020 11:49

doom, and more doom - today was simply a well-executed bear raid - to be taken advantage of

[karv1] 31/12/2020 11:40

I would look at it from the other direction and ask why has the share price has not gone up. (1) I would guess the GT issue would be 1 factor. I think this will be the game-changer moment for the share price if they can sell all of AV France.


(2) investors dream of becoming rich a company that is going to shrink by 30% is never going to make you rich. A company is never going to grow by shrinking this will put off long term investors.

(3)if everything goes well no one knows what is going to happen with the money ie buyback/ specials /debt, the uncertainty is never a good position for new shareholders.

(4) AS the share price rises old shareholders that feel like they been screwed will sell soon as they feel they can live with the losses.

Not everyone is able to understand the in-depth calculations from some on here.
Some will just see a share price that's down 30% this year and a dividend that's been slashed by 30% and profits that are going to be slashed by 30%

[1robbob] 31/12/2020 11:27

To cjac39 and other Insurance Industry Gurus

I am guestimating that circa 66.6% of Aviva's earnings eminate from the
Uk/Ireland and Canada long term core of the business and that this equates to circa £1.35bn at the eps level

Looking at other comparable businesses, what earnings should AB be able to generate from them?

[hhhold2] 31/12/2020 11:18

Aviva still on a PE of 6 ?

long term this company is going up as its been shooting itself in the foot for far to long and is still far to cheap and even if there's another crash its will just be another opportunity to add,

if AB cleans it all up & then Aviva gets taken out that will do also,

putting the chart on long term what's not to like here still?

every dog has its day.

[father jack1] 31/12/2020 09:46

Wholeheartedly agree, this is a straightforward buy at this level. Even at 360p you have a guaranteed 6% yield, in this zero interest rate environment, that'll do.

[cjac39] 31/12/2020 08:33

A solid level to add at. You cannot escape the logic that c40% of the market cap at this level will be realised in cash in next 12 months and the residual business net of debt is still worth the current market cap. And you get paid 6.5% defence on the way. Crazy.

If the U.K. income funds wake up to this and start trusting this new mgmt team it should surely start appearing in more top 10 lists

[eurofox] 31/12/2020 08:09

added at 322.2

[geckotheglorious] 30/12/2020 15:20

Anthony,

Never hurts to take a profit - and it sounds you are a weak hold from here.
Why not trim a slice, take your profit, and keep the rump.

Just my thoughts.

You could trim and see the price fall back - you'd feel better knowing you took some profit despite such eroding in what remains of your position.

Alternately you could hold it all, and see more of your profit erode if it falls.

If it rises, you've the reverse problem.

Really down to you but as a weak hold it never hurts to trim(especially if you've an overweight position in this one relative to the rest of your porty) and take a profit. You can put that to work in a company you've identified as offering better growth/risk reward prospects for example..or even spend it! Pay off some debt...

[woodhawk] 30/12/2020 15:08

The only advice I would give is don't ask for advice on whether to hold, buy or sell shares on these boards. Make your own decisions and if you keep getting it 'wrong'... sell up and move on.

[dr biotech] 30/12/2020 14:53

As I once read, if you sold all you holdings tomorrow would you buy back the same shares? If not why are you holding?

It’s a good way of thinking sometimes (obv dealing charges have to be considered), but if you have a better idea do that. I’m hoping for a better year here, but have also made a resolution to sell these by the end of the year (2021). AB is doing something radical, and I think most of the gains (or losses) from he actions will occur in the next 6-12 months.

[anthony100] 30/12/2020 13:46

Any views on whether it is worthwhile trimming Aviva holdings today or tomorrow?

Fund managers will be squariing their booke to maximise bonus assessments.

At 330p this is a holď not a buy for me...no adding to holding... but i'm not averse to paying a bit of stsmp duty..if that could result in a trading profit.

[anthony100] 30/12/2020 13:45

Any views on whether it is worthwhile trimming Aviva holdings today or tomorrow?

Fund managers will be squariing their booke to maximise bonus assessments.

At 330p this is a holď not a buy for me...no adding to holding... but i'm not averse to paying a bit of stsmp duty..if that could result in a trading profit.

[cyberian] 30/12/2020 13:06

Difficult to really understand why LGEN is showing better gains than here....at least for the moment. I am in both by the way.

[1robbob] 30/12/2020 12:32

PLEASE, please, please
NO SHARE BUY-BACKS !!!!!

Also. Do take into account that any sale proceeds are unlikely (at best) to be received before Q4 2021. So Specials would be in 2022, but could/should be well signposted in advance.

[karv1] 30/12/2020 12:05

IF everything with the GT/France goes great. The excess money I am guessing will be split 3 ways, buybacks/specials/debt/ the only one of them that will have a real impact on the share price is specials, will there not be a see-saw effect between special and share price position and after each round the total core value will have gone down, causing the share price position to be weaker after each round and will not recover until we get to the 3 core business valuation position which will be 30% fewer profits.

[1robbob] 30/12/2020 12:01

Hi cjac39 happy New Year and lets hope a prosperous one

Although we have calculated from 2 different perspectives our conclusions are not far apart.
Your analysis concludes a share price circa 375p and mine 335p (ex all disposals)
Plus..Your return of Capital of 75pps mine £1.00ps (although mine is an outright guess !!)

As capital distributions are unlikely before 2021, I would conclude that a current price of 400p looks about right....provided AB keeps up the visability of the stock in the Market. In the past the stock has disappeared from stock market visability for months on end, this is not good....idle tongues etc!!!

[ftime] 30/12/2020 11:48

Whatsup you are correct. Quote me happy.com and General Accident are Aviva's motor insurance trading names that will show on comparison sites, so they get a slice of that market too.

[spud] 30/12/2020 11:36

Geck - Your last post on the infernal Brexit sh1te. I don't like banning anyone but will do (for 1 month) on the next mention of the B word. So let's all play nice and enjoy the run up to 4 quid next year whilst pocketing the juicy dividends. spud

[cjac39] 30/12/2020 11:25

hi 1robbob

i have done this maths before on here i think. its best to look at multiples (or fractions of own funds) rather than PEs i would say for the life businesses and wba has posted some thoughts on valn of GI relative to premiums.

so assume they sell europe and other bits at own funds (which they have exceeded so far) then assume they pay down debt of £3 say not £1.5 but that the divi is funded out of cashflow and cost cutting which is where i think they have pitched it and you get left with a) the amount available to be distributed, and b) the reduced own funds / GI business metrics.

id have to dig back through the posts but the big pic maths from memory would be own funds reducing from 27 less debt 9 to being around 21 less debt of 6 and therefore a reduction in net own funds to 15. so approx 15% greater than mkt cap today.

this poss slightly over values the life business (although not relative to L&G and others I've seen trade above own funds) but for sure undervalues the GI business so is ballpark about correct.

and of course £3bln cash return would be c75p.

[whatsup32] 30/12/2020 11:07

The Times 'Business market's
"Car and home insurer is lined up as target after confused deal"
Direct line is the latest potential target after £500m sale of Confused .com and £594m for Go Compare .
Would think this is positive for Aviva . Also Aviva has a brand name that doesn't rely on comparison sites plus not sure if everyone knows but Aviva also has another brand 'General Insurer"??? . I remember I was with Aviva and as their quote was high I did a search and found General to be 25% cheaper . It was owned by Aviva.

[1robbob] 30/12/2020 11:03

In a vain attempt to return to matters AVIVA
Valuation of the shares rests on two calculations

1) Where does the share price rest as a pure UK/Ireland & Canada play after all the disposal
2) How much £s will be returned DIRECTLY to shareholders from the Disposal programme when completed

My guesses !!...others will have much better input

1) Consensus earnings estimates for 2020 are circa 50.0p. I guestimate that 66.6% of this represents UK/Ireand & Canada so an EPS of 33.3p per share
Regardless of ABs efforts, I can't see the Market putting a PE of more than 10x
So the maximum post disposal share price would be circa 335p
As the dividend was set to allow for the disposal programme. Lets assume that for once the Board doesn't change its mind AGAIN!!! So a 21p diviend at 335p gives a yield of 6.25%
...To me that looks about right, given the dreadful track record of the stock.
Anything above that will be down to ABs ability to improve the operating ratios

2)Capital Returns to Shareholders. This I will leave to others who have a much better handle on likely proceeds and reserving ratios.
All I will say is the cash has to be returned to the shareholders and not in share buybacks

Guess at £4bn returned to shareholders over the next 2 years or £1 per share

[mo123] 30/12/2020 10:55

End of year basic read:

hxxps://investomania.co.uk/2020/12/can-aviva-shares-recover-to-beat-the-ftse-100-index-after-a-25-price-fall-in-2020/

[edmundshaw] 30/12/2020 10:48

Please. There are more than two types of people in the UK, please stop trying to divide us into rabid Trotskyite Europhiles and UKIP little Englanders who want to reinvent The Empire. And when you have, talk about it somewhere else.

[wba1] 30/12/2020 10:38

Gecko; my last word to you as I have now put you on filter as I prefer to discuss Aviva on here (and I would respectfully request Spud to ban you if you continue to use this thread for non-Aviva posts without any attempt to stick to Aviva as a subject).

Your entire posting history betrays you. I suggest anyone on this thread who thinks otherwise (or agrees with Gecko's political views, which is entirely ok as long as they are not allowed to take over this thread) checks his history. It is very hard to find any posts which are not about his political views as opposed to the share meant to be the focus of the thread on which he posts. It is clear that he is a political troll, of the type only too common on the extreme fringes of all parties.

I hope we can now return to the subject of Aviva. If not, and Gecko continues to pollute this thread, I will cease posting and focus on Aviva discussions where it is unnecessary to wade through sewage to pick up the gems from the likes of cjac39. Some may see this as allowing Gecko to win; I just see it as better use of my time.